Tradeskilling

[Shriek]

I find myself needing more detailed information (and hopefully a formula), so, naturally, I come here (Ok, so I've been here for a while; I once even posted a speed calculation worksheet for DII :P ...it's just time for a "set lurk off"....or is that "set lurker on"?).

Usefulness of crafted items aside, I'm trying to raise my leatherworking skill and finding the color-codes (i.e. Orange=definately, Yellow=maybe, Green=probably not, Grey=time to move on) to be insufficient to determine my best item to grind on.

I have observed that a pattern that "just went yellow" is more likely to grant a point than one that is "about to go green", so it seems likely that there is a ramp down per skill point rather than steps. My objective, therefore, is to create a table of percent chance to grant a skill point per resource, per pattern, per skill level. This would give me an at-a-glance indication of the most efficient pattern to grind on, disregarding all secondary materials.

My assumption is that the yellow and green levels are determined by the percent chance to grant a point per item, so something like:

Orange = 100%
Yellow = 50 - 99%
Green = 1 - 49%
Grey = 0%

I'm in the process of collecting information on the skill levels at which patterns turn yellow, green, and grey. Statistical analysis should then show if it's a straight progression or curved.

Does anyone have any further information to share or better data collection methods to suggest?

[Boutros]

Allakhazam lists the level at which tradeskill items turn green or grey, but strangely don't list the required skill or the skill at which they turn yellow.

[Roo]

Usefulness of crafted items aside, I'm trying to raise my leatherworking skill and finding the color-codes (i.e. Orange=definately, Yellow=maybe, Green=probably not, Grey=time to move on) to be insufficient to determine my best item to grind on.

The best item to grind on is the one that uses the least amount of materials easily acquired and has the highest skill-up potential.

I have observed that a pattern that "just went yellow" is more likely to grant a point than one that is "about to go green", so it seems likely that there is a ramp down per skill point rather than steps.  My objective, therefore, is to create a table of percent chance to grant a skill point per resource, per pattern, per skill level.  This would give me an at-a-glance indication of the most efficient pattern to grind on, disregarding all secondary materials.

Welcome to the human need to perceive order in chaos. I've personally seen strings of 10 consectutive skill-ups on a green level craft and 10 consectutive failures on a yellow level craft. Those results would be tough to fit into the data model you describe.

My assumption is that the yellow and green levels are determined by the percent chance to grant a point per item, so something like:

Orange = 100%
Yellow = 50 - 99%
Green = 1 - 49%
Grey = 0%

My experience shows the chance to grant a skill point is a fixed percentage possibility such as:

Orange = 0% failure
Yellow = 33% failure
Green = 67% failure
Grey = 100% failure

I believe the skill-up level data is contained within the .MPQ files(client side).

As far as crafting goes here are several things to keep in mind:

1. There is not a great deal of uniformity on when a craft will go from orange to gray, some crafts can go through that range within 10 skill points, while another craft might be 30, even though they both become available at "175 skill". I suspect this is because someone did a rough pass at "balancing" the crafts based upon desirability of the craft and materials required for it. There are some cheesy skill-up points in all the crafting lines, look for them.

2. Crafting in WoW is not particularly geared toward efficiencies. Yes, you may be able to find a route from 0 to 300 with the absolute minimum amount of materials, but the brute force method of going out farming up the materials may prove just as viable and much quicker too. Pursuing a green craft with abundant quickly farmable materials can be easier than an orange craft with much rarer materials until you can find the next cheesy crafting point.

[playingtokrush]

My experience agrees with Shriek's, for the most part, rather than Roo's.

[Malakar]

My experience shows the chance to grant a skill point is a fixed percentage possibility such as:

Orange = 0% failure
Yellow = 33% failure
Green = 67% failure
Grey = 100% failure

This is generally how it feels to me, though I think there may be some exceptions in that certain greens have a higher failure rate than that. I definitely feel that all yellows are around 2/3 success rate though.

[Kevin]

My experience shows the chance to grant a skill point is a fixed percentage possibility such as:

Orange = 0% failure
Yellow = 33% failure
Green = 67% failure
Grey = 100% failure
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I'm going to do a "me too!" on that this is how it feels for me as well. I've had very streaky results with yellows and greens which just lends itself to this more. The only addition I have is that greens seem to drop way down if it is one skill from a change over to grey. Yellows do not seem to do that for me and since I have two mid 30's leatherworkers there were times when I knew what the yellow to green changover was going to be because I just saw it with my malt. I never saw the equivalent streaks of fails like I did with greens going for the last point before a changeover.

[Zarathustra]

Just to echo what's been said earlier, find a relatively cheap item to make (materials-wise) and go to town with it.

My favorite has been Nightscape Headbands. Even to this day, I will make them to take care of excess thick leather. At about 71s profit for 2 (10 leather total), they're decent vendor money. Buy stacks in the AH for less than 70s each and you're making a profit while raising your skill.

[playingtokrush]

Just to echo what's been said earlier, find a relatively cheap item to make (materials-wise) and go to town with it.

My favorite has been Nightscape Headbands.  Even to this day, I will make them to take care of excess thick leather.  At about 71s profit for 2 (10 leather total), they're decent vendor money.  Buy stacks in the AH for less than 70s each and you're making a profit while raising your skill.
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Don't those require two or so Silken Threads to make? Even with the discount that would tack on 9 or 18 silver (I don't remember if it's one or two) per two headbands, which means you're going to have to find some very cheap thick leather to be in the black on headbands. However, I wouldn't be surprised if you could sell them at the auction house for more than 35 silver, allowing you to turn a profit even after thread costs.

[Zarathustra]

Don't those require two or so Silken Threads to make?  Even with the discount that would tack on 9 or 18 silver (I don't remember if it's one or two) per two headbands, which means you're going to have to find some very cheap thick leather to be in the black on headbands.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if you could sell them at the auction house for more than 35 silver, allowing you to turn a profit even after thread costs.
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If honored with the vendor at which one is purchasing the thread, it's around 71s profit selling two of them to a vendor (assuming no cost for the leather); not talking revenue. They vendor for a little over 44s each. If you can get stacks of thick leather in the AH for 70s or less, you're in the black while getting one attempt at a skill-up per 5 leather.

I've come across stacks in the AH for 50s each and just went nuts buying them all out, then did a "Create All" while going afk for a bit. Easy money, and a quick announcement that they're for sale at 65s each will bring at least one or two customers.

[playingtokrush]

If honored with the vendor at which one is purchasing the thread, it's around 71s profit selling two of them to a vendor (assuming no cost for the leather); not talking revenue.  They vendor for a little over 44s each.  If you can get stacks of thick leather in the AH for 70s or less, you're in the black while getting one attempt at a skill-up per 5 leather.

I've come across stacks in the AH for 50s each and just went nuts buying them all out, then did a "Create All" while going afk for a bit.  Easy money, and a quick announcement that they're for sale at 65s each will bring at least one or two customers.
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Oh, okay. You'd already factored the thread cost into your profit value there. I didn't know they vendored for 44 silver. Anyway, that's useful information. Most of the other professions sometimes have something you can skill up on for marginal profit or at least without losing money.