Can I get a quick rundown on Crimea?

[Taem]

Have not listened or read the news in the past month because I've been occupying all my time hiking, biking, and staying generally fit with friends and enjoying it immensely! So I've caught a few blips on the radio, and it's actually making me more confused.

What I think I heard: Ukraine started a civil war, Russia came to give the government a hand, USA told them no, Crimea... I have no idea how this fits into the equation, and now USA is putting sanctions on the rich in Russia for some reason I don't comprehend. Trying to read the news to get a quick synopsis, but just getting current news which doesn't make any sense without knowing the full story, and honestly, I don't feel like reading a thousand pages to find the answer, but I know some of you guys here know whats going on. So I humbly ask for a quick breakdown of current events, if anyone cares to oblige me?

[LavCat]

Half a league, half a league,
Half a league onward,
All in the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.
"Forward, the Light Brigade!
"Charge for the guns!" he said:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

"Forward, the Light Brigade!"
Was there a man dismay'd?
Not tho' the soldier knew
Someone had blunder'd:
Theirs not to make reply,
Theirs not to reason why,
Theirs but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon in front of them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
Boldly they rode and well,
Into the jaws of Death,
Into the mouth of Hell
Rode the six hundred.

Flash'd all their sabres bare,
Flash'd as they turn'd in air,
Sabring the gunners there,
Charging an army, while
All the world wonder'd:
Plunged in the battery-smoke
Right thro' the line they broke;
Cossack and Russian
Reel'd from the sabre stroke
Shatter'd and sunder'd.
Then they rode back, but not
Not the six hundred.

Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley'd and thunder'd;
Storm'd at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro' the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honor the charge they made,
Honor the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred.


"Since antiquity the peninsula has changed hands numerous times, with all or part having been controlled by Cimmerians, Bulgars, Greeks, Scythians, Romans, Goths, Huns, Khazars, Kievan Rus' (the historical precursor to the modern states of Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia[2]), the Byzantine Empire, Venice, Genoa, Kipchaks, the Golden Horde, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union, Germany, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation." -- wikipedia


Nothing new.



Edit: the current issue of Time magazine says Khrushchev may have been drunk when he gave Crimea to the Ukraine. Not that there is anything wrong with being drunk.

[Jester]

Insofar as I can tell, a regional struggle which has been going on since the beginnings of the independent Ukraine blew up. (And yes, this goes back at least to Khmelnytsky, if not back to the Kievan Rus'. But proximate causes first.)

The basic issue was integration - with the EU, or with Russia. The pro-western parties, from western Ukraine, supported the former, whereas the pro-Russia parties, from eastern Ukraine, supported the latter. The two were almost equally balanced in terms of electoral support. (To add another layer of entertainment, the pro-Western parties are also highly nationalistic, and have been actively suppressing minority rights, as well as supporting Ukraninan "national heroes" who were Nazi collaborators. Which is not popular in the East, to say the least.)

Viktor Yanukovych, the now-deposed president, was elected from the Eastern provinces. He had generally pursued a pro-Russian policy, but had been flirting with an association agreement with the EU, only to back out at the last minute under pressure from Putin. This triggered pro-Western rioting in Kyiv, and eventually, the overthrow of Yanukovych's presidency by the congress - even his own party turned on him. Under pressure from pro-Western protestors, the new government pushed forward quite a few nationalistic pieces of legislation, including the suppression of minority languages (although I believe that was eventually voted down.)

In response, protests broke out in Crimea against the new government. The region is highly pro-Russian, both in terms of language and ethnic mix, and political opinion - it was one of Yanukovych's strongholds, and his overthrow was seen as (I think) breaking the balance of power in favour of the Western areas, and against Crimea. As auxilliaries to these protests, combat-dressed but non-uniformed "volunteers" popped up in cities around Crimea. These are almost certainly Russian troops. As the situation has deteriorated, these troops have seized control over larger and larger portions of Crimea, which has now fallen under de facto Russian control.

The local Crimean government, under heavy Russian influence, then held a referendum on whether to join Russia. The legitimacy of this was very sketchy indeed, but the result was an overwhelming majority wanting to join Russia. (Many minority groups boycotted the vote, although it is unclear what effect this would have had in the largely pro-Russian Crimean electorate.)

Now, Russia is taking over. Panic ensues. The questions are, among others: Is Putin trying to take over all of Eastern Ukraine? Is he satisfied with Crimea? Is this just step one in taking back the Russian Empire? Will Ukraine start a war it will inevitably lose, gambling on NATO support? Will the West back Ukraine if this turns into a real hot war?

That's about what I understand about all this, anyway.

-Jester

[kandrathe]

Seems to me similar to the history of Texas, and it's revolution. Emigrants from Russia over time have formed a majority while it seems in more recent history to have been Crimean Tatar, Ukrainian, and Belorussian.

I guess I like to try to put myself into Russian shoes and consider what the US would do if their was a possibility of factional revolutionary violence in a part of Mexico (mequiladoras for example) where the preponderance of the inhabitants were US nationals. Like, Grenada... We intervened to "rescue" some US citizens attending a medical school.

I think Russia over reacted in their own self-interest. It tends to be what they do, and what we in the US do, because we can get away with it.

[Taem]

Thanks for helping me catch up to speed. One quick question, if Ukraine is not part of Nato yet, but only a candidate, then why is Obama so insistent upon Putin's noninterference in the matter? From my point of view, Ukraine is so close to the current Russia - not to mention it was once part of the USSR - that I'd expect Russia to react, same as we would if Mexico started a civil war in our backyard. This is the only thing I'm not understanding about this war so far, is our response to this issue. And if the USA is reacting to the threat of Russia taking over more land, where were we when China accumulated more land a few years back, and this more recent article I found when trying (unsuccessfully) to find info on China's land grab: Link

[Jester]

Thanks for helping me catch up to speed. One quick question, if Ukraine is not part of Nato yet, but only a candidate, then why is Obama so insistent upon Putin's noninterference in the matter?

There was an implicit (but certainly not explicit) guarantee of support given to Ukraine as part of the deal under which Ukraine gave up its nuclear arms. There were also a lot of nice-sounding, but not particularly specific, gestures made in terms of western support against Russia. None of that amounts to an actual defense treaty, but anyone who wants forceful action against Russia could use those things as an excuse.

Alternatively, they're just hoping Putin packs up and goes home without Crimea. But hot air only gets you so far.

This is the only thing I'm not understanding about this war so far, is our response to this issue.

You haven't done anything particularly forceful so far, nothing more than a few sanctions to pay lip service to the idea that countries shouldn't be invading one another. What's not to understand?

-Jester

[Taem]

What's not to understand?

I guess nothing . Like I've said, caught blips here and there and the news I've caught makes it sound like doom and gloom, but what else is new with our media sensationalism extraordinaire?

[Occhidiangela]

Jester mostly nailed it.

A further point: a lot of central and Western Ukraine was once part of Poland.
For centuries.
It goes back aways, but then the Serbs make a bit to-do about the the Battle of Kosovo in 1389 as part of their national identity ... a battle that they lost. History and group identity are powerful forces in human affairs. Do not underestimate them.

And another point to remember: Saladin was a Kurd.

[Mavfin]

Jester pretty much covered it. This is mostly mishandled leftovers from the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the disposition of the Black Sea Naval bases. Not sure that the US should even have a role in it, as long as it's mainly saber-rattling, and no one's killing civilians.

[kandrathe]

Jester pretty much covered it. This is mostly mishandled leftovers from the breakup of the Soviet Union, and the disposition of the Black Sea Naval bases. Not sure that the US should even have a role in it, as long as it's mainly saber-rattling, and no one's killing civilians.

I heard some interesting things on NPR tonight's discussion of Crimea... One was that in terms of timing Putin might be wagging the dog, to divert the subject from the massive non-repayable debts from the Sochi builds given mostly to Putin's friends. Ultimately, this is a Putin swagger meant to impress the domestic Russian nationals. "See, Russia is tough, and smart."

Second, for Ukraine, losing the welfare state of Crimea may not be such a bad thing. Almost all the native Russians (in Ukraine) live there, so shedding it gets rid of an ethnic problem politically for Ukraine. Crimea also depends on Ukraine for water and electricity. Not sure what Russia plans to do for infrastructure. The losers will be the Taters, even though the Russians have promised... I really doubt it.

Also, the deal between Russian and Ukraine for Russian use of Sevastopol was for Ukraine to get Ng from Gazprom at below market price. Now, they are jacking the price to above market prices, which will force Ukraine closer to Europe in the long run.

[eppie]

Second, for Ukraine, losing the welfare state of Crimea may not be such a bad thing. Almost all the native Russians (in Ukraine) live there, so shedding it gets rid of an ethnic problem politically for Ukraine. Crimea also depends on Ukraine for water and electricity. Not sure what Russia plans to do for infrastructure. The losers will be the Taters, even though the Russians have promised... I really doubt it.

Also, the deal between Russian and Ukraine for Russian use of Sevastopol was for Ukraine to get Ng from Gazprom at below market price. Now, they are jacking the price to above market prices, which will force Ukraine closer to Europe in the long run.

taters...hmmmm.

Soemthing that must be understood by us westeners is that Putin doesnot care too much about the economy. He and his friends are rich either way. It is Putin about power and respect. He wants to show Russia is still a world power.
Of course the west is not going to do anything. Who would want to risk his life for helping a country that is evenly divided between some ethnic groups. Should Crimea be Russian or Ukrainian finally isnt so important for most of us. We are not going to risk a world war for this and Putin knows this. So Putin wins power but loses economic increase. The thing the West wants to look out for is that Putin will not start stirring things up in other states such as the Baltics and that the minority groups in Crimea are treated equally and will not be harassed. So far this seems to be still OK.

[Occhidiangela]

eppie, some of what you say is true. Problem is, both Russia and the US signed up for security guarantees for Ukraine as part of the dissolution deal, and as part of the "get rid of the nukes" deal. That raises the political stakes for the US, and somewhat for the European allies of the US.

The newer members of NATO: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary ... they are watching with some alarm as the bear wakes up.

[eppie]

eppie, some of what you say is true. Problem is, both Russia and the US signed up for security guarantees for Ukraine as part of the dissolution deal, and as part of the "get rid of the nukes" deal. That raises the political stakes for the US, and somewhat for the European allies of the US.

The newer members of NATO: Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary ... they are watching with some alarm as the bear wakes up.

Correct, but it remains complicated. Russia says it fights for the interests of the ethnic Russians in Ukraine.
Further Ukraine is not part of the Nato, and as long as it is an internal conflict the Nato doesn't do anything anyway.

The NATO members you mentioned are indeed making noise, but this might also just be because of their hatred of Russia....and them being member of NATO should protect them.

I really hope for a peaceful solution, especially seeing the two peoples are not really so different from each other so there should be no reason why they can't live together peacefully. The west should just focus on protecting the rights of the minorities in Crimea (and the rest of Ukraine) so that Ukrainians and Tatars don't become second class citizens. Sadly the people in those areas historically are not to fond of minorities (blacks, gays, jews, Roma etc.).

[Lissa]

Second, for Ukraine, losing the welfare state of Crimea may not be such a bad thing. Almost all the native Russians (in Ukraine) live there, so shedding it gets rid of an ethnic problem politically for Ukraine. Crimea also depends on Ukraine for water and electricity. Not sure what Russia plans to do for infrastructure. The losers will be the Taters, even though the Russians have promised... I really doubt it.

Also, the deal between Russian and Ukraine for Russian use of Sevastopol was for Ukraine to get Ng from Gazprom at below market price. Now, they are jacking the price to above market prices, which will force Ukraine closer to Europe in the long run.

taters...hmmmm.

I know the Russians love their Vodka...

On a serious note, it's the Tartars that were the original ethnicity in Crimea before the Russians moved them to the central Caucauses

[Jester]

On a serious note, it's the Tartars that were the original ethnicity in Crimea before the Russians moved them to the central Caucauses

"Original" when? Crimea is just the same as the rest of Eastern Europe,* a nonstop pileup of highly mobile ethnic groups forcing one another westwards. Empires and armies have been moving the occupants of Crimea around for as long as there has been recorded history.

-Jester

*Not to suggest that the history of anywhere else is all that different.

[kandrathe]

*Not to suggest that the history of anywhere else is all that different.

I was just thinking that the other day when the whole #CancelColbert thing was flying around the Twitterverse. Not to down play racism or bigotry in anyway. It happened that the Brits, French, and Spanish came to the US first, squatted here, and systematically displaced the indigenous people in the America's. The Chinese (Asians) Colbert pseudo-mocked were a part of a 2nd wave (or third), who came to partake in what had already been plundered and swindled away from those who were here first. Like Crimea, or the Balkans, or Basque Spain, at some point you need to deal with the present, and do the best we can to atone/seek justice and forgiveness for historic crimes, ethnic cleansing, and holocaust. Of course, to play my own devil's advocate, I'm speaking from the voice of white male privilege. It's just... I don't speak Swedish, and I like it here. Please let me stay.