MOG Stats

[Bun-Bun]

Take a look at MOG Subscription Statistics for a peek at the subscriber base for a number of popular MOGs. It looks like market saturation is taking hold.

It doesn't even have data for City of Heroes yet, and I'd be interested to see if that's sucking away existing subscribers or creating new ones.

[--Pete]

Hi,

Couple of interesting things from that page. One, it doesn't look like expansion packs have much of an effect, at least not in the long term. Of course, they may not so much increase the number of subscribers as keep the existing subscribers by providing new content. Second, I'd say that there is no indication of market saturation yet. I do wish that he had included a cumulative curve so that we could more easily see the overall trend and the ratio of each game to that trend. But just looking at the few top games, the total seems to be continuing a rapid increase. While some games are flattening out (EverQuest and UO), the introduction of new games seems to be getting new customers rather than "stealing" them from other games (which would be indicated by a downturn in the number of subscribers to the older games).

I might just have to download his data and do some small analysis -- just as soon as I get the rest of my life together :)

--Pete

[Walkiry]

It doesn't even have data for City of Heroes yet, and I'd be interested to see if that's sucking away existing subscribers or creating new ones.

I am, of course, far from an expert, but my impression was that CoH is indeed creating new suscribers more than cannibalizing existing userbases. I have no hard data on this, mostly what I see in-game and read in the forums.

[Cryptic]

There's still lots of room for growth, if companies are willing to take an unusual marketing approach to reach out to more subscribers (such as Lineage, which dwarves all US MMORPGs). I think we'll see the most cannibalization in US fantasy titles - EQ2 and WoW will go head to head; in pure numbers, WoW will get clobbered. But I'm certain it will be mightily profitable.

Hopefully the saturation of the fantasy market will lead to the introduction of more unusual games, such as City of Heroes. Non-fantasy Massives I would love to play include:

Alice (Dark Wonderland)
BattleTech - Succession Wars era
Cthulhu
Deus Ex
Warhammer 40K

Too bad this "real life" thing keeps demanding so much time ...

[Walkiry]

Non-fantasy Massives I would love to play include:

Alice (Dark Wonderland)
BattleTech - Succession Wars era
Cthulhu
Deus Ex
Warhammer 40K

My vote goes for a MMO version of Paranoia.

^_^

[Assur]

Hopefully the saturation of the fantasy market will lead to the introduction of more unusual games, such as City of Heroes.  Non-fantasy Massives I would love to play include:

Alice (Dark Wonderland)
BattleTech - Succession Wars era
Cthulhu
Deus Ex
Warhammer 40K

Too bad this "real life" thing keeps demanding so much time ...

Hi

They killed the classic Warhammer MMORPG a few weeks ago, so I don't think Warhammer 40k is on the cards. As regards Battletech, didn't they kill Battletech 3025 (online/with organized promotion structures) 2 years ago?

I think Wow will rule, it's the only game I'm waiting for at the moment.

good karma

[Bun-Bun]

I'd love that, but I'm running short of expendable clones. And I'm not even a Commie Mutant. Really!

As I recall, Allen Varney was doing a new version of Paranoia. I should call him and see how it's going.

[Cryptic]

>>My vote goes for a MMO version of Paranoia.

That would be hysterical, but I don't think anyone but the veterans would have the patience for it.

Bob: "Help! I just got a bounty put on my head by the Computer, just because I didn't fill out some 'Yellow Clearance' paperwork correctly!"
Frank: "No problem, Bob. Come here and I'll help you out."
**Frank attacks Bob with plasma rifle for 86 damage**
**Bob dies**
Frank: "Wow, nice bounty. Let's go buy your new character some gear."
:P

[Lissa]

Actually, this is fairly old data (only up through Jan of this year).

The problem with it is it doesn't give you an idea of how many accounts/subscriptions are held per customer on average. Before you can call it market saturation, you have to have those numbers (accounts/customer) as I know a number of people held several (I remember running into people in Earth and Beyond that had 5 or more accounts, yes, they were spending $60+/month on one game).