Chance to hit on LCS

[rwbatema]

Hi

I can't seem to match monsters chance to hit on as displayed on the lying character screen (LCS).
I realize, that by definition, the LCS lies, but I remember being able to match the chance to hit on the LCS. I guess I'll go through an example and maybe someone can tell me where I went wrong.

Character: Paladin
Difficulty: Nightmare
clvl: 63
AR: 1996
def: 2830

Monster: Death Lord
Area: Worldstone Keep Level 2
Area lvl: 65 (levels.txt)
mlvl: 61 (monsters.txt)
AR: 180 (monsters.txt)
def: 130 (monsters.txt)

LCS
chance to hit: 62%
chance to be hit: 44%

Getting Hit

Okay, Death Lords use the skill "bloodlord frenzy" at level 1.
bloodlord frenzy at level one adds:
ToHit: 10
AR bonus: 30%
I assume this means...
AR = (180 + 10) * (1 + 30%)
AR = 247
4AR = 988
Note: I haven't adjusted the AR for the area level. Should I?
mlvl gets adjusted to 65

chance_to_be_hit = 2 * mlvl / (clvl + mlvl) * 4AR / (4AR + char_def)
chance_to_be_hit = 2 * 65 / (63 + 65) * 988 / (988 + 2830)
chance_to_be_hit = 26%

Here's a thought. Maybe the LCS is not calculating my defense correctly.
This doesn't seem likely as the defense displayed is correct - I think.
The Paladin has level 15 (defense += 235%)
base_defense = 2830 / (1 + 235%)
base_defense = 845
I think the shield is about 150 defense.
Applying Holy Shield to only the shield would result in a final defense of
defense = 695 + 150 * (1 + 235%)
defense = 1197

chance_to_be_hit = 2 * mlvl / (clvl + mlvl) * 4AR / (4AR + char_def)
chance_to_be_hit = 2 * 65 / (63 + 65) * 988 / (988 + 1197)
chance_to_be_hit = 46%

This is pretty close, so maybe this is whats going on. Can anyone confirm this?

Attacking

Note: I haven't adjusted the def for the area level. Should I?

chance_to_hit = 2 * clvl / (clvl + mlvl) * AR / (AR + mon_def)
chance_to_hit = 2 * 63 / (63 + 65) * 1996 / (1996 + 130)
chance_to_hit = 92%

Clearly, I'm missing something here as the LCS says 62%.

I don't think so, but maybe the monsters get a 4X for defense too.
chance_to_hit = 2 * clvl / (clvl + mlvl) * AR / (AR + 4*mon_def)
chance_to_hit = 2 * 63 / (63 + 65) * 1996 / (1996 + 4*130)
chance_to_hit = 78%

Still not right. Any ideas?

Thanks in advance.

[Ruvanal]

Yes you need to adjust for the area level and if it is champion (mlvl=arealevel+2) or boss/minion (mlvl=arealevel+3). Also you have to adjust the AR and DR figures by the values in monlvl.txt if the monster has NoRatio=0 (pretty much all the hostile monsters that you will ever encounter). The "something-L" are used in all but the realm-nonLadder games for which set of figures to use. The calculation would be adjusted_stat=monstats.attribute[difficulty]*monlvl.attribute[mlvl][difficulty]/100.

So for a
Monster: Death Lord
Area: Worldstone Keep Level 2
Area lvl: 65 (levels.txt)
mlvl: 61 (monsters.txt)
AR: 180 (monsters.txt)
def: 130 (monsters.txt)
the adjusted figures would be
mlvl=65
adjusted AR= 180*1260/100= 2268
adjusted DR= 130*876/100= 1138

for your chance to hit one it would be
chance_to_hit = 2 * clvl / (clvl + mlvl) * AR / (AR + mon_def)
chance_to_hit = 2 * 63 / (63 + 65) * 1996 / (1996 + 1138)
chance_to_hit = 62%
which matches.

I will leave the chance of you getting hit to you to calculate.

[rwbatema]

Ruvanal, you're awesome.
I can't believe how quick and detailed your replies are to ALL my stupid little questions. I can't thank you enough.

[Kartoffelsalat]

I think the shield is about 150 defense.
Applying Holy Shield to only the shield would result in a final defense of
defense = 695 + 150 * (1 + 235%)
defense = 1197

Doesn't Holy Shield modify you're whole defense now, not just shield?

[adeyke]

It does modify the whole defense. rwbatema's point was that, since the numbers didn't match up, it may have been because, contrary to the LCS, the holy shield still just worked on the shield. This isn't actually the case, though.