From the "Your gov't hard at work dept."

[kandrathe]

The US Centers for Disease control have new guidelines for the inevitable zombie apocalypse.



Social Media: Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse

[shoju]

I actually found this to be a very refreshing blog, and it conveyed ideas and planning in a way that is more eye catching, entertaining, and memorable than the standard fare.

I'm going to remember that article far more than any of the other CDC crap, and for that, I think it will be deemed a success.

[kandrathe]

I actually found this to be a very refreshing blog, and it conveyed ideas and planning in a way that is more eye catching, entertaining, and memorable than the standard fare.

I'm going to remember that article far more than any of the other CDC crap, and for that, I think it will be deemed a success.

Yeah, it's effective. It got me to look at it.

[shoju]

I have to say though, I firmly believe that Zombie movies have gotten one thing right. If there ever were a crazy "zombie virus" that worked the way they do in movies (quick acting, quick incubation, quick reanimation, etc...) we are SCREWED.

[Jester]

I have to say though, I firmly believe that Zombie movies have gotten one thing right. If there ever were a crazy "zombie virus" that worked the way they do in movies (quick acting, quick incubation, quick reanimation, etc...) we are SCREWED.

Only because the survivors will turn out to be dicks.

-Jester

[--Pete]

Hi,

... quick reanimation ...

Right. I just hate those slow reanimation viruses that leave you in the ground for millenia.

--Pete

[Kevin]

Hi,

... quick reanimation ...

Right. I just hate those slow reanimation viruses that leave you in the ground for millenia.

--Pete

But why? Animated skeletons are so cool!

[kandrathe]

Only because the survivors will turn out to be dicks.

I liked "I Am Legend", and I thought the dog did a superb job acting.

National Geog. -- Zombie virus possible via Rabies+Flu hybrid.

[DeeBye]

I liked "I Am Legend", and I thought the dog did a superb job acting.

I am happy to agree with you on this matter 100%. That dog ruled.

As for the zombie apocalypse, I have my kitchen knives and baseball bat inside my home. My chainsaw, axe, and shovel are out in the shed, but I think I have a good handle on zombie warning signs and I could probably get to them pretty quick. I have an easily-defensible basement with one staircase and just three small windows which I could board up in no time. I've also taught my son about zombies because I am a geek dad that loves zombie movies. He knows how to kill them, and how to avoid them.

[Taem]

I have to say though, I firmly believe that Zombie movies have gotten one thing right. If there ever were a crazy "zombie virus" that worked the way they do in movies (quick acting, quick incubation, quick reanimation, etc...) we are SCREWED.

What really scares me as a *plausible* reality is an Ebola virus mutated with an airborn virus in a lab as a biological weapon released on the public. However that might only lead to an 85% death rate. If an entity really wanted close to 95% eradication of an entire nation, then they could tease the Ebola virus into another strain, and mutate that with an airborn virus, and release these two (or even three) different viruses out at the same time. This would kill millions seemingly overnight, and billions within days, and *could* actually happen.

[ShadowHM]

What really scares me as a *plausible* reality is an Ebola virus mutated with an airborn virus in a lab as a biological weapon released on the public. However that might only lead to an 85% death rate. If an entity really wanted close to 95% eradication of an entire nation, then they could tease the Ebola virus into another strain, and mutate that with an airborn virus, and release these two (or even three) different viruses out at the same time. This would kill millions seemingly overnight, and billions within days, and *could* actually happen.

I have neither time nor energy to spend on being scared of such a scenario.

This may well be the same sort of attitude wherein people who live right downstream of massive dams minimize the danger of a dam burst. But the kind of coordinated effort to actually realize your scenario requires a lot of people to jointly and separately accept the risk that they, too, will be part of the 85%, because such events have no borders.

I have spent the time to make sure that I do have the sort of preparation advocated for the Zombie Apocalypse, though. The likelihood of (mostly) well-intentioned people taking (perfectly legal) shortcuts on poultry CAFO's* creating our next epidemic is high.

*CAFO = Concentrated Animal Feedlot Operations, the owners of which are currently advocating that any public or media surveillance of their operations should be severely curtailed, if not made illegal.

[kandrathe]

What really scares me as a *plausible* reality is an Ebola virus mutated with an airborn virus in a lab as a biological weapon released on the public. However that might only lead to an 85% death rate. If an entity really wanted close to 95% eradication of an entire nation, then they could tease the Ebola virus into another strain, and mutate that with an airborn virus, and release these two (or even three) different viruses out at the same time. This would kill millions seemingly overnight, and billions within days, and *could* actually happen.

You should check out the book, "Hot Zone". The problem with Ebola, and other outbreaks that are too contagious is that they burn themselves out before the infected can spread the disease. If you took an extremely hot virus, and released it into a large crowd, they might all die within days, and might perhaps have infected a 2nd generation before they too expired. But, if you extended the incubation period ...

A week to three weeks for an infectious period before the onset of lethal symptoms would be the optimal incubation period. Flu, and pneumonic plague are pretty perfect in that regard, but Ebola is too hot. In the Nat. Geog. article on Flu + Rabies that I linked to above, the second component is that the secondary symptoms be some way brain altering effect (encephalitis, meningo-myeloencephalitis), thus creating massive waves of crazed raving homicidal maniacs (zombies). My understanding of Ebola, and Marburg, are that they attack endothelial cells (like on the insides of arteries and veins), thus allowing our fluids to just leak through. For Ebola, a blood born pathogen, it spreads quickly to anyone who comes in contact with the blood of the victims. But, you'd be perfectly sane, until you bled to death internally.

[shoju]

Hi,

... quick reanimation ...

Right. I just hate those slow reanimation viruses that leave you in the ground for millenia.

--Pete

I have seen some pretty awful zombie movies where it takes... Days instead of minutes / hours for the zombies to change and come back. Those are always the worst.

[Alram]

For the mathematically minded amongst us.

MODELLING OF AN OUTBREAK OF ZOMBIE
INFECTION
Abstract
Zombies are a popular figure in pop culture/entertainment and they are usually portrayed as being brought about through an outbreak or epidemic. Consequently, we model a zombie attack, using biological assumptions based on popular zombie movies. We introduce a basic model for zombie infection, determine equilibria and their stability, and illustrate the outcome with numerical solutions. We then refine the
model to introduce a latent period of zombification, whereby humans are infected, but not infectious, before becoming undead. We then modify the model to include the effects of possible quarantine or a cure. Finally, we examine the impact of regular, impulsive reductions in the number of zombies and derive conditions under which eradication can occur. We show that only quick, aggressive attacks can stave off the doomsday scenario: the collapse of society as zombies overtake us all.

full article here
Honestly, I couldn't follow the math in this article, and I don't know if their conclusions are supported by their equations, but I found it interesting that people would treat the subject in a scholarly manner.

[--Pete]

Hi,

The problem with Ebola, and other outbreaks that are too contagious is that they burn themselves out before the infected can spread the disease.

Well, it's only a problem if you are trying to wipe out the human race.

The primary concern is percent lethality upon exposure. For Ebola and a few others, it's close to 100%

The second concern is the length of the period between becoming infectious and becoming symptomatic. That is what you are speaking of above -- that with some pathogens there is so little time between exposure, becoming infectious, and becoming symptomatic (and hence relatively immobile) that the contagion is self limiting. The bubonic plague is bad this way, since there is a fairly long period when one is infectious and still relatively symptom free (pretty much the symptoms of a cold for a day or so).

The third concern is the mean of transmission. STDs are almost the most benign, requiring intimate contact for transmission. These pathogens don't normally survive well or long outside the human body. Transmission by contact and aerosol (such as a sneeze or cough) are more of a problem but can be contained. But true air borne pathogens (needing no help from bodily fluids) are the true problem. Only extreme measures keep these under control -- micro filters help, but viruses are pretty darn small. Negative pressure helps, but just goes back to the filter problem (or one can pass the exhaust gases through baths of caustic or other materials).

The perfect weapon: a pathogen, preferably a virus, that has close to 100% fatality, that becomes infectious rapidly but has a long (few day) period before becoming symptomatic, that is air borne, that is cheap to produce, and for which there is a cheap and effective vaccine which only your side has. Indeed, a small group that could achieve this could, in effect, depopulate the world except for themselves.

Nuclear and chemical WMD are but pod-knockers compared to the real threat -- which is why bio-weapons research is so highly banned (and, I suspect, so avidly pursued in secret by all governments).

--Pete

[Tal]

If you're interested in a sf novel with plausible Zombie virus - check out Feed by Mira Grant.