Every Picture Tells a Story

[Occhidiangela]

A friend sent me this link, asking me to take a good hard look at the "by county" vote.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...4/countymap.htm

You will note that in Austin, Texas, Kerry carried the day. (No surprise, if you have ever been to Austin, a place that I simply love.)

He then told me to check out the "murders per 100,000" stats in the red and blue areas. He of course provided no data, so I had to look around the web, FBI had some good info. I later found out that the genesis of this comment by my friend was listening to Rush Limbaugh. Joy. But I looked into it anyway.

Even though Rush is a blowhard, if the numbers are even half right . . . Spooky.

Now, FBI says

By State:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_03/xl/03tbl05.xls

By metropolitain area:

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_03/xl/03tbl06.xls

Interesting.

At ground level, it is a rather pointless comparison, though as a mental exercise, on could look hard behind the numbers and consider a variety of factors that could explain why, or reveal mere coincidence.

PS: No, conclusion is NOT that Democrats are a bunch of murdering vagabonds. Not hardly.

Fun with maps, and fun with pondering multi variable problems.

Occhi

[jahcs]

From what I've seen, in general, more crowded areas tend to vote for the democratic candidate. Compare the map of election info to a map of US census population density. Then compare the census map to the crime information.

I would suggest the murder information is more of a problem where population pressures are higher. And where popualtion pressure is higher people might have more of a mindset of "what can the government do for me" instead of "what can I do for myself." My view of the democratic party, with the greater number and more sweeping social programs it tends to promote, is that it falls more in line with the first mindset.

[Rinnhart]

*shrug* Correlation ╘ causation. (nt)

[Minionman]

No no no, lets just admit it, the democrats are a coalition of smart people and criminals. :P

(smart people is a joke on the fake IQ lists, criminals joke comes from this thread)

[Occhidiangela]

*shrug* Correlation + causation. (nt)
[right][snapback]59656[/snapback][/right]

What one probably needs is about 25 more spread sheets, each with a by county or by metropolitain area per capita figure on

Taxes
income
Health costsw
level of education
hours of TV per week
hours on the internet per week
literatcy level
ethnic group (sadly, any number of local races break down along racial lines. Sad but true.)

To try to find a better relationship between vote and conditions that move one to one party platform or another, or against one party platform or another.

The murder stat is of course a "it bleeds it leads" sort of label, and of course is why the catalyst to this line of inquiry was that great blowhard, the Rush. He's all about emotional triggers. All Michael Moore has to do is lose as much weight as Rush did a few years ago, and the two can be almost perfect opposite faces on the coin of political ranting, foaming at the mouth, tunnel vision and rhetoric. :P

Occhi

[Zarathustra]

Occhi, I'm going to have to correct you here. It's just not acceptable nowadays to leave things as they are without implying a cause and effect, thereby damning either the Republicans or the Democrats (whichever one happens to feel are the bane of America as we know it).

The proper explanation for this data is that the reason John Kerry lost the election is the number of possible votes that were taken out of the system. The Democrats kill their own people and it's really a case of social Darwinism being reflected through voting strength.

*shakes head* In the future, I hope you'll abandon these nonsensical ideas like "logic" and "rationale" and start flinging mud like so many others.

;)

[Jeunemaitre]

What one probably needs is about 25 more spread sheets, each with a by county or by metropolitain area per capita figure on

Taxes
income
Health costsw
level of education
hours of TV per week
hours on the internet per week
literatcy level
ethnic group (sadly, any number of local races break down along racial lines.  Sad but true.)

To try to find a better relationship between vote and conditions that move one to one party platform or another, or against one party platform or another....

Mmmm, regression analysis on par with the census bureau (but add gender to your list of variables, and look at things grouped by zip codes rather than anything useful). Just make sure to avoid stepwise methods, our you'll find things that aren't there.

[Occhidiangela]

Occhi, I'm going to have to correct you here.  It's just not acceptable nowadays to leave things as they are without implying a cause and effect, thereby damning either the Republicans or the Democrats (whichever one happens to feel are the bane of America as we know it).

The proper explanation for this data is that the reason John Kerry lost the election is the number of possible votes that were taken out of the system.  The Democrats kill their own people and it's really a case of social Darwinism being reflected through voting strength.

*shakes head*  In the future, I hope you'll abandon these nonsensical ideas like "logic" and "rationale" and start flinging mud like so many others.

;)
[right][snapback]59747[/snapback][/right]

Sigh, I am once again completely out of touch with the "real America," I can't tell you how much I appreciate your attempts to enlighten a living anachronism. ;)

Retro Rogue

[Archon_Wing]

Oh, damned Republicians. I didn't know they would go as far as murdering people who would vote for the Democractic party. :lol:

This is what you get for having those damned whiney liberals being so soft on crime!

Even though the election is over, Mudslinging can still go on.

[Occhidiangela]

Even though the election is over, Mudslinging can still go on.
[right][snapback]59784[/snapback][/right]

Sad to say, it is going on in spades. Turned on the radio when I got back home today, and it was on AM talk radio (I love Glenn Beck) which at this time of day features Sean Hanady. *vomit* Luckily, my ability to change stations to the Blues/Country station, "the Texas mix" trumped his ability to be sanctimonious!

Rogue 1
Ranting Jerk 0

Occhi

[Minionman]

Oh, damned Republicians. I didn't know they would go as far as murdering people who would vote for the Democractic party. :lol:

This is what you get for having those damned whiney liberals being so soft on crime!

Even though the election is over, Mudslinging can still go on.
[right][snapback]59784[/snapback][/right]

I think we should all invest in a mud store and development company. We can have some people test it on each other.

[Obi2Kenobi]

Here's a better map, which shades the counties based on how strongly it went to each candidate.

http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/

However, all of these maps are misleading, as it would appear that Bush got 70+% of the vote, when in fact, it's just that rural areas are generally more Republican.

level of education

And besides, this figure is unimportant, everyone knows that the educated people don't vote Republican. Of course, we also don't vote Democrat. :) *slings more mud*

/edit: Well, actually, I suppose that, since I don't "belong" to either group, my opinion is irrelevant. :rolleyes:

[Occhidiangela]

Here's a better map, which shades the counties based on how strongly it went to each candidate.

http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2004/

However, all of these maps are misleading, as it would appear that Bush got 70+% of the vote, when in fact, it's just that rural areas are generally more Republican.
And besides, this figure is unimportant, everyone knows that the educated people don't vote Republican. Of course, we also don't vote Democrat. :) *slings more mud*

/edit: Well, actually, I suppose that, since I don't "belong" to either group, my opinion is irrelevant. :rolleyes:
[right][snapback]60230[/snapback][/right]

Since about 115 million voted, and 70-80 million did not, maybe your opinion matters a bit more than you give it credit for! :) I am an independent, have been since I registered to vote in 1977.

Thanks for the link.

Occhi

[Fragbait]

Since about 115 million voted, and 70-80 million did not, maybe your opinion matters a bit more than you give it credit for!  :)  I am an independent, have been since I registered to vote in 1977.

Thanks for the link.

Occhi
[right][snapback]60234[/snapback][/right]

Hi,

Well, actually many more did not. Google research turned out an interesting page at www.census.gov . Although it represents figures from the election 2000, it states that there were 217.8 million of voting-age U.S. residents.
The figures for 2004 must be somewhere near 220 million, so if 115 million voted, over 100 million did not! (disclaimer: I'm not saying that the voter turnout is any better in other states at all) The implications of this (3rd candidate etc.) have been mentioned already.
If you'd want the link: census.gov link

Greetings, Fragbait

[jahcs]

The census article states:

"(A portion of all these residents are ineligible to vote because they are noncitizens.)"

How big is this portion? Anyone have the info?

[kandrathe]

The census article states:

"(A portion of all these residents are ineligible to vote because they are noncitizens.)"

How big is this portion?  Anyone have the info?
[right][snapback]60267[/snapback][/right]

http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/s...tics/lprest.htm

So, ~ 3 - 5% of the US population.

[jahcs]

Thanks Kandrathe.

Using the April 1996 immigration with the 2004 election info gives us about 92 million people that didn't vote. Then subtract the felons and other ineligibles. Our country had just over 90 million slackers this election.

Not a bad voter turnout. This election did raise awareness of how important voting is and I hope the trend continues. Now we just need to ensure the voters are educated on the issues so they can make informed decisions. (Which is probably a pie-in-the-sky dream.)

[kandrathe]

Thanks Kandrathe.

Using the April 1996 immigration with the 2004 election info gives us about 92 million people that didn't vote.  Then subtract the felons and other ineligibles.  Our country had just over 90 million slackers this election.

Not a bad voter turnout.  This election did raise awareness of how important voting is and I hope the trend continues.  Now we just need to ensure the voters are educated on the issues so they can make informed decisions.  (Which is probably a pie-in-the-sky dream.)
[right][snapback]60273[/snapback][/right]

I know turn out was high in my state. Something like 77% of the eligible voters did so, and the national average was ~61%, which is as good as it has been since 1968. I suspect many of the non-voters are either elderly and can't get out, or young and don't care yet. Still there is plenty of apathy, and ignorance.

[Minionman]

This one's sort of interesting, given the way "morla values" was a big part of the election. It isn't an exact fit, but sort of works. Nevada election results

Prostitution laws

There are some little details in the article that explain some of the reasons for the different laws, I still find this interesting with the way "moral values", and "family values" get thrown around.