02-25-2004, 03:04 PM
That's the "beauty" of statistics and "randomness." In general, given such odds, you won't get past your third enemy. However, that doesn't mean you will not. You could in theory kill hundreds of the enemy before your scout gets killed. It's highly unlikely, but...
That's why I have a hard time believing people who swear they're 100% sure the drops worsen after 10, 50, 100 drops. Not that I don't believe they are seeing a reduction in quality; rather, I think they're just seeing a "bad run." That couples with the fact that there's more to having a "good" item drop than simply seeing gold or green letters.
Consider running hell baal twice with the following results:
1st run: baal drops 6 uniques -- face of horror, duskdeep, the chieftan, leadcrow, soul harvest and gleamscythe.
2nd run: baal drops 5 normal blue items and IK armor.
Given the rarity of the items (and the cost if you like to trade), the first run probably results in a grunt of disgust while the second results in a *whoop!* of victory. According to the game, the first run was far superior *in terms of the unique quality of each item.* According to just about anyone I know, if hell baal dropped six normal uniques, you had a terrrible run.
That example is obviously contrived and a bit extreme, but it shows how the perception of "quality" can greatly affect how good we think our luck is when hunting for items. This type of perception, coupled with a "good" or "bad" run that statistics tells us is quite normal, is what fosters the rumours surrounding MF.
gekko
That's why I have a hard time believing people who swear they're 100% sure the drops worsen after 10, 50, 100 drops. Not that I don't believe they are seeing a reduction in quality; rather, I think they're just seeing a "bad run." That couples with the fact that there's more to having a "good" item drop than simply seeing gold or green letters.
Consider running hell baal twice with the following results:
1st run: baal drops 6 uniques -- face of horror, duskdeep, the chieftan, leadcrow, soul harvest and gleamscythe.
2nd run: baal drops 5 normal blue items and IK armor.
Given the rarity of the items (and the cost if you like to trade), the first run probably results in a grunt of disgust while the second results in a *whoop!* of victory. According to the game, the first run was far superior *in terms of the unique quality of each item.* According to just about anyone I know, if hell baal dropped six normal uniques, you had a terrrible run.
That example is obviously contrived and a bit extreme, but it shows how the perception of "quality" can greatly affect how good we think our luck is when hunting for items. This type of perception, coupled with a "good" or "bad" run that statistics tells us is quite normal, is what fosters the rumours surrounding MF.
gekko
"Life is sacred and you are not its steward. You have stewardship over it but you don't own it. You're making a choice to go through this, it's not just happening to you. You're inviting it, and in some ways delighting in it. It's not accidental or coincidental. You're choosing it. You have to realize you've made choices."
-Michael Ventura, "Letters@3AM"
-Michael Ventura, "Letters@3AM"