The land of the flighty

[Occhidiangela]

As I said, the key problem they face is miniturization along with the crighton switches. Likewise, they look like they're using Manahattan era (pre-Hbomb) tech for the weapons as most believe the test on the 9th was a Littleboy style bomb (gun type). Overall, they're looking at pretty low yield weapons (if the 9th's test was a fizzle, they're having problems with the gun type working properly as well) for a lot of weight.

While the TaePoDong (IIRC, that's their newest design) can potentially reach the US, with a gun style warhead, they'd be lucky to get it to fly to the tip of the Aluetians (although that is more than enough range to hit anywhere in SK, Japan, Peking if they're really peekish, and some of the cities in Siberia). The real crux here is whether NK can figure out how to get a weapon to chain properly using a pit as an initiator for a multistage bomb like the big boys™ use (typically a Fission - Fission - Fusion - Fission - Fusion chain).

Indeed, the question has always been that: how far have they gotten, really, and how much did Dr Khan provide them to speed up their progress and reserarch?

Occhi

[Lissa]

Indeed, the question has always been that: how far have they gotten, really, and how much did Dr Khan provide them to speed up their progress and reserarch?

Occhi

I'm not sure Dr. Khan provided them anything since they (NK) are not Muslim. If you note, all the countries that have claimed research knowledge from Dr. Khan have all been Muslim majority (Iran, Libya, probably a couple others), but no non-Muslim countries have made such claims.

[Assur]

I'm not sure Dr. Khan provided them anything since they (NK) are not Muslim. If you note, all the countries that have claimed research knowledge from Dr. Khan have all been Muslim majority (Iran, Libya, probably a couple others), but no non-Muslim countries have made such claims.

AFAIK NK traded knowledge about rockets for some of the nuclear stuff from Khan/Pakistan, but they are never going to admit because the nuke is the work of the evervictorious people under the guidance of Kom Jong Il:w00t:

[Occhidiangela]

I'm not sure Dr. Khan provided them anything since they (NK) are not Muslim. If you note, all the countries that have claimed research knowledge from Dr. Khan have all been Muslim majority (Iran, Libya, probably a couple others), but no non-Muslim countries have made such claims.

The latest Newsweek piece, and about 20 others in the past year, have all pointed to DR Khan working with the NK's. According to Newsweek (consider the source, grain of salt) 14 different nations (or persons from 14 different nations) were involved in assisting the NK's in variouis ways.

Not sure why you'd put the Muslim blinders on.

Occhi

[eppie]

Um, no. I do not think so. All it would take for NK to drop a bomb in our laps is to stick it on to a cargo crate. Ship several. Odds are that one or two would make it, maybe all, since nobody can search through every single cargo crate, because every day a million or two new crates arrive from South East Asia.

Remote detonate. Maybe in LA's harbour or Seattle.

Maybe I missed this but can anybody tell me why in earths name Kim would like to attack somebody with a nuke? And about the other often heard story, why would he want to sell a nuke to somebody? He would be better of putting his money on a bank account if he wanted some profit.

[Occhidiangela]

Maybe I missed this but can anybody tell me why in earths name Kim would like to attack somebody with a nuke? And about the other often heard story, why would he want to sell a nuke to somebody? He would be better of putting his money on a bank account if he wanted some profit.

eppie.

Dont' measure another man's wheat by your bushel. Where he sits colors what he sees.

An interesting peek into the world of the NK is here from Robert Kaplan, one of the more perceptive writers on contemporary affairs.

Occhi

[kandrathe]

Maybe I missed this but can anybody tell me why in earths name Kim would like to attack somebody with a nuke? And about the other often heard story, why would he want to sell a nuke to somebody? He would be better of putting his money on a bank account if he wanted some profit.

eppie, do you play chess? If you do, of understand how the masters play it, then you might begin the grasp the complexity. The US used nukes, why wouldn't DNK? Maybe against the hated Japanese, maybe against the mass of Chinese troops ready to occupy the peninsula, maybe against the USA as further extortion. They would use them (as a threat or actual use) to preserve their control on power as a means of trying to force the world to deal with them. So far it's worked, the threat of violence (which we call extortion) has kept the bankrupt regime bathed in food and fuel oil aid.

So why would they trade nuclear materials and technology to rich Islamofacists? To prevent the collapse of their regime when their population enters a civil war due to freezing and starving to death.

[Assur]

Well, if they use nukes for a first strike or sell them to islamists who use them they will become a legitimate target for an alllout assault, including US nukes. Hopefully the leadership in NK kows this.:ph34r:

More likely is that they will use the threat of further tests and/or proliferation to strenghten their bargaining position.

What would the US beprepared to offer China in return for solving North Korea? Withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula? Cutting ties with Taiwan?

[Swiss Mercenary]

So why would they trade nuclear materials and technology to rich Islamofacists? To prevent the collapse of their regime when their population enters a civil war due to freezing and starving to death.

I think the point to consider is that they've probably spent more resources on working out the technology, then they would make from selling it. Doesn't mean the potential to make a quick buck isn't there right now, but there's logistics issues to consider with, well, transporting their bombs.

As for them using nukes, its a suicide move. Could it happen if they were desperate? Possibly. However, if they were desperate, they can, as of right now, conduct poison gas shelling of South Korean civilian centers. They've already got chemical WMDs, deliverable courtesy of their long-range artillery (Which I'd imagine has a better success rate at doing what it should then their missles do)

My opinion? Stop all foreign aid, as well as negotiations, starting right now. Appeasement is obviously counter-productive when dealing with a liar like Kim, while an invasion is stupid for various reasons, not the least of which being 'With what?'

If he makes an offensive move, better he make it now then 5 or 10 years down the road. He'll probably come back to the debate table, crying - and if he won't, its doubtful his regime will last for long.

What would the US offer China for solving NK?

I'm in fair agreement with Occhi's link that China might well be satisfied in having a (major) hand in determening what'll be done with NK.

Question to Occhi - are you, personally overly concerned by China expanding its influence in that way? If so, doesn't that imply that the US has an interest in retaining the current state of affairs (Heavy military presence in SK, with the boogeyman just next door)? How do you measure that with your threat to 'American security' that a nuclear NK poses?

[Occhidiangela]

Question to Occhi - are you, personally overly concerned by China expanding its influence in that way? If so, doesn't that imply that the US has an interest in retaining the current state of affairs (Heavy military presence in SK, with the boogeyman just next door)? How do you measure that with your threat to 'American security' that a nuclear NK poses?

I don't think there is any stopping Chinese increased influence in the region, but the nature of it can be influenced. The Chinese are in a growth spurt, economically and militarily. The only benefit to the US of this spurt is the unease of China's neighbors with this growing influence, which some of them fear will lead to dominance and an unhealthy hegemony. Continually strengthening economic and political ties to all of China's rivals, from Russia, to India to Viet Nam to Japan to South (and perhaps some day a unified) Korea is the best hope for either counter influence, or a form of containment. That the US has been selling out econmically to China since about 1988 has been a strike against US policy, and a major achievement of China's ruling class.

NK will only be "resolved" via China, one of the few nations with any real leverage over them. It is a delicate dance for sure. To a certain extent, China is in the driver's seat. As important for the US is to strongly counter influence in South America, which at present I don't think BushCo is doing very well.

Occhi

[eppie]

eppie.

Dont' measure another man's wheat by your bushel. Where he sits colors what he sees.

I might return this one to you. Juts because you are from a country that can and will invade other countries does not mean everybody wants to do this.
Selling (which will become known) or using it hinself will be the end of north korea, and for sure for Kim, the only thing I can think of is some kind of suicide last act of him....but I'm sure they wil prevent him from doing that.
As a threat, yes of course, and he is right to do so. Although I am against Nukes and against a new weapons race, it was the most logical thing he could do to protect his country. In the last 5 years the US has shown to have absolutely no problem with invading a country. NK was next.....

[Occhidiangela]

I might return this one to you. Juts because you are from a country that can and will invade other countries does not mean everybody wants to do this.

Nice strawman, eppie. What has that got to do with the price of piss in Pyongyang?

NK was "next?" In your fantasies. You, like most other fools who hold to that delusion, conveniently ignore the South Korean government's position on this, regardless of the bluff and bluster coming out of Washington.

Occhi

[kandrathe]

I might return this one to you. Juts because you are from a country that can and will invade other countries does not mean everybody wants to do this.
Selling (which will become known) or using it hinself will be the end of north korea, and for sure for Kim, the only thing I can think of is some kind of suicide last act of him....but I'm sure they wil prevent him from doing that. As a threat, yes of course, and he is right to do so.

No. Think about extortion. "If you don't supply me with free fuel oil and free food, I'll develop an arsenal of WMD." "If you don't capitulate to my demands I will send 1 million refugees into South Korea and destabilize their economy." "If you don't withdraw all your forces from South Korea I will ..."

Although I am against Nukes and against a new weapons race, it was the most logical thing he could do to protect his country. In the last 5 years the US has shown to have absolutely no problem with invading a country. NK was next.....

What is it with you and despots? The only thing Kim is protecting is his daddy's legacy and his supply of cognac, caviar, and playboy lifestyle while the majority of North Koreans huddle shivering in famine and squalor. You might not like the US military, but from what I can tell it's what's keeping 50 million South Koreans free of Kim Jong Il's tyranny.

GDP/Capita --
United States - $41,800
Netherlands - $30,500
South Korea - $20,400
Cuba -- $3,500
North Korea - $1,700

What is it that you think Castro and Kim Jong Il are doing that is so wonderful for their people?

[Ashock]

What is it that you think Castro and Kim Jong Il are doing that is so wonderful for their people?

Pretty much everything... at least according to their subj... err.... citizens. Ignorance is bliss.

-A

[eppie]

No. Think about extortion. "If you don't supply me with free fuel oil and free food, I'll develop an arsenal of WMD." "If you don't capitulate to my demands I will send 1 million refugees into South Korea and destabilize their economy." "If you don't withdraw all your forces from South Korea I will ..."

Thank you, this is a reasonable thing and a nice reply. Better than calling people you don't agree with fools.;)

What is it with you and despots? The only thing Kim is protecting is his daddy's legacy and his supply of cognac, caviar, and playboy lifestyle while the majority of North Koreans huddle shivering in famine and squalor. You might not like the US military, but from what I can tell it's what's keeping 50 million South Koreans free of Kim Jong Il's tyranny.

GDP/Capita --
United States - $41,800
Netherlands - $30,500
South Korea - $20,400
Cuba -- $3,500
North Korea - $1,700

What is it that you think Castro and Kim Jong Il are doing that is so wonderful for their people?

I'm not saying I like Kim, I'm saying I can understand his reasoning when he choses to get himself a nuke.
Those are two different things.


North Korea I know very little about. But you might also add the price of a bread, a house or medical service in your list.
And I like what Castro is doing. The reason communism failed is because it was existing next to capitalism, and when people see wealth, they want that as well. Just like e.g. the mexicans that come to the US. Once they are in the country theyt see there is a huge group of people even poorer then themselves....that is not what they saw on TV when they were backhome.

I am against dictatorships but for communist regimes it is in todays world the only thing to go with. The world would have been much better if the communist (or lets better say socialists) in the US were not eliminated by the rich industrials of the beginning of the 20th century (if im correct). (who will tell the people....i forgot the writer)

The main reason why I stand for socialism and not for extreme capitalism (like the capitalism we have nowadays) is that creating poverty is inherent to capitalism. Also environmental destruction and maltreating of animals. We will do something against global warming only when we can start making money from it......that sort of thing.

And in a world that (according to me) is going down the drains a person like castro for me is a small positive point, although I of course disagree with oppresion. That is why I react like I do sometimes here on the lounge. I'm no hardcore communist. I just hate the idea a lot of westerners have about 'having defeated communism'.....the results of a worldwide extremistic capitalism will be much and much worse than anything we saw during the communist year.

(sorry for the fuzzy writing, but I dont have internet at home, and am very busy at work....)

[Occhidiangela]

Thank you, this is a reasonable thing and a nice reply. Better than calling people you don't agree with fools.;)

The shoe fits, so wear it Cinderella.

Making baseless assertions can be considered foolish, and thus the actions of a fool.

Prince Occhi

[Tal]

In the last 5 years the US has shown to have absolutely no problem with invading a country. NK was next.....

Not that North Korea has no history whatsoever of being the aggressor in a conflict. Lets call building the nuke what it really is - a hammer to use on South Korea.

[Occhidiangela]

Not that North Korea has no history whatsoever of being the aggressor in a conflict. Lets call building the nuke what it really is - a hammer to use on South Korea.

Uh, Tal, how about a little love for the Japanese here? They get to be a target also . . . IMO, a more likely one than South Korea.

One of Kim Il SUng's (Pater Familias Kim) dreams was the reunification of Korea (under his faction's control of course), so under that guiding principle, I don't see poisoning the sacred land of Korea as consistent with the political aim. Japanese soil would be held in lower in esteem. However, in support of your idea, it's not beyond reason that one small area of Korea would be sacrificed for the greater good as seen from Pyongyang, as a means to an end.

Occhi

[eppie]

The shoe fits, so wear it Cinderella.

Making baseless assertions can be considered foolish, and thus the actions of a fool.

Prince Occhi

First I thought you put a komma in a strategic place, but no, you really want to call me a fool. Why do you do it? It doesn't make what you say more true, and it also doesn't convince somebody that does not agree with you. Mind you the lounges history on the actions of the US, show I was most of the time right....so a bit more modesty would suit you.
For sure when a recent research showed that Holland is number one in the world when it comes to freedom of press, the US a lousy 53rd...very close to North Korea:D So or start reading dutch newspapers, or take your sources with a big grain of salt.

[Occhidiangela]

First I thought you put a komma in a strategic place, but no, you really want to call me a fool. Why do you do it? It doesn't make what you say more true, and it also doesn't convince somebody that does not agree with you. Mind you the lounges history on the actions of the US, show I was most of the time right....so a bit more modesty would suit you.
For sure when a recent research showed that Holland is number one in the world when it comes to freedom of press, the US a lousy 53rd...very close to North Korea:D So or start reading dutch newspapers, or take your sources with a big grain of salt.

The wonderfulness of Dutch newspapers has nothing to do with a fool calling himself eppie who asserts that "North Korea is next" thanks to a lack of understanding, a narrow world view, and a lack of wit. You make the fallacious presumption that if you dislike a party enough, and can point to odious decisions -- BushCo in this case -- any assertion you make can be presumed true. If you keep making foolish assertions, I'll be happy to bust your chops for it.

Occhi