Best Article on Iran Election Process I've seen

[eppie]

Good luck wanting that. Apperantly, you do not understand how tyranny works, do you?

Do you?

If the situation in Iran the last few weeks has told us anything it is that it isn't as worse as western media have always been trying to convince us it is.(which actually shows a lot of similarities with pre-war Iraq. Of course ahmedinijad is a nutcase dictator that should leave asap (just like Saddam), but Iran has much more hope of becoming a free and developed country than say Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan. Both countries had a relative good level of education, but because of movements inside (Islamic extremists) and outside (western pressure) the stupid were ruling and the smart were scared.

Waiting is difficult and we feel powerless but with some below the radar support Iran has much more chance of becoming free again then with the Cheney method.

[kandrathe]

If the situation in Iran the last few weeks has told us anything it is that it isn't as worse as western media have always been trying to convince us it is.(which actually shows a lot of similarities with pre-war Iraq.

Would that be the obvious electoral fraud, or the violent repression of the people when they protest against the unfair election?

Of course Ahmedinijad is a nut case dictator that should leave asap (just like Saddam), but Iran has much more hope of becoming a free and developed country than say Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan. Both countries had a relative good level of education, but because of movements inside (Islamic extremists) and outside (western pressure) the stupid were ruling and the smart were scared.

Um, let's say there is a European right wing extremist who supports genocide, funnels arms and money to similar extremists in the region, and who routinely violates the UN charter on human rights. You know, some one like Radovan Karadžić. Sometimes repressive (and even corrupt) government step aside enough to allow some privileges amongst the people (such as literacy, or health care). And, yes, what I say about Iran would just as well apply to China, Cuba, Saudi Arabia and many other authoritarian regimes.

Waiting is difficult and we feel powerless but with some below the radar support Iran has much more chance of becoming free again then with the Cheney method.

What is needed are brave people to tug at the strings which bind together brilliant systems which keep people complicit with their lack of freedom.

I don't understand the people who are calling for Iranians to stay safe, and remain complicit with their illegitimate government. These same pseudo-pacifists also live in free, prosperous nations, and would be the first ones protesting (even violently) in the streets any negative change to their trade union.

[eppie]

Would that be the obvious electoral fraud, or the violent repression of the people when they protest against the unfair election?

Of course electoral fraud happens (it happens in the US as well, (and if I remember correctly you and others were much more convinced about this than I was*)) So this is not what I mean. I meant that the consequences and violence during the protests and the repression was far less then what we are made to believe every day. The average european thinks that in Iran they daily kill thousands of enemies of the state, that everybody is at home being scared and Iran has 38 atomic bombs that are aimed at us.
The demonstrations show that a large part of the people in Iran are just like us. And not that (as we think) 99% of the people are potential terrorists. So my whole point is: yes let's help these people to overthrow Ahmedinijad, but let's do it slowly and do not make a second Iraq of Iran. The violent method will only mean that the people will start hating the west (especially, how strange, the britisch) and after 5 years you have a country were the extremists are in charge

Um, let's say there is a European right wing extremist who supports genocide, funnels arms and money to similar extremists in the region, and who routinely violates the UN charter on human rights. You know, some one like Radovan Karadžić. Sometimes repressive (and even corrupt) government step aside enough to allow some privileges amongst the people (such as literacy, or health care). And, yes, what I say about Iran would just as well apply to China, Cuba, Saudi Arabia and many other authoritarian regimes.What is needed are brave people to tug at the strings which bind together brilliant systems which keep people complicit with their lack of freedom.

Well, I don't really understand what you are trying to say here. But Saudi Arabia does fine, because they give us oil; do you drive a car? then you are partly responsible for abuse of women and chopping of hands. Of this is not much of a problems because they don't bother us too much (apart from giving us bin laden of course). China? Yes the sentence a lot more people to death than you do, probably even per capita, but again, they a great partners for trading. Cuba? Please give them a break....without any income from trade with western countries they still managed to run the best working society in the caribean/latin america.....we don't care about the people, we just don't like it the dictator is left wing instead of right wing.

Anyway, point is; I think we agree on the situations in these countries, I just don't agree with an armed intervention there.

I don't understand the people who are calling for Iranians to stay safe, and remain complicit with their illegitimate government. These same pseudo-pacifists also live in free, prosperous nations, and would be the first ones protesting (even violently) in the streets any negative change to their trade union.

I agree.




*disclaimer to refrain Occhi from replying that I am anti-american

[kandrathe]

I meant that the consequences and violence during the protests and the repression was far less then what we are made to believe every day. The average European thinks that in Iran they daily kill thousands of enemies of the state, that everybody is at home being scared and Iran has 38 atomic bombs that are aimed at us.

Oh. I never thought they killed thousands of their own people daily, just enough well publicized ones to keep certain populations in check. If they hang some people accused of being gay every so often, it at least keeps them in the closet and afraid to tell anyone the truth. The state apparatus is a constant presence that reminds people of the tyranny which leads them, and just as in Saddam's Iraq, they learned to cope with it. And, just as in Saddam's Iraq (or other authoritarian regimes), any expression of dissatisfaction with the regime is brutally crushed a threat to any future freedom seekers.

The demonstrations show that a large part of the people in Iran are just like us. And not that (as we think) 99% of the people are potential terrorists.

70 million covert Islamic terrorists would be pretty scary. But, even 1% of the population of extremists would make a sizable army let alone a huge insurgency force.

So my whole point is: yes let's help these people to overthrow Ahmedinijad, but let's do it slowly and do not make a second Iraq of Iran. The violent method will only mean that the people will start hating the west (especially, how strange, the British) and after 5 years you have a country were the extremists are in charge.

I assume you are talking about Ireland. :) Obama will never support any attack on Iran, unless Iran did something extremely provocative that left the US no choice. I don't buy the whole "hate the west" argument. They will hate the West for many (any) reason, including our overtly decadent lifestyles, our power, our lack of power, our religion, our support of Israel, our support of regimes in Saudi Arabia, or Egypt, etc. The bottom line is that I'm resolved to the fact that they will hate us, so we should just go ahead and ignore that problem and be who we are.

Well, I don't really understand what you are trying to say here. But Saudi Arabia does fine, because they give us oil;

Not really give... But, I understand what you are saying. We are strange bedfellows due to our addiction to their drug. Oil.

do you drive a car? then you are partly responsible for abuse of women and chopping of hands. Of this is not much of a problems because they don't bother us too much (apart from giving us bin laden of course).

Do you own a diamond? Anything made of gold? Steel? Electronics? Then you are probably helping some repression of someone somewhere. I'm not very convinced the whole supply chain of shame method of convicting consumers will work very well. Maybe we should just do the old fashioned method of convicting the brutes.

Cuba? Please give them a break....without any income from trade with western countries they still managed to run the best working society in the Caribbean/Latin America.....we don't care about the people, we just don't like it the dictator is left wing instead of right wing.

:lol: I see you still have your love affair with the Castro brothers.

Anyway, point is; I think we agree on the situations in these countries, I just don't agree with an armed intervention there.

Right. I want to reserve the US military for defending the USA, and possibly our allies when we can help out.

[--Pete]

Hi,

So my whole point is: yes let's help these people to overthrow Ahmedinijad, but let's do it slowly and do not make a second Iraq of Iran.

Yes. Unfortunately, more people understand Rambo than Machiavelli. And, to entirely too many, anything done without fanfare appears not to be done at all.

. . . the people will start hating the west . . .

Wrong tense.

--Pete

[Occhidiangela]

Lissa:

I have mulled over your response, and analysis. If what you suggest is what is going on, and it may well be, then I have to LOL:

Iran is, by being taken over by a militarist faction, turning into ... Iraq, late 1960's.

The more I think of it, the harder I laugh.

Hmmm, I wonder: will the Kurds and Azeris try to split off? I doubt it.

Occhi

[Lissa]

Lissa:

I have mulled over your response, and analysis. If what you suggest is what is going on, and it may well be, then I have to LOL:

Iran is, by being taken over by a militarist faction, turning into ... Iraq, late 1960's.

The more I think of it, the harder I laugh.

Hmmm, I wonder: will the Kurds and Azeris try to split off? I doubt it.

Occhi

Here's more fuel for it Occhi...

Yesterday the Clerics called the election illegitimate. It's coming to a head now, now we see if the Clerics win this or the Military does.

[Ashock]

*disclaimer to refrain Occhi from replying that I am anti-american

You are anti-American.

*disclaimer to point out that I am not Occhi.

[eppie]

You are anti-American.

*disclaimer to point out that I am not Occhi.

It is heart warming to see how you defend your new country. ;)

[Ashock]

It is heart warming to see how you defend your new country. ;)

New? Hardly. I've lived here for 30 years, which is 3/4 of my life. Besides, it deserves it....... still.

[--Pete]

Hi,

New? Hardly. I've lived here for 30 years, which is 3/4 of my life. Besides, it deserves it....... still.

57 years, 9/10 of my life, but otherwise in full agreement.

--Pete

[Occhidiangela]

For me, fifty years minus the eleven I spent living in foreign lands, and the years I spent deployed or at a war.

Yeah, I are at the half century mark as of a few weeks back. My curmudgeon qualifications are in progress.

Occhi

[Nastie_Bowie]

Clearly tyranny has always, 100% of the time been successful.

We cannot help them. Our "help" will only make it harder on them. It'll give the Iranian neocons an argument which is still too valid. <span style="color:#FFCC00">The hostage crisis occurred because they thought we were starting a coup to reinstate the Shah. It didn't matter that none of that was true, they remembered the 1953 coup.

If these people need help, it can't come from us.

I seem to remember the "Students" were pissed because Carter let Pahlavi go to New York to get cancer treatment. Nothing to do with starting a coup.

*shrug*

Amazing how history books are written, eh?

[Occhidiangela]

I seem to remember the "Students" were pissed because Carter let Pahlavi go to New York to get cancer treatment. Nothing to do with starting a coup.

*shrug*

Amazing how history books are written, eh?

I'd guess that "the clerics" and other operatives are each pursuing their own faction's position and interests, with the various students and other players, like the Basij, as useful tools. "The students" in 1979 were a bit more than that, eh?

Were the clerics unified, there'd be no signifncant problem. As they are not, but like wise men of all ages given to disagreeing with one another, it is difficult to see any outcome that changes life for the average Persian on the ground substantially.

Occhi

[kandrathe]

It is a lengthy discussion of how Rafsanjani is still a rival to Khameni, and this election was part of his attempt at rebalancing the power relationship that had slid toward Khameni's favor.

The drama in Iran continues, and I guess it will until there is a declaration of unity or the clerics take each other out. Ayatollah Rafsanjani still hasn't fully come out as declaring that the election was manipulated, or condemning the violence of the state against its own people. But, maybe he doesn't need to do so. His proxies can do that and it insulates him from dire consequences if the political winds blow against him.

[Occhidiangela]

The drama in Iran continues, and I guess it will until there is a declaration of unity or the clerics take each other out. Ayatollah Rafsanjani still hasn't fully come out as declaring that the election was manipulated, or condemning the violence of the state against its own people. But, maybe he doesn't need to do so. His proxies can do that and it insulates him from dire consequences if the political winds blow against him.

Khatami's latest utterance, that I picked up off the news sites today, seems to be that he's speaking publicly with the aim of telling a few of his rivals, like the Raf meister, that he ain't gonna back down.

That's my read, but I may be off on that one.

[Lissa]

Khatami's latest utterance, that I picked up off the news sites today, seems to be that he's speaking publicly with the aim of telling a few of his rivals, like the Raf meister, that he ain't gonna back down.

That's my read, but I may be off on that one.

Small nit, you mean Khameni, Khatami is a former president for Iran that is siding with Rafsanjani. It's heating up now, Rafsanjani has the ability to push to remove Khameni as supreme leader, but Khameni has the ear of the ICRG. Things heat up anymore and I forsee an Israeli airstrike(s)...

[kandrathe]

Things heat up anymore and I foresee an Israeli airstrike(s)...

That would be dumb. They'd be better off waiting for each side to spill more Iranian blood. Any move now by Europe, America, or Israel would shore up the position of hard liners and unite the country on the wrong side (as far as I'm concerned). Actually, the astute thing to do would be for America and Europe to call on Iran to act in accordance to the peaceful teachings of the prophet. Of course, not so overtly, but subtly here would be nice. A huge portion of the Iranian people want to have normal relations with the world, to be able to travel and have access to "western" products. They are tired of being isolated, so the most cunning thing we might do is to open up the possibility of elevating Iran up from the pariah status its suffered for two decades. Not that we'd make that journey easy, but it might be a way to shut down one of the largest refuges for Shiite terrorist training in the middle east. That still leaves the Wahabi's in northern Pakistan and Africa, but hey, it's progress.

[Lissa]

That would be dumb.

Yet, Israel does these kinds of things all the time and we consider them dumb. Most of the time, Israel would rather use sledgehammer than a scalpel to deal with their problems. Take for instance the two Israeli guards that were captured and killed in Lebannon a couple years back, instead of sending in special forces to deal with the situation, they launch a cross border incursion that only helped the people there were trying to remove. If Israel thinks that they are threatened, they'll do whatever they deem necessary, even if it makes things worse for them in the long run.

[Zenda]

If Israel thinks that they are threatened, they'll do whatever they deem necessary, even if it makes things worse for them in the long run.

Perhaps not just for themselves: http://www.cfciowa.org/K017/index.php?opti...l-news&Itemid=7