calculating defense and chance to be hit

[WarriorWalrus]

I am working on a shockadin, a paladin using the holy shock aura with low level zeal. I am planning on using the unique sharktooth armor toothrow, partly for the open wounds and partly because it is the best armor I currently have. That armor has 198% enhanced defense, which started me wondering if it would be worth upgrading.

I have tried calculating the chance to be hit, but in DII the calculations are not always straightforward. I would appreaciate if someone could verify if the formulas are correct.

The armor has a defense of 816. A Kraken shell has a defense range from 417-523, so I used the average of 470. Upgraded, the defense would be 470 + 198% +45 = 1915.

Now, a level 5 holy shield has a bonus of 100% to defense (including the synergy). A high level defiant merc has a bonus of 240%, for a total bonus of 340%. (I am assuming the bonusus add. Is this correct?) So, now the defense with the origional armor is 3590, and the upgraded defense is 8426.

According to the Arreat Summit, Hell Lords have an attact rating of 6066. I will assume a level 85 character in the worldstone keep, so the monster level will also be 85.

The to hit formula is 100 * ( AR / AR + DR) * 2 * (alvl / alvl + dlvl). alvl (attacker level) and dlvl (defense level) are both 85, AR is 6066, and DR is either 3590 or 8426. That results in:

.................................defense.........defense with HS and aura.......chance to be hit
origional armor ...........815........................3590...................................62.8%
upgraded armor..........1915.......................8426...................................41.8%

If the formulas and calculations are correct, then upgrading the armor would result in a 20% reduction in the chance to be hit by a very tough monster, which is seems significant. However, nothing comes without a cost. The highest strength needed for the rest of the equipment is 109 (a socketed sacred rondache). A kraken shell needs a strength of 174, which is more than I want to spend. A jewel of freedom would reduce that to a more manageable 148. The extra 39 strength points would have to come out of vitality which would reduce life by 117.

So is being hit 20% less worth having 117 less in life?

Any thoughts or corrections would be appreaciated.

Thanks,

WarriorWalrus

[adeyke]

The armor has a defense of 816. A Kraken shell has a defense range from 417-523, so I used the average of 470. Upgraded, the defense would be 470 + 198% +45 = 1915.

Check your math.

470 + 198% + 45 = 1445.

Also, it seems that you're assuming you won't have any defense other than your body armour. You are (or would be, if you calculated the defense right) just comparing 816 to 1,445 (an increase of 77%). Now, I don't know what gloves, belt, boots or helm you're wearing or exactly how much defense is on your shield, but even if those other pieces of armour just added up to 300 or so, you'd have to compare 1,116 to 1745 (an increase of 56%). The higher the defense on your other armour is, the less significant the upgrade becomes.

Finally, the stats for monsters on the AS are potentially all wrong, since they don't account for the mlvl scaling. I'm not sure exactly how much AR they'd actually have at mlvl 85, though (6134?).

Also, a difference between 62.8% and 41.8% really means being hit 33% less, not 20% less.

If you really could get hit that much less at the cost of just 117 life, I think it'd be worth it. However, I don't see that this is actually the case.

[Ruvanal]

Finally, the stats for monsters on the AS are potentially all wrong, since they don't account for the mlvl scaling.  I'm not sure exactly how much AR they'd actually have at mlvl 85, though (6134?).

If I am looking at the right monster in the files then, yes the AR would be 6134.

[WarriorWalrus]

Ok, I will try it again.

The character is currently using:
rare hydraskull ......def 310 (etheral but repairs durability)
venom grip gloves def 112
goblin toe ..............def 33
sacred rondache.....def 161
gloldwrap ...............def 35
-------------------------------------
total ......................def 651

The character is currently in nightmare; in hell, the belt in particular may change but will not necessarly change in defense much. (I will probably need some more resists, I may have to use a magic plated belt of some kind)

So, the total defense would be.............................including bonuses from holy shield (+100%) and merc (+240%)
with origional armor 815 + 651 = 1466........................6450
with upgraded armor 1445 + 651 = 2096....................9222

and the chance to be hit would be (level 85 hell lord and character, AR = 6134)
with origional armor 48.7%
with upgraded armor 39.9%

for a difference of (48.7-39.9)/48.7 = 18%

So I am being hit 18% less - but the shield would have blocked 75% of those hits anyway. I am now thinking that the best course will be to leave the armor alone and put the points into vitality.

Thanks for the help!

WarriorWalrus