Best Article on Iran Election Process I've seen

[Occhidiangela]

And yet more power going to the IRGC as they continue to tight their grip. Iran's going from Theocratic Dictatorship to Militaristic Dictatorship.

Hmmm, wasn't that what the Shah has been accused of by apologists for the 79 revolution and its reactionary move away from modernity?

Yet again, politics demonstrates the insightful line from Pete Townsend's pen: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss."

On the other hand, perhaps the hard liners have a strong populist appeal.

"They may be arseholes, but they are our arseholes."

Fine. Saddam got about thirty years out of such an attitude. Others have lasted longer, Castro coming rather quickly to mind. Worked for Marion Barry as well.

Occhi

[Lissa]

It's also part of the issue now. The international community believes that we can control Israel now.

Talks this weekend between Gates (SecDef) and Ehud Barak (IDM) show that we have no definite control over Israel with Barak stating several times that no options were off the table concerning Iran. If the international community wants to believe that the US can pull Israel's strings with ease, they need a serious wake up call.

And yes, Israel is moving ships and subs through the Suez as we speak along with continuing long range aircraft drills.

[Kevin]

Talks this weekend between Gates (SecDef) and Ehud Barak (IDM) show that we have no definite control over Israel with Barak stating several times that no options were off the table concerning Iran. If the international community wants to believe that the US can pull Israel's strings with ease, they need a serious wake up call.

And yes, Israel is moving ships and subs through the Suez as we speak along with continuing long range aircraft drills.

I don't disagree. But of course I should have stated that the foreign press seems to like to claim that we have the ability to control them, it wasn't just the article that Zenda posted, I've seen others that make similar claims, including a few articles from the BBC.

I don't believe we can, I never did. I also would not be surprised to see them attack sites in Iran with conventional weapons. I would still be very surprised if they used a nuke.

[eppie]

I don't disagree. But of course I should have stated that the foreign press seems to like to claim that we have the ability to control them, it wasn't just the article that Zenda posted, I've seen others that make similar claims, including a few articles from the BBC.

I don't believe we can, I never did. I also would not be surprised to see them attack sites in Iran with conventional weapons. I would still be very surprised if they used a nuke.

I'm not sure if foreign press 'seems to like to claim that we have the ability to control them'. The idea we always had is that Israel uses its strategic position to control the US. No matter what war crimes they commited or what resolution the broke they could always count on the support of the US (and UK and Netherlands, plus many other western nations).
However, I read somewhere (sorry don't remember anymore where) that after a series of events (ao bombing in lebanon) the unquestioned support of Israel by the US is getting smaller.

Apart from the events that might happen if Israel attacks Iran (zenda's link) I think US/Israel relations will suffer greatly, so I am not sure if Israel wants to risk this.

[kandrathe]

However, I read somewhere (sorry don't remember anymore where) that after a series of events (ao bombing in lebanon) the unquestioned support of Israel by the US is getting smaller.

Supporting Israel is big business, and a key part of some powerful war hawks in the world to keep tensions high enough to continue selling them and their enemies the latest high tech weapon systems. I think their plan is to keep the pot on simmer, without letting it boil over. Some one has a leash on Israel to the tune of about ~3 billion or so dollars in aid sent over there every year. However, we, the people, don't have much to say or do with where or how that aid is spent.

In the US, it is nigh political suicide to be against a free flow of funds to Israel, both from greed of the entrenched oligarchy and the polity of US Jewish lobbies. My prediction is that Obama will do abysmally with this topic, since the Israeli's have already pegged him as not their friend which is probably due to the fact that Obama's past is checkered with friends and supporters who are openly hostile. There is hope in the Arab street because of Obama, but I fear it is a false hope.

The powerful manipulators in this world use the Israel/Arab conflict to create a white/black dichotomy where mostly the Arab is portrayed as the jihadist fanatic, while the Israeli's are portrayed as peace loving innocents. We, the duped, in the US look at the bombings in Tel Aviv, and are determined not to allow that to happen in Detroit, or New York. So, we build more weapons, and feel righteous is sending them over to help protect the innocents.

Meanwhile, the streets run red with the blood from both sides. The real cruelty here is that I don't believe that the people running this thing give a crap about the loss of life on either side.

Apart from the events that might happen if Israel attacks Iran (zenda's link) I think US/Israel relations will suffer greatly, so I am not sure if Israel wants to risk this.

I think it was Occhi who said that Israel's nukes are a last strike weapon, which I agree with. Israel has so many conventional options which would be just as effective against any other of her enemies in the region. With Iraq neutered militarily, only Iran and wahabi extremists remain as a threat in suppling funds, training, and arms to Israel's enemies. If you look at the map, Iran is surrounded by countries that are either occupied or some what cooperative with US interests (Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan)

[Lissa]

And the latest news is that the abuses by the IRGC and Basiji is coming out and be known. Now there are listings of various attrocities being committed that are coming to light along with a better picture of the total death toll is coming out (no longer the 20 some odd people, but now hundreds to potentially a few thousand). Even hard line clerics are up in arms over what the IRGC and Basiji have been up to. We could potentially see some loss of power to the IRGC and potentially some backing away on Ahmadjindad from Khatami and other hard liners. The reformers may get their way after all considering how badly the IRGC and Basiji have reacted.

Expect something big to happen over the next few weeks as more and more of the attrocities commited by the IRGC and Basiji come to light.

[Lissa]

And today the police broke up groups performing the 40 day mourning ritual that is normal to Islam. Even though the it sounds like the people involved were being fairly peaceful (only routiness heard was people shouting "death to the dictator"). This may even make Khameni feel a little heat as a Cleric with the police stopping a normal religious function (mourning of the dead on the 40th day).

Iran is simmering right now, but the heat is starting to turn up and we may see it boil over.