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Greetings!
What are the chances of that happening?
I always gamble rings with my MF Barb to get a cool MF ring (oh really?) and I have never ever got two rares in a row before.
And now that. It should be nigh impossible, so mb it's a strange little bug?
But wait, that's not all!
The sixth ring turned out to be a"Felicitous Ring of Luck" (IIRC) with 29% MF...
Was it luck, an item generation problem, l337 h4x0rs?
What do you think?
Servus
Nuur
P.S.: oh, all the rare rings were utter crap, Ormus style.
"I'm a cynical optimistic realist. I have hopes. I suspect they are all in vain. I find a lot of humor in that." -Pete
I'll remember you.
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Well, if this never happened than something would be wrong. If the chances of you getting 5 rare rings in a row were zero, then it wouldn't be very random.
Wierd things always happen in random systems. The idea is that they're supposed to balance themselves out. Coming from a Seven Lances perspective, I've spent millions upon millions gambling on stuff for sets, mostly getting junk. Then all of a sudden I gamble three set items in a row, a circlet, circlet, and tiara (what i was actually going for).
Just yesterday I had one superchest spit out 1 magic item while the other right next to it spit out 4 rares.
Of course, if you believe in karma, you realize you have no chances of ever getting a rare again :P
Trade yourself in for the perfect one. No one needs to know that you feel you've been ruined!
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05-16-2003, 10:45 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2003, 10:52 AM by NuurAbSaal.)
I'm sure in 7Lances it's perfectly normal to get 3 Set Items in a row and 4 rares from a chest, ha!
I'm talking about FIVE rare rings in LOD, I know I'm blessed and you are just jealous! No way it's a real possibility that could happen to anyone, only I know the tru7h and now I will rule the world...
...
:lol:
Thx for replying but I actually wanted to know the chances of something like that happening (this happens a lot to me :(. I guess I should go a little more towards understandable and less enertainment value with my questions...). And as of yesterday I no longer believe in Karma :)
Greetings
Nuur
EDIT: "Greetings" is back (4 u Fridge :) )
"I'm a cynical optimistic realist. I have hopes. I suspect they are all in vain. I find a lot of humor in that." -Pete
I'll remember you.
Posts: 2,161
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Joined: Feb 2003
Warning: I do not know if this stat applies to the latest version.
Okay, first resource I found says a 7% chance for rare gambling. Given that you did it five times in a row:
(7/100)^5 (if my analysis class hasn't failed me too badly) should give you your answer.
(7/100)^5 = .0000016807
.00016807 % chance. :blink: well, I knew it was low, but ... I want your luck. I could seriously use it since in 7L the new patch introduced a bunch of new sets and so far my 12 new set items are all of different sets.
Trade yourself in for the perfect one. No one needs to know that you feel you've been ruined!
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Quote:00016807 % chance
...
oh boy!
Thanks Quark
Nuur
"I'm a cynical optimistic realist. I have hopes. I suspect they are all in vain. I find a lot of humor in that." -Pete
I'll remember you.
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Assuming you would have considered yourself just as lucky if you had gotten uniques or sets in the middle of that streak, than the chance goes up to 15% per gamble (7% rare, 5% set, 3% unique - Don't know whether this is accurate for 1.09).
So (15/100)^5 = 0.0000759375 = 1 / 13169
Not likely, but given that you've probably gambled literally a thousand or more times, not horribly unlikely that it would happen sometime during your D2 career. And given that millions of people have played this game, there are probably thousands of people that got lucky on each of their first five gambles.
As for the lottery, imagine if you bought a lottery ticket for every time you gambled in D2. I think you'd get poor a lot faster than you'd get rich. :rolleyes:
- Dagni
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I seem to remember the chance to roll rare was upgraded in 1.09. Something like 8% or 10%..
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05-26-2003, 12:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-26-2003, 01:01 PM by Jugalator.)
Dagni,May 17 2003, 08:19 PM Wrote:As for the lottery, imagine if you bought a lottery ticket for every time you gambled in D2. I think you'd get poor a lot faster than you'd get rich.
Hehe, speaking of lottery tickets reminds me of a guy over at diabloii.net that found a Zod and posted about it, going totally crazy about it (like I would too, btw) :). It's fun to compare the odds for finding that Zod (should be something like 106670000:1 from a Hell Bovine) to other "real world" odds:
http://www.scottware.com.au/tickets/odds.htm
But one needs to take into account that you probably kill far more cows than the number of lottery tickets you'd ever buy if you're a hardcore cowrunner like he probably was.
Btw, that site is kinda funny in that it lists getting married as a "life time risk" :lol:
<span style="color:orange">Account: jugalator // <span style="color:orange">Realm: Europe // <span style="color:orange">Mode: Softcore (kinda inactive nowadays though)
Loyal Diablo fan since 1997 :-)
