Trade Skill Question

[chippydip]

Description says it all. I remember that Allakhazam used to list some of the skill levels when each formula turned green and then gray, but they don't seem to list it there anymore and I haven't found another place that does.

Is there some other reference that still had this data?

Related Question: Anyone know what the formula is for a chance to skill up? Here's what I know:

Red: can't do it :(
Orange: always skill up
Yellow: almost always skill up -> medium chance to skill up
Green: medium chance -> no chance at all
Gray: no chance

I'm guessing that the Yellow/Green division is at about 50% chance and that there is some formula for chance to skill up at various skill levels between when a skill turns yellow and when it turns gray.

With the above two bits of information, it should be possible to figure out the chance to skill up on any recipe at any given skill level.

[savaughn]

Description says it all. I remember that Allakhazam used to list some of the skill levels when each formula turned green and then gray, but they don't seem to list it there anymore and I haven't found another place that does.

Is there some other reference that still had this data?

Related Question: Anyone know what the formula is for a chance to skill up? Here's what I know:

Red: can't do it :(
Orange: always skill up
Yellow: almost always skill up -> medium chance to skill up
Green: medium chance -> no chance at all
Gray: no chance

I'm guessing that the Yellow/Green division is at about 50% chance and that there is some formula for chance to skill up at various skill levels between when a skill turns yellow and when it turns gray.

With the above two bits of information, it should be possible to figure out the chance to skill up on any recipe at any given skill level.
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In general, orange = chance to skill up of 100%, yellow is 66%, and green is around 33%.

There's a catch. This doesn't hold true across the board. For some skills this works like clockwork. For some other stuff, the yellow can drift down into the 50% category and some green recipes will drift down into the 10% range. It's hard to really calculate variation from mean with such small data sets, though. I've had some cooking recipes that stayed in the 10% range through several hundred attempts, though, so while it's possible its a statistical anomoly, it could just be the recipe.

[Lissa]

In general, orange = chance to skill up of 100%, yellow is 66%, and green is around 33%.

There's a catch.  This doesn't hold true across the board.  For some skills this works like clockwork.  For some other stuff, the yellow can drift down into the 50% category and some green recipes will drift down into the 10% range.  It's hard to really calculate variation from mean with such small data sets, though.  I've had some cooking recipes that stayed in the 10% range through several hundred attempts, though, so while it's possible its a statistical anomoly, it could just be the recipe.
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Orange isn't 100% all the time. The closer you get to yellow, there are chances to fail, I have seen it occur once or twice. It's fairly rare for Orange to fail, but, there is a chance if you're at the cusp of the recipe going yellow.

From my observation, it doesn't follow at set percentage, it is a sloping scale. When the recipe first becomes availabe you get 100% (this is while orange) and then slopes downward to 0% at grey. As such, Orange you will see is something like 100% when initial and about 90 to 95% when just about to turn Yellow. Then just as the recipe turns Yellow it takes the previous Orange mark and continues to slope downward to around 50% just when the recipe is about to go Green. Once it hits Green it goes from about 50% and continues to slope toward 0% when it finally goes Grey.

[oldmandennis]

I think there is something else in play then straight percentages.

There are skill up guides which say "take this yellow recepie, make 30 of them and you will have gained 20 points".

I have tried one or 2 of those guides, and found that accurate. I wasn't being particularly scientific about it.

[savaughn]

From my observation, it doesn't follow at set percentage, it is a sloping scale.  When the recipe first becomes availabe you get 100% (this is while orange) and then slopes downward to 0% at grey.  As such, Orange you will see is something like 100% when initial and about 90 to 95% when just about to turn Yellow.  Then just as the recipe turns Yellow it takes the previous Orange mark and continues to slope downward to around 50% just when the recipe is about to go Green.  Once it hits Green it goes from about 50% and continues to slope toward 0% when it finally goes Grey.
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I think this is as bad a generalization as the hard 100/66/33 rule, actually. I think this is true of some recipes (as I noted earlier) but there are others that absolutely work like clockwork.

That said, in the, what ... 14? lvl 40+ chars I've made, I can't recall a single orange recipe not giving a point. I'm not a big enchanting fan, though, so it might be that there are enchanting recipes that miss as orange sometimes, so that may be the cause. Similarly, I can't say I've watched the collecting skills as closely as the crafting ones (and I suspect that they trend more towards the slope than the stair anyway).

Among other thing, fishing is just wacky in terms of skillups.

[chippydip]

I think there is something else in play then straight percentages.

There are skill up guides which say "take this yellow recepie, make 30 of them and you will have gained 20 points".

I have tried one or 2 of those guides, and found that accurate.  I wasn't being particularly scientific about it.
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This thread over in the bugs forum seems to indicate that at least some skills are not handled by random chance at all. Its certainly possible that some sort of "accumulator" like this is used elsewhere. If this is the case, though, they've done it in a non-obvious way. I know I've seen things like 3 or 4 casts to gain a skill up, followed by a single cast to gain a skill up when grinding some skills. A simple accumulator should never behave like that.

Its still possible, though, that the chance to skill up isn't random at all. It just occured to me that a very good way of making things appear random without actually being so would be to use a pseudo-random number generator and seed it with a specific value for each trade skill. If you then use this "random" generator to determine if a skill up occurs, you may get what looks like strings of bad luck and good, but the sequence would be exactly the same every time. Of course, this is easy to test if you just power level through a skill, reset, and try again.

Anyone know what the cheapest/easiest skill to powerlevel is?

[Lissa]

I think this is as bad a generalization as the hard 100/66/33 rule, actually.  I think this is true of some recipes (as I noted earlier) but there are others that absolutely work like clockwork.

That said, in the, what ... 14? lvl 40+ chars I've made, I can't recall a single orange recipe not giving a point.  I'm not a big enchanting fan, though, so it might be that there are enchanting recipes that miss as orange sometimes, so that may be the cause.  Similarly, I can't say I've watched the collecting skills as closely as the crafting ones (and I suspect that they trend more towards the slope than the stair anyway).

Realize that the PRNG is very fickle. You can get strings of successes with a low chance of success (seen a 5% chance proc 4 or 5 times in a row) or you can get a chain of many failures when you should see a success (seeing the same 5% chance of proc never proc in 200+ attempts). The point is, that Orange does not mean 100%, when you reach the yellow break mark, it's possible to see a failure (unlikely, but it happens), likewise it doesn't mean green near grey will be like 30 or 40 per point to get a skill up. This is the problem with random chances with something that doesn't play randomly. (PRNG stands for Pseduo Random Number Generator as this is how computers determine a random number, but, it's hardly random how it works).

Among other thing, fishing is just wacky in terms of skillups.
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after about 150 or 200 fishing (can't remember for sure) it's 8 fish caught per point of skill.

[chippydip]

after about 150 or 200 fishing (can't remember for sure) it's 8 fish caught per point of skill.
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I've never bothered with finishing long enough to get it this high, but this sounds like an oversimplification. Is it 1 point for every 8 fish caught every single time? No variation at all anymore? Does this depend at all on the area level you are fishing in, or could you happily skill up in the lake in Elwyn Forrest at 8 fish per point all the way to 300?

[Lissa]

I've never bothered with finishing long enough to get it this high, but this sounds like an oversimplification. Is it 1 point for every 8 fish caught every single time? No variation at all anymore? Does this depend at all on the area level you are fishing in, or could you happily skill up in the lake in Elwyn Forrest at 8 fish per point all the way to 300?
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I'm not sure if area plays an effect or not because I usually go to the highest area I can fish, but yes, I know for a fact that it's 8 fish caught per skill up once you get above 200 skill (and it's clock work, I could look back in my log, count the number of fish caught since the last skill up and confirm exactly when I would get the next skill up, but it also does appear to change to 9 fish caught per skill up at around 285 to 290 skill).

[Ruvanal]

I'm not sure if area plays an effect or not because I usually go to the highest area I can fish, but yes, I know for a fact that it's 8 fish caught per skill up once you get above 200 skill (and it's clock work, I could look back in my log, count the number of fish caught since the last skill up and confirm exactly when I would get the next skill up, but it also does appear to change to 9 fish caught per skill up at around 285 to 290 skill).
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It actually starts at a lower level than the 150-200 you listed. Starting somewhere around 50-75 you will start seeing that the skill-ups start taking 2 successful hooks per skill up and it fairly quickly will work up toward that 8-9 hooks needed per skill up that you are seeing at around the 285 to 290 fishing skill. I never bothered to look at where the break points are at for the different rates, but do recall it was something like 5 or 6 hooks per skill up when the fishing skill is near 225 (skill cap prior to completing the fishing quest).

[savaughn]

I'm not sure if area plays an effect or not because I usually go to the highest area I can fish, but yes, I know for a fact that it's 8 fish caught per skill up once you get above 200 skill (and it's clock work, I could look back in my log, count the number of fish caught since the last skill up and confirm exactly when I would get the next skill up, but it also does appear to change to 9 fish caught per skill up at around 285 to 290 skill).
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Fishing skill ups also depend on what you catch. If you're fishing in the higher level areas, everything is about the same level of catch for you, but this can be much more notable in other locations.

For example, one of my stops for skilling up fishing is in Menethil Bay. You may not be receiving any skill ups for the level 5 Rainbow Fin Albacores, but depending on your level you'll probably get a skill up for every lvl 15 Oily Blackmouth and lvl 25 Firefin Snapper.

Once you're consistently fishing lvl 45 items, it should work like clockwork, though. The only thing that will throw that off is if you catch lvl 55 stuff (raw whitescale salmon, plated armorfish). These are item level 55 which may change the accumulator value.