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Hey, SaxyCorp here...
I have a request for anyone that can answer this or if anyone has figured it out, or.... if anyone wants to anymore. What are the odds of getting certain kinds of runes? We all know that the common runes are all over the place, but what about the statistical appearance of the semi-rare and the extremely rare?
Just a question.... after about 50 or so rune runs to The Countess (Nightmare) I've only gotten 2 semis, and boatloads of commons on a level 76 Druid.
Thanks guys...
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Chances of getting anything higher than Vex, from anywhere in the game, are incredibly low. Drop calculators have odds on these, but I'm disinclined to believe them simply on the basis that the rare runes seem to drop more often than they would indicate. They are still unbelievably hard to find.
Vex and below can be reliably retrieved from the 1-player Hell Countess if you're willing to run her enough.
Hellforge rushing and then cubing is an option for high level runes if you have a good buddy.
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The odds of runes dropping from any given monster are known, it just isn't worth the effort to list them all somewhere.
The number of high runes you expect to find per lower rune is much smaller than people expect though, almost universally.
You can talk about how many Els you expect to see per higher rune, that way you don't need to worry about the complicated
parts of the Countess' drop, because those ratios are the same independent of players, no-drops, etc.
From NM Countess, you can expect an Io every 40 Els
A Hel every 27
Dol 20
Shael 14
Sol 11
Amn 7
In single player games you can expect about 3 Els every 8 runs from the NM Countess (this is a less precise figure). So you can work out how many runs per higher rune from that if you like. As you can see, from 50 NM Countess runs, don't expect to be showered in rune wealth.
Samka, I see no reason to distrust the calculators (well, except the ones that are known to be inaccurate).
Runes always seem to be more common than they really are because they are only reported when they are found. People don't post each day to say "found 0 Bers, 0 Jahs, 0 Chams, 0 Zods today!" Even though they fall very rarely, they still fall often enough (well, maybe not Zod) that with all the people playing, one will fall every now and then - that person tells everyone about it, it makes it seem more common. Just because something is a 1/100,000 shot doesn't mean that everyone has to do 100,000 runs to find one. Although it does mean that there will be 99,999 unlucky runs for each lucky one, just other people are doing them.
"Thank you. We always have a shortage of unfounded opinions, so this will really help us. " - adeyke
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I distrust the drop calculators because super-uniques and bosses seem to drop runes more often than the calculators would indicate. ATMA gives odds for the Countess to drop Vex in one player are listed at under 900000:1. Yet the one person that I play D2 with has retrieved a number of Vex runes from the Countess, running her nothing like that many times. Has also retrieved Ohm and Lo(2) runes from pindle and meph runs. Results like this are amazingly small according to the drop calculators, and yet occur fairly regularly with runners.
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Thanks everyone.
Just more of a statistical proof of how long of a quest this is going to be....
Better get back to it....
-SaxyCorp
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Few questions left unanswered:
What exactly do the chances to drop look like for hell countess?
Does magic find affect the chances to drop?
Do the number of players have an effect?
Is there an uber drop on quest completion?
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Quote:ATMA gives odds for the Countess to drop Vex in one player are listed at under 900000:1
Actually, that number may be closer than you think (but still off). The Countess has two different drops: her normal drop, and her rune drop. The rune drop (obviously) only drops runes. Her normal drop drops anything she is capable of dropping, including runes. The normal drop has a lower chance of dropping runes compared to the rune drop, but a higher chance than most monsters. What is interesting to note, however, is that her normal drop can drop higher runes than her rune drop (at least in 1.09, not sure if they increased her rune drop enough to be on par or above this).
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Quote:What exactly do the chances to drop look like for hell countess?
According to ATMA, for a 1 player game, a single kill has these probabilities:
El: 1/2.41
Eld: 1/3.42
Tir: 1/4.03
Eth: 1/5.59
Nef: 1/5.85
Tal: 1/6.64
Ith: 1/8.21
Ort: 1/9.33
Ral: 1/9.78
Thul: 1/13
Amn: 1/15
Sol: 1/22
Shael: 1/28
Dol: 1/42
Hel: 1/54
Io: 1/81
Lum: 1/107
Ko: 1/160
Fal: 1/212
Lem: 1/318
Pul: 1/423
Um: 1/635
Mal: 1/739
Ist: 1/1,109
Gul: 1/122,049
Vex: 1/183,073
Ohm: 1/213,464
Lo: 1/320,196
Quote:Does magic find affect the chances to drop?
No. MF affects only the quality of the drop, not the base item.
Quote:Is there an uber drop on quest completion?
Just the one from the chest. Only act bosses have special quest drop TCs.
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adeyke, the ATMA calculator currently has one known flaw, which is that it overestimates the odds for Countess rune drops (up to Ist). This is because we haven't found a neat way to account for the 6 item drop cap and its potential interactions with the 8 potential item drops the Countess gets.
It is easy enough to do that for Act bosses who get 7 potential drops all from the same TC, but because of the Countess' split TC it would require some more sophisticated special-case coding to account for it.
The numbers ATMA does list are as if the Countess could drop all 8 items. This does not affect her Item drop chances because the full Countess Item drop can always occur. But it does mean the runes get overestimated. The actual chance of an Ist dropping in a single player game is about 1/1300, to give you an idea of the magnitude of overestimation. Also, because the odds of an Item drop rune are so low compared to the Rune drop runes, it is close to a linear scaling factor that they are out by.
"Thank you. We always have a shortage of unfounded opinions, so this will really help us. " - adeyke
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Ah. Thanks for that clarification. I suspected there was something wrong with the calculations. I was going to comment that having multiple players in the game would decrease her chances of dropping runes, but I found that ATMA's information didn't actually support that statement. I'll have to keep this in mind and not use ATMA for finding Countess drop odds until it's fixed.
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Well, i have a question:
The matter is, the rune is between range hard coded. If the upper normal is thul i think, the computer itself HAS NO MEMORY. The rune forge quest give equal chances between the range: one of them can be, but no "eld" runes in hell, i think.
The difference os the countess "drop rune value", i want say, if a "el drop" fail, try a "eld drop". If this is the case, we have really tiny chances of the good drops, but in reality the runes go between range.
Is unsafe think if the range is between runes "1 to 20" get a 10 level rune relatively regular? No. because the countess in nm give many shaels, sol and amn, and not much els.
The cuestion is what is the range of the countess and the hell forge in all three diff levels.
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Well, I can answer the last question.
Hellforge
Normal: El-Amn
NM: Sol-Um
Hell: Hel-Gul
The Hellforge drops with uniform distribution within these ranges (including the end points)
Countess
Normal: Ral, Nef
Nightmare: Io, Ko
Hell: Ist, Lo
The Countess drops up to the first rune listed from her rune drop (ie, often) and up tot he second listed from her item drop (ie hardly ever). Yes, in normal the item drop is below the rune drop. The Countess can drop Els on all difficulties. The distribution for her drops is the same as for any monster that can drop runes of that level. All rune sources besides the Hellforge ultimately use the same TC heirarchy.
"Thank you. We always have a shortage of unfounded opinions, so this will really help us. " - adeyke
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03-25-2004, 05:51 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-25-2004, 05:52 PM by Warleader.)
Well, i make the last night an experiment. I use a ice blast Sorc level 57 in europe: Attributes 20 Ice Blast, and meteor. I am currently thinking in a all ice blast sorc, and use this as a try. Repeat, the 20 ice blast is without synergies, 0 points in FO.
I was very safe, my merc is a Barb with -45 damage and a stupid bad sword ( executioner of something, dont remeber ), my sorc have 300% MF ( chances, 3t armor and head, rhyme, gull and goldwrap)
I not check the time, sorry, but make a excel spreadsheet if someone want see.
Test field: a Dozen Nightmare countess:
Results abreviated in MF: 2 manald rings ( 7 and 5 ), string of ears, frostburns, iratha crown, cathan ring, angel ring
Other runes different to Countess 2 tals, different runs
Bests drops: Hel and sol ( distinct runs )
Mathematical result : A Shael each run aprox.
I make equivalents between el, thuls and lems, because are a barrier, last without gems, and last with three past runes.
one Amn= 59049 el
one lem = 59049 thul
one zod = 12288 lems
Numbers more adequate than billions, i think.
I report here the next 132 runs results.
edit: forgot say set drops.
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