The land of the flighty

[Doc]

I would like to see more black leaders like MLK and X who energize, and promote equality, success, freedom and opportunity rather than those like Jesse and Al (and their ilk) who seem to only wallow in black victimization and solutions being limited to government subsidy.

Ah, for some reason, it made me feel very happy and warm inside to hear you say that.

Thanks, you made my night.

[LochnarITB]

And truth to be told, the US government is more worried about the items that are required to precisely fire the shaped charges than the actual weapons grade material.

That's not hard. I could make a device with photo strobes, a metal salad bowl and green dishwashing liquid!

"Name that movie!" "I came name that movie in three frames, Alex!"



You may now return to the hijacked thread...

[Lissa]

That's not hard. I could make a device with photo strobes, a metal salad bowl and green dishwashing liquid!

"Name that movie!" "I came name that movie in three frames, Alex!"
You may now return to the hijacked thread...

Real Genius

[--Pete]

Hi,

That's not hard. I could make a device with photo strobes, a metal salad bowl and green dishwashing liquid!

You probably could. The advances in electronics and explosives since the days of the Manhattan Project are such that consumer grade materials now are better than the best they had to work with then. But, really, a gun type bomb (like the original uranium bomb) is very low tech. You're not going to fit a bunch of them on an ICBM MIRV bus, but a fifty foot private boat could carry one with no problem at all. As a matter of fact, the original was delivered by B29 (IIRC) that only needed to be slightly modified.

As to determining whether the test occurred at all and was successful, that's not so easy. Underground testing was developed precisely so that a minimum of radiation would be released to the outside, so that the heat and blast signature would be contained, and (when done right) so that seismographic monitoring of the shock waves would give a misleading indication of the yield. The idea then was not to let your enemies (at that time, the USSR and the USA, depending on where you sat) know that you'd conducted a test, much less how it worked out. So, either the Koreans pulled off a successful test using good underground test techniques, or they pulled off an unsuccessful test (and the techniques don't matter). And most of us will never know which.

--Pete

[Doc]

Based on NK nuclear history, heavy waste water reactors, and materials available in their country, it looks as though they blew off a plutonium bomb, not a uranium bomb. And while it fizzled a bit, US and several countries have confirmed radiation reports.

I have only a bare understanding of nukes, but plutonium bombs from my understanding have less boom but are a very dirty weapon. The bomb was .5 kilotons (estimated) Yongbyon has been working with plutonium for quite some time. The leaked (shared) info with Pakistan was for a plutonium based bomb. So there seems to be quite some bit of evidence about the bomb's nature.

Russia was the first to confirm because they are intimately familiar with the bomb's signature, they gave NK everything they needed to start their nuke program back during the cold war, including manufacturing info. The US, using information from Russia, was able to confirm the blast as well, and later detected radiation.

And there seems to be some info that NK is getting ready to conduct a second test, this time even closer to China's border.

[LochnarITB]

Real Genius

Bzzzzztt! Wrong!

What is the correct answer, Pete?

Oh, you already gave it. We have a winner.

Huh, what do you mean you didn't answer? Well you gave the answer anyway. That's correct, "The Manhattan Project".

And what do you win? This lovely virtual pseudophizbit! Isn't it lovely? I'm sure you and the missus will be happy with that.

Well, that's all for today folks. Have a good day and a great journey. This has been Waste Your Time with Lochnar of Azeroth. Next up, we look at the history of the White Castle Slider and speculate about the date they will have to start using that second pound of hamburger they have stored away at the factory.

[Lissa]

Hi,
You probably could. The advances in electronics and explosives since the days of the Manhattan Project are such that consumer grade materials now are better than the best they had to work with then. But, really, a gun type bomb (like the original uranium bomb) is very low tech. You're not going to fit a bunch of them on an ICBM MIRV bus, but a fifty foot private boat could carry one with no problem at all. As a matter of fact, the original was delivered by B29 (IIRC) that only needed to be slightly modified.

As to determining whether the test occurred at all and was successful, that's not so easy. Underground testing was developed precisely so that a minimum of radiation would be released to the outside, so that the heat and blast signature would be contained, and (when done right) so that seismographic monitoring of the shock waves would give a misleading indication of the yield. The idea then was not to let your enemies (at that time, the USSR and the USA, depending on where you sat) know that you'd conducted a test, much less how it worked out. So, either the Koreans pulled off a successful test using good underground test techniques, or they pulled off an unsuccessful test (and the techniques don't matter). And most of us will never know which.

--Pete

I'm betting it was a fizzle. As I noted above, getting the weapons grade material isn't too difficult if you have a pile and enough neutron flux to convert U238 to Pu239. The technology to make the detonators all detonate properly and at the same millisecond is the real crux on making a compressive bomb work. I'm not sure NK has the technology to actually make those.

[Occhidiangela]

The technology to make the detonators all detonate properly and at the same millisecond is the real crux on making a compressive bomb work. I'm not sure NK has the technology to actually make those.

I try not to underestimate the enemies of my nation, which includes the NK's. Why do you think that they were unable to procure the electronic tools and circuit design necessary to synchronize the detonations?

Occhi

[Doc]

Another reason for the plutonium bomb. Much easier to blow off. No bullet design needed or complex parts.

All you need is an initiator, some kind of neutron source. A plutonium 239 fissile core. A tamper core reflector made from high grade beryllium, some lenses, a shaped plastic charge, and a working detonator.

Pretty much everything you need can be found in any civil nuclear reactor, a hardware store, and an electronics supply outlet. (And the grocery store) A crude plutonium bomb can be constructed by pretty much anybody with a high school reading level and the ability to follow simple directions and read a blue print. A basic knowledge of electronics is helpful but not required. Basic metalurgy is helpful, but not required.

I personally do not understand the scientific process of how it works, but I am betting that given the materials, I could probably make one. I don't understand how a microwave works, but I know enough to push buttons to have it make my food.

Such a device would be a "dirty bomb." Not a whole lot of bang, but the radiation produced would be fantastic. It is exceptionally crude but infinately doable. The hardest part would be getting the materials, the rest, not so hard. You only need 10 to 15 kg of plutonium to achieve critical mass followed by self sustaining fission reaction. Creating a reflective shell of beryllium to reflect neutrons back in to the fission process would be difficult, but shouldn't be to hard. Heck, I think about 5kg of plutonium would produce a 20 kiloton explosion but that appears to be in perfect laboratory conditions with perfect manufacturing and hardware. You'd need a larger chunk with such crude methods.

Such a bomb would be a terrible thing. Ground zero of said device would remain radioactive longer than I can figure, so I wont even venture a guess. Human beings would not be able to live there for a very long time. Damage to the atmosphere... I have no clue, but it would be bad. Very bad. Such a dirty weapon would have profound effects for generations to come. Makes you glad they blew it off underground.

I am not sure how much actual physical damage it would do. That, I do not know. But the long term environmental effects of such a weapon I believe are far worse than the actual explosion.

Scary stuff.

[Rhydderch Hael]

Lenses? As in glass optic lenses? Or are we talking explosive lenses?

Timing a spherical implosion is easy. Manipulating the shockwaves of that implosion into something funky— that's hard.

[Doc]

Explosive lenses I believe. I don't have the book in front of me at the moment, and I was going by memory, hence the slightly scattered thoughts in the post. Sorry, going by a book I read decades ago, my memories on the issue are ever so slightly sketchy. I may have even got the plutonium numbers wrong, and if I did, I am sure many people here will jump at the chance to correct me. Let them.

Infact, I am almost sure some of my numbers are wrong. Nothing is exact. Very rough figures that I had to coax from the spiderwebby depths of my mind. But I am confident that it is close enough to give you a general idea of the relative simplicity involved.

In fact, I dare say it would be even easier now than it was back then, with the internet and all. You could likely get exact instructions somewhere and anybody with a handful of good working brain cells could figure it out.

Did I mention the right numbers with the plutonium? I'd actually like to know if I did. Memory is getting slightly fuzzier as I get older.

[--Pete]

Hi,

The technology to make the detonators all detonate properly and at the same millisecond is the real crux on making a compressive bomb work. I'm not sure NK has the technology to actually make those.

That's 1940's thinking. Millisecond????? That's forever. That's practically DC. Thirty years ago, when I did the experiments for my dissertation, the total amount of data I obtained was nine shots, with four to eight channels each taken over about 50 nanoseconds. That was multiple channels of data, synchronized to within 2 nanosecond for all channels. And it was all done with commercial, analog, off the shelf, unclassified components. Modern electronics, especially digital, are much faster and have less jitter.

NK could pretty much get everything they need for the fuzing (except the fuzes) at a rat-shack and photo shop. The fuzes they could get from any explosives supplier (commercial standard fuzes, used in building demolition). And commercially available explosives, such as DuPont's detasheet, are uniform enough in their C/J point shock velocity that you can get the necessary spherical wave.

As for the technical knowledge, most of it is readily available. At one time, the ability to do the design calculations was a limiting factor, but modern personal computers are more than sufficient for the task, and almost all the pertinent algorithms have been published from John Von Neumann's artificial viscosity to keep the intrinsic and extrinsic matrices in sync to the full ionization values for almost all materials. Just go to any good university library and search physics abstracts, especially The Journal of Applied Physics.

I don't know where you got the notion that there's any real limitation on building nuclear weapons other than obtaining the fissionable material, but I don't think that that notion is right.

--Pete

[Drasca]

Just go to any good university library and search physics abstracts, especially [i]The Journal of Applied Physics

That reminds me, the new "Outer Limits" did an episode about this very subject. The premise was that the knowledge, materials and technology was readily accessible for any graduate student challenged enough to try and pull it off, and the story's catalyst was an standard exam asking students to prove Cold Fusion to be impossible. A grad kid pulled it off, and the story revolved around him, and ended with another like him repeating his process.

Fun little Science Fiction television story, but the once predicted science is here. Now. Ok, a lone grad student usually won't (too starving) but sometimes I wonder

I don't know where you got the notion that there's any real limitation on building nuclear weapons other than obtaining the fissionable material, but I don't think that that notion is right.

I feel like the the world of tomorrow is today. Can we? Can't we.

[Lissa]

Hi,
That's 1940's thinking. Millisecond????? That's forever. That's practically DC. Thirty years ago, when I did the experiments for my dissertation, the total amount of data I obtained was nine shots, with four to eight channels each taken over about 50 nanoseconds. That was multiple channels of data, synchronized to within 2 nanosecond for all channels. And it was all done with commercial, analog, off the shelf, unclassified components. Modern electronics, especially digital, are much faster and have less jitter.

NK could pretty much get everything they need for the fuzing (except the fuzes) at a rat-shack and photo shop. The fuzes they could get from any explosives supplier (commercial standard fuzes, used in building demolition). And commercially available explosives, such as DuPont's detasheet, are uniform enough in their C/J point shock velocity that you can get the necessary spherical wave.

As for the technical knowledge, most of it is readily available. At one time, the ability to do the design calculations was a limiting factor, but modern personal computers are more than sufficient for the task, and almost all the pertinent algorithms have been published from John Von Neumann's artificial viscosity to keep the intrinsic and extrinsic matrices in sync to the full ionization values for almost all materials. Just go to any good university library and search physics abstracts, especially The Journal of Applied Physics.

I don't know where you got the notion that there's any real limitation on building nuclear weapons other than obtaining the fissionable material, but I don't think that that notion is right.

--Pete

And you listed what the US government watches for. Those items are a lot more difficult to make than people realize. They have to be very precise and all go off nearly simultaneously or you get a fizzle. You need near perfect compression of the pit to the proper critical density to get a chain that will continue long enough to make a strong explosion.

Something of note, Littleboy had a lot more potential explosive power than it actually released because of using the gun type weapon system (and appearent thought now is that NK's test was a Littleboy style weapon). Gun type weapon systems are inherently fizzle weapons. IIRC, Littleboy's main core piece, the one that the additional piece was fire into, was 80% of a critical mass in it's own right (the other piece was somewhere on the odds of 40%). The mass disassociated well before the maximum energy release was achieved (I can't remember the exact percentage). Still that's nothing to sneeze at, but that does mean that putting something like this on a missile and getting to the US is not very feasible, but it does pose a great deal of issues for SK, Japan, China, and Russia.

[Lissa]

I try not to underestimate the enemies of my nation, which includes the NK's. Why do you think that they were unable to procure the electronic tools and circuit design necessary to synchronize the detonations?

Occhi

The fuzes required are a lot more difficult to make. Likewise, the fuzes themselves are watched very closely by the US government because they know how they can be used. Those type of fuzes only have two uses, building demolitions and bombs (be they convention or non). While the NKs could threaten their neighbors, lobbing a nuke at the US with a missile is a lot more unlikely considering that they probably cannot get the minaturization necessary to do so. If they want to hit the US, it's going to have to be by ship and they're going to have to take a lot of subterfuge to hide that they are the ones doing it.

[Doc]

The fuzes required are a lot more difficult to make. Likewise, the fuzes themselves are watched very closely by the US government because they know how they can be used. Those type of fuzes only have two uses, building demolitions and bombs (be they convention or non). While the NKs could threaten their neighbors, lobbing a nuke at the US with a missile is a lot more unlikely considering that they probably cannot get the minaturization necessary to do so. If they want to hit the US, it's going to have to be by ship and they're going to have to take a lot of subterfuge to hide that they are the ones doing it.

Um, no. I do not think so. All it would take for NK to drop a bomb in our laps is to stick it on to a cargo crate. Ship several. Odds are that one or two would make it, maybe all, since nobody can search through every single cargo crate, because every day a million or two new crates arrive from South East Asia.

Remote detonate. Maybe in LA's harbour or Seattle.

No offense, but you are thinking in the box, while they are actually thinking in the box. Conventional warfare does not apply here. As I seem to recall, Kim has a doctorate in civil engineering, he knows a great deal about infrastructure and how to bring it down.

The other scenario is also nightmarish, and entirely possible. Strike the Chinese. By hitting them, Kim could bring the US, and a big part of the world's economy, to its knees. Our manufacturing base is in China. All those goods in our stores, in Mao-Mart, most of the cars made by Ford and Chevy, all made in China. Along with most of our textiles and dry goods. China knows this as well, and realise he is fully capable of this kind of action, and they are even voicing concern that it may be time for a change in leadership in NK.

And I honestly mean no offense. Lissa, you have a good mind with strong logic and critical thinking. But you don't think "crazy." Please don't take that the wrong way. :D

[Occhidiangela]

The fuzes required are a lot more difficult to make. Likewise, the fuzes themselves are watched very closely by the US government because they know how they can be used. Those type of fuzes only have two uses, building demolitions and bombs (be they convention or non). While the NKs could threaten their neighbors, lobbing a nuke at the US with a missile is a lot more unlikely considering that they probably cannot get the minaturization necessary to do so. If they want to hit the US, it's going to have to be by ship and they're going to have to take a lot of subterfuge to hide that they are the ones doing it.

May I point out that illegal tech transfer has been going on for some decades, as well as "turn a blind eye" tech transfer? There are other governments and actors than the US government, some of whom don't give a flying hoot about American security.

I tend to believe that the NK's, with sufficient effort, would do the research and produce the materials on their own. As Pete points out, you are looking at 60's and 70's tech. One man's rubbish is another's treasure.

As to them weaponizing a missile with MIRV's or a nuclear tip, the US and Russians were doing that in the 1960's. This is 40 year old tech. I concur with you that the NK's have their work cut out for them, given the mess their economy and industrial sector is in, but they are not quadraplegic, economically speaking. I am also confident that their autonomous ability to produce the NoDong and TaePoDong missiles speaks rather well of their industrial plant.

Occhi

[Ashock]

I am also confident that their autonomous ability to produce the NoDong and TaePoDong missiles speaks rather well of their industrial plant.

Occhi

What??? Those plants produce Baby Formula.

-A

[Lissa]

Um, no. I do not think so. All it would take for NK to drop a bomb in our laps is to stick it on to a cargo crate. Ship several. Odds are that one or two would make it, maybe all, since nobody can search through every single cargo crate, because every day a million or two new crates arrive from South East Asia.

Remote detonate. Maybe in LA's harbour or Seattle.

No offense, but you are thinking in the box, while they are actually thinking in the box. Conventional warfare does not apply here. As I seem to recall, Kim has a doctorate in civil engineering, he knows a great deal about infrastructure and how to bring it down.

The other scenario is also nightmarish, and entirely possible. Strike the Chinese. By hitting them, Kim could bring the US, and a big part of the world's economy, to its knees. Our manufacturing base is in China. All those goods in our stores, in Mao-Mart, most of the cars made by Ford and Chevy, all made in China. Along with most of our textiles and dry goods. China knows this as well, and realise he is fully capable of this kind of action, and they are even voicing concern that it may be time for a change in leadership in NK.

And I honestly mean no offense. Lissa, you have a good mind with strong logic and critical thinking. But you don't think "crazy." Please don't take that the wrong way. :D

Doc, read the last line in my post, I stated this exact thing. Missile, no way in hell, using subterfuge on ship, possibly.

[Lissa]

May I point out that illegal tech transfer has been going on for some decades, as well as "turn a blind eye" tech transfer? There are other governments and actors than the US government, some of whom don't give a flying hoot about American security.

I tend to believe that the NK's, with sufficient effort, would do the research and produce the materials on their own. As Pete points out, you are looking at 60's and 70's tech. One man's rubbish is another's treasure.

As to them weaponizing a missile with MIRV's or a nuclear tip, the US and Russians were doing that in the 1960's. This is 40 year old tech. I concur with you that the NK's have their work cut out for them, given the mess their economy and industrial sector is in, but they are not quadraplegic, economically speaking. I am also confident that their autonomous ability to produce the NoDong and TaePoDong missiles speaks rather well of their industrial plant.

Occhi

As I said, the key problem they face is miniturization along with the crighton switches. Likewise, they look like they're using Manahattan era (pre-Hbomb) tech for the weapons as most believe the test on the 9th was a Littleboy style bomb (gun type). Overall, they're looking at pretty low yield weapons (if the 9th's test was a fizzle, they're having problems with the gun type working properly as well) for a lot of weight.

While the TaePoDong (IIRC, that's their newest design) can potentially reach the US, with a gun style warhead, they'd be lucky to get it to fly to the tip of the Aluetians (although that is more than enough range to hit anywhere in SK, Japan, Peking if they're really peekish, and some of the cities in Siberia). The real crux here is whether NK can figure out how to get a weapon to chain properly using a pit as an initiator for a multistage bomb like the big boys™ use (typically a Fission - Fission - Fusion - Fission - Fusion chain).