Best Article on Iran Election Process I've seen

[Occhidiangela]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak05.html

It is a lengthy discussion of how Rafsanjani is still a rival to Khameni, and this election was part of his attempt at rebalancing the power relationship that had slid toward Khameni's favor.

Good stuff, beats the hell out of the crap the media is putting out.

Occhi

[kandrathe]

Good stuff...

Quite. I still am unsure if the uprising will grow underground to become a new revolution, but I suspect it is going to be just another Tianamen Square. Khamani consolidates his power, forces his enemies to revel themselves, then cracks down and attempts to crush the people into submission.

It might work for awhile, but I suspect the Iranians will not be so easily kept in line. It seems a large contingent of urban dwellers and students are seeking change (not that Mousavi was much of a change). I also wonder if Obama's less bellicose diplomacy (and I suspect other future engagements) will continue to soften the hearts and minds of more Iranians over time. It's hard to stay mad at the "great Satan" when he invites you over to his house for some all beef bratwurst, and a non-alcoholic beverage to watch the fireworks.

[Quark]

Every time I hear from someone that we should be taking the hard stance in this I die a little inside. The US has been far too personally involved in Iran power struggles in the past to interfere directly in this. It just gives our enemies within Iran fuel.

We want the democratically inclined youth to win this struggle, but we can't help them.

[Ashock]

Every time I hear from someone that we should be taking the hard stance in this I die a little inside. The US has been far too personally involved in Iran power struggles in the past to interfere directly in this. It just gives our enemies within Iran fuel.

We want the democratically inclined youth to win this struggle, but we can't help them.

Good luck wanting that. Apperantly, you do not understand how tyranny works, do you?

[Quark]

Good luck wanting that. Apperantly, you do not understand how tyranny works, do you?

Clearly tyranny has always, 100% of the time been successful.

We cannot help them. Our "help" will only make it harder on them. It'll give the Iranian neocons an argument which is still too valid. The hostage crisis occurred because they thought we were starting a coup to reinstate the Shah. It didn't matter that none of that was true, they remembered the 1953 coup.

If these people need help, it can't come from us.

[Ashock]

Clearly tyranny has always, 100% of the time been successful.

We cannot help them. Our "help" will only make it harder on them. It'll give the Iranian neocons an argument which is still too valid. The hostage crisis occurred because they thought we were starting a coup to reinstate the Shah. It didn't matter that none of that was true, they remembered the 1953 coup.

If these people need help, it can't come from us.

Well, it's very simpe really. They can not change that country. The opposition will always get crushed. Simple as that. The election outcome was laughably predictable. Free elections in Iran? LOL.

That does not mean that I am advocating helping them. Frankly, I don't really care. I start caring if they go nuclear though. Like NK.

[Jester]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak05.html

It is a lengthy discussion of how Rafsanjani is still a rival to Khameni, and this election was part of his attempt at rebalancing the power relationship that had slid toward Khameni's favor.

Good stuff, beats the hell out of the crap the media is putting out.

Interesting. I wish I knew enough about the situation to judge what's actually happening, but that report sounds plausible enough. Thanks for the link.

-Jester

[Lissa]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KF16Ak05.html

It is a lengthy discussion of how Rafsanjani is still a rival to Khameni, and this election was part of his attempt at rebalancing the power relationship that had slid toward Khameni's favor.

Good stuff, beats the hell out of the crap the media is putting out.

Occhi

I'm not so sure the gamibt has failed yet. Rafsanjani is the leader of the council that oversees the laws and, more importantly, has the ability to remove Khameni from his post. *IF*, and that's a big if, Rafsanjani can show to the council that Khameni's rule is bringing about the potential destruction of Iran from within or can be shown to grabbing power and going against the revolution that started the present rule in Iran, Rafsanjani could get the council to remove Khameni and then institute a new clerical leader that is more in line with Rafsanjani's beliefs and allow more democracy within Iran. It all depends on if Rafsanjani can give enough rope to Khameni at this point to have Khameni effectively hang himself. If Khaemni doesn't fall for the trap, then Rafsanjani has basically hung himself. Right now they're both playing russian roulette and we'll have to see who ends up with the bullet.

[Swiss Mercenary]

Well, it's very simpe really. They can not change that country. The opposition will always get crushed. Simple as that. The election outcome was laughably predictable. Free elections in Iran? LOL.

Ever heard of South Korea?

[Crusader]

[kandrathe]

Funny, but fake.

[Lissa]

I'm not so sure the gamibt has failed yet. Rafsanjani is the leader of the council that oversees the laws and, more importantly, has the ability to remove Khameni from his post. *IF*, and that's a big if, Rafsanjani can show to the council that Khameni's rule is bringing about the potential destruction of Iran from within or can be shown to grabbing power and going against the revolution that started the present rule in Iran, Rafsanjani could get the council to remove Khameni and then institute a new clerical leader that is more in line with Rafsanjani's beliefs and allow more democracy within Iran. It all depends on if Rafsanjani can give enough rope to Khameni at this point to have Khameni effectively hang himself. If Khaemni doesn't fall for the trap, then Rafsanjani has basically hung himself. Right now they're both playing russian roulette and we'll have to see who ends up with the bullet.

Apparently things are heating up behind the scenes. Wednesday night, about 100 of the parliment members of Iran snub Ahmadajin's victory party. One cleric on the guardian council is calling for some of the protestors to be executed while the cleric most like to replace Khameni is calling the crack down an afront against Allah.. Mouvshi (or however you spell his name) is, and has been, under house arrest for about a week now (explains him not being seen in public).

One comment I saw, and it holds true, is someone has to become the Iranian Yeltsin for things to happen. Whether Mouvshi (again spelling) becomes that or someone else does, it's the only way the Iranian people will move forward to what they really want.

[Occhidiangela]

Ap Wednesday night, about 100 of the parliment members of Iran snub Ahmadajin's victory party.

Yes, that was a signal well sent.

One cleric on the guardian council is calling for some of the protestors to be executed while the cleric most like to replace Khameni is calling the crack down an afront against Allah..

Mouvshi (or however you spell his name) is, and has been, under house arrest for about a week now (explains him not being seen in public).

The smack down is happening, and Montezeri is probably heading back to Qum, his dreams once again frustrated.

One comment I saw, and it holds true, is someone has to become the Iranian Yeltsin for things to happen. Whether Mouvshi (again spelling) becomes that or someone else does, it's the only way the Iranian people will move forward to what they really want.

I'd say an Iranian Gorbachev is needed, but I think yoiu may be indulging in a bit of wishful thinking. From your previous reply:

Rafsanjani could get the council to remove Khameni and then institute a new clerical leader that is more in line with Rafsanjani's beliefs and allow more democracy within Iran

The power elites, among whose number Rafsanjani is numbered, are not all that keen on letting loose of power. There are a lot of clerics who are also tied into money, finance, and business, sons of wealty families who went cleric ... perhaps for political reasons?

Looks like Italy, 1500's, and the Medici popes.:P

One last thought: the amount of info that has make itself available is rather small, which frustrates me. However, that is how the govening powers want it.

Occhi

[Lissa]

I'd say an Iranian Gorbachev is needed, but I think yoiu may be indulging in a bit of wishful thinking. From your previous reply:

Nope, I mean Yeltsin, someone that can break the military's hold which is what Khameni/Ahmadaljin is doing. The Clerics are losing power to the military and they're not liking it.

The power elites, among whose number Rafsanjani is numbered, are not all that keen on letting loose of power. There are a lot of clerics who are also tied into money, finance, and business, sons of wealty families who went cleric ... perhaps for political reasons?

No, as I noted above, the Clerics are losing power to the Military (with Khameni using the Military to further his aims vs. that of the Clerics) and they're not happy, unless they're in Khameni's pocket (like the one Cleric talking about executing some of the protesters). This election has been a power play by the Clerics, led by Rafsanjani, to get power back to the Clerics.

Looks like Italy, 1500's, and the Medici popes.:P

One last thought: the amount of info that has make itself available is rather small, which frustrates me. However, that is how the govening powers want it.

Occhi

Nah, I would say this is good old fashion dictatorship, divide and kill your opposition.

[Ashock]

Nope, I mean Yeltsin, someone that can break the military's hold which is what Khameni/Ahmadaljin is doing.

Yeltsin was an idiot who should have been running a farm. A poor choice for a leader of any country.

[Jester]

Yeltsin was an idiot who should have been running a farm. A poor choice for a leader of any country.

If he should have been running a farm, he'd have been a step up from most of the Soviet leaders. I wouldn't have trusted Yeltsin (or Khrushchev, or Brezhnev) to run a hot dog stand.

-Jester

[--Pete]

Hi,

If he should have been running a farm, he'd have been a step up from most of the Soviet leaders. I wouldn't have trusted Yeltsin (or Krushchev, or Brezhnev) to run a hot dog stand.

Yes, and I sure wouldn't have trusted the contents of a Khrushchev hot dog. He got his recipe from Uncle Joe. :w00t:

--Pete

[kandrathe]

Yes, that was a signal well sent.

The smack down is happening, and Montezeri is probably heading back to Qum, his dreams once again frustrated.

I'd say an Iranian Gorbachev is needed, but I think yoiu may be indulging in a bit of wishful thinking. From your previous reply:

The power elites, among whose number Rafsanjani is numbered, are not all that keen on letting loose of power. There are a lot of clerics who are also tied into money, finance, and business, sons of wealty families who went cleric ... perhaps for political reasons?

Looks like Italy, 1500's, and the Medici popes.:P

One last thought: the amount of info that has make itself available is rather small, which frustrates me. However, that is how the govening powers want it.

Occhi

I'm reading Arab sources such as Asharq Alawsat or Al Jazeera (not helpful lately). Here is some good news.


I think some US former officials should get a scolding. In the midst of a bloody uprising you don't just come out and say, "Of course we have spies on the ground in Iran." You know that is going to be headlines in Iran the next day, and result in more murders and tortures. Brent should know that the standard answer to those types of questions is, "I don't know."

[Lissa]

Yeltsin was an idiot who should have been running a farm. A poor choice for a leader of any country.

Idiot or not, he had the ability to tear down the establishment which is what needs to happen in Iran.

[Jester]

Yes, and I sure wouldn't have trusted the contents of a Khrushchev hot dog. He got his recipe from Uncle Joe.

At least you know what's in it, which is more than I can say for most hot dogs.

-Jester