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[BanditAngel]

France and England are your two most important diplomatic contacts right now, with a collapse of Germany and a virtual collapse of Austria on the horizon.  You want them to go to war, England on Russia, France on Italy.  Again, with Austria's timer ticking, you have to move fast, because Russia/Italy is one of the strongest alliances on the board, and after Austria, their natural target is...you.

Thanks for the advice. I've been wondering what I should be doing about the rest of the board. Russia tried to negotiate with me for Rumania, so I'm worried that this alliance might not be quite as stable as I thought it was - they suggested I focus on Greece instead. Fortunantly they seem to want me to aid in taking Germany more than they want Rumania.

[Rhydderch Hael]

Thanks for the advice. I've been wondering what I should be doing about the rest of the board. Russia tried to negotiate with me for Rumania, so I'm worried that this alliance might not be quite as stable as I thought it was - they suggested I focus on Greece instead. Fortunantly they seem to want me to aid in taking Germany more than they want Rumania.

There's a reason that Russia wants you to look at Greece: you can't get Greece with what you've got now, and the only way you can contend for it is to make your next build order for a Fleet in Symrna. In other words, forces you to build a pro-Russian strategy.

I've never been a big fan of the "friendly neighbor" camp in overall strategy. Maybe its a taint from my current play as England (where a war with France is as inevitable as the tides), but I like my friends standing on the other side of the frontier, and never sitting right on my borders.

[BanditAngel]

Actually with the current situation Greece is mine for the taking if I want it - Bulgaria can take it with ease. Austria is busy fighting off the Italians and the Italians aren't focusing on Greece just yet. Still, I agree with your point about a focus on Greece being mostly a pro-Russian move.

[Skandranon]

At the same time, keep in mind that the Serbia-Greece-Ionian Sea barrier traps and frustrates a lot of Turkey players. Take Rum, but you might want to take advantage of Russia and pick up some Balkan centres while Austria and Italy are trying to scratch each other's eyes out.

And Greece isn't as easily yours as you might think. Austria's best move is to support himself to Greece at this point. Even if you're sure he doesn't see it, Rumania is and remains your best move. The fact that Russia's willing to let you have it right now (when he might not be willing later) just emphasizes how critical the move is at this stage.

[Rhydderch Hael]

I'll admit, strategy is not my great strength, but tactics are. And from a tactical standpoint (one made in the here and now), Austria needs not "fight off" Italy with all his forces.

If your Austrian is up to snuff, he will realize that no matter what he does, he will lose a Home center in Fall 1901. The key then is for him to preserve as best as he can, while still trying to make gains (Greece).

He's going to lose either Vienna, Trieste, or Budapest. There's no way around it. The only thing the Austrian can do now is prevent Italy from taking two of those Home centers instead of one: the Italian, if aggressive enough, will drive his army in Trieste into another Home center and try to get the army currently in Venice in on Trieste. But since those two Italian armies cannot support each other in an attack, the Austrian can close the attack with just the one army in Budapest.

The Italian, if aggressive enough, will order A Venice --> Trieste and A Trieste --> Vienna, or if he's really crafty, --> Budapest if he thinks the Austrian is going to move A Budapest --> Vienna to save the Austrian capital from an obvious Italian attack.

But all the Austrian has to do is order A Budapest --> Trieste, and he's saved at least two of his Home Centers (Budapest and one other). If the Italian doesn't move into Vienna, then the invasion stops there. But if the Italian tried to drive forward with the plan I described above, the Italian army would take Vienna, but be bounced out of Trieste by the Austrian attack from Budapest! Austria can't save both Vienna and Trieste, but he can surely save one of them, and he needs only one unit to do that job...

...leaving his two other units to take Greece.




On another note, in your game, BanditAngel, I can virtually read the English player's mind as to what he's going to do next! F Norwegian Sea --> Norway, A York gets convoyed via F North Sea to either Holland or Belgium (depending on who he wants to surprise, but given what you've said about the alliances, it's going to Holland). England can take Norway with the fleet, and use convoyed army (or just the North Sea fleet itself) in order to attempt a lazy bounce (lazy, if Germany tries taking Holland without support) to keep Germany at only 1 Build for the next round.

If England had moved his army to Edinburgh, then at least there would be some ambiguity. But in York, the fleet in the Norwegian Sea has nothing to do but either sit tight, take Norway, or try to scare Russia (and that's not likely, given what you've said).

[BanditAngel]

The insights on what England is up to is interesting, and we'll see how right you where once this turn finishes up :) England recently suggested that I join them and France in crushing Italy and Russia after Germany and Austria fall (it was clear from the start to everyone that if Germany fell, Austria was going down too). It seems to me that the French and English combined would fairly easily mop me up, but at the same time all I'd really need to do is sit back and conquer territory as Russia and Italy leave themselves undefended.

I think I agree on Greece being a gamble at best, but I'm currently in negotiations with Austria, so I'll see what comes from that. If I could get Greece and Rumania, that would give me a nice edge, but I doubt Austrian is going to see things my way. Russia is trying to emphasize that Greece is all mine a bit too much for my liking though. Either he's been talking a lot with Austria, or he's trying to get me to waste resources on this so he can crush me easier. Makes me nervous.

It's definently nice having someone to talk to about this situation - This being my first game, I'm still having a bit of trouble seeing how everyone is thinking tactics-wise. I was never terribly great at predicting opponents.

[Skandranon]

Aha, the classic Anglo-French alliance.

Well, so far as England is offering, smile and accept. (Of course, react that way to just about any offer which doesn't require immediate action.) If, when Germany goes down and they do go for Russia and Italy, respectively, demand whichever you haven't got out of Greece, Serbia, Trieste, and Budapest as your price and then support Italy in the Med (and support Russia in the north). Most people still don't seem to understand that there is no "second place" in Diplomacy - England and France might be planning to ride their alliance all the way.

That's not entirely likely, though. I suspect the arrangement is a precursor to the classic vicious English stab on France, or the other way around, depending on who's running the show over there. There are a whole host of nasty things that they can do to each other. In which case England or France would let the other commit before swinging around the other way. Your reaction in such a case would be the same as if they were actually attacking - demand centres for your support - but when they drew knives on each other, you'd just keep going. By the time Italy and Russia realized that they weren't being attacked, you'd be bigger than both of them combined.

Russia and pointing you at Greece - when someone urges you to do something so strongly when a clearly superior alternative is available, you know you don't want to do it. He probably wants Rum for a build since he sees pretty clearly he's not getting another build this season. Just take it. As much of an edge as Greece would give you, Rum gives you a much bigger one.

[BanditAngel]

Negotiations went badly. Me, Russia and Austria where trying to decide how to deal with Rumania and Greece, and we where still in negotitions when turns rolled around. Or rather, I knew I'd be gone so I submitted some early turns - Take Greece AND Rumania and hope that at least one of them doesn't bounce, and act insanely polite if neither bounces.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~cbattey/diplomacy/

Oops.

Turns got processed early too - I had just sent a letter to Russia and Austria trying to explain what was going on when the person doing turns told me that they'd been done. And here I was thinking the day couldn't get much worse :\ Oh well, I DO have an advantage over both of them, but I think I might have just worked myself in to an early grave. France picked up three builds, as you can see, which makes them look like the biggest threat IF I survive Russia and Austria.

So, other than advice about not trying to over-extend myself... what do I do to dig myself out of THIS hole? :\

[Rhydderch Hael]

Initial indications from the war front in the Kingdom of Make-Believe (my game)

Germany got hammered, Italy played only minimal support to the Italian-Austrian alliance (used F Aegean to support an Austrian drive on Bulgaria whilst Turkey really mucked up his own defenses. Moscow is the last bastion of Imperial Russia, and she's safe for the moment)

And Austria? I can't fault the guy, but he kind of sold me out in order to get a jab at Germany :o . Not that I'm complaining much—Germany's bleeding. But dang, it did not come up all roses for me...

Turkey (5 Supply Centers, 4 Units)
A Bul supports A Rum (biggest...goof...ever...) Unclear order, but presumed support Hold of enemy unit
A Ste --> Rum
A Con --> Smyrna
F Bla --> Con
A Bul disbanded, no possible retreat.
1 Build

Italy (4 Supply Centers, 4 Units)
F IoS holds
A Ven holds
A Apu supports A Ven hold.
F AeS supports A Rum -–> Bulgaria
No builds

France (6 Supply Centers, 6 Units)
F Bre --> Eng
F MAt support F Bre --> Eng
A Par ---> Bre
No builds

Germany (4 Supply Centers, 5 Units)
F Den --> NtS
A Mun --> Kie
A Hol support A Mun --> Kie
F Liv --> StP
A War support A Mos
F Den dislodged. Retreat routes: Ska, Bal
No builds. 1 disband to be tendered.

Austria (7 Supply Centers, 5 Units)
A Rum --> Bul
A Ser supports A Rum --> Bul
F Gre supports A Rum --> Bul
A Tyo --> Mun
A Bud --> Gal
2 builds.

Jolly Ol' England (7 Supply Centers, 6 Units)
F NtA --> MAt
F Eng holds
F NtS --> Den
A Swe supports F NtS --> Den
F Nor --> StP (North Coast)
F Hel --> Kie
1 build.

Russia (1 Supply Centers, 2 Units)
-Civil Disorder-
Unit in the Gulf of Bothnia Disbanded. (Farthest from home.)
------------------------------------------------------------------

Okay, I know what happened on the English front. Austria got under Germany's skin. Told him of impending doom from the north. The attack on Kiel was supposed to be a surprise—I didn't even mention it to Austria lest it be betrayed as some sort of bargaining chip. At worst I was expecting was a Hel --> Kie, Mun --> Kie bounce that kept the German out of sorts to re-take Denmark. But the German fellow supported a Munich drive into Kiel—which Austria happily exploited with an unsupported stab at the vacated Munich!

I make no quarrel with Austria for scaring the German north and denying me Kiel (and possibly Denmark, if Fortune smiles on Germany). It was a fair and equal play for power, and the Austrian gave the more convincing case to Germany (though the balance of negotiation may swing my way next turn.)

Tactically, it was a balls up for the German. A Hol --> Kie, Mun --> Kie, Hel --> Kie bounce would have preserved Munich for the German as well as ensured Kiel's safety. But nooooooo. Mr. German has to play it like a panicked child who thinks possession is the sole defense in the game (and never even heard of the self-bounce, though it has been demonstrated against him time and time again!).

The French predictably, yet lamentedly, tried to take the English Channel too hastily. My defensive measures worked as expected (though if the French had decided to attack with the Mid-Atlantic fleet instead of the Brest unit, I could have effected retreat to the Irish Sea, build an Army in Liverpool, convoy said army to Portugal while I sought to protect London with my other units. Bye-bye, France. As such, I am going to have to maintain my defense with only 1 build instead of the 2 that I was truly playing for. Two builds would have simplified my strategy immensely, but alas, do we truly enjoy what is attained through ease?

It will be difficult to gauge what the German disband will be. Drop A Holland and rely on the French to stay within the west side of Flanders? Drop F Livonia and abandon the apparently futile St. Petersburg snag? Or will the dislodged F Denmark take the fall? :unsure:

And Italy... <_< Obviously the guy's distrust of Austria still drives the man. Cannot truly blame him, though, as Austria has demonstrated against two other nations his capacity to strike hard and with cunning. Still, an Italian play on Smyrna would have bottled the Turk in the Black Sea.

[Skandranon]

I submitted some early turns - Take Greece AND Rumania and hope that at least one of them doesn't bounce, and act insanely polite if neither bounces.

Heh. Aesop has a tale about a dog, a bone, and a reflection...oh, wait, OTHER than things about overextending yourself?

Whip up a panic about France. Point out that France and England are going to eat up the board once Germany goes down and Russia's next on the list. Cede Rumania - you don't really have another diplomatic position to take. When Germany inevitably folds, Russia will have other things to worry about, which should leave you with a free hand in the Balkans. Sooner or later, England will go for the Nwy-StP(nc) play (negotiate and make that sooner rather than later). When Russia howls in outrage, pleasantly point out that you won't bother him and that you'll just work on Austria while Russia handles the English menace. Depending on the situation you may then want to stick to it or stab him.

Agree with Italy on how to cut up Austria. Point to the French F Mar, which is the most unambiguously anti-Italian build France can make, and stress that you need to finish off Austria fast before France gets a foothold in the Med. You want Russia and Italy facing away from you, and there are enough convincing reasons for them to accept. You may have to join in a three-nation alliance if England and France continue on their path of not stabbing each other.

Talk nice to Austria, smile and nod politely, but this really isn't his game. A strong Austria needs a strong Germany. In only a bare tiny fraction (0.2%, about) of games does Austria survive if Germany goes out early. Always be cordial, in case major tactical mistakes give Austria renewed life, but you need his centres to survive, and he knows it.

[Skandranon]

Well, you're fine. You got Den and stopped the French, which means you're safe more or less as long as you want to be. The Mun stab was a brilliant move by Austria, and I have to admit, a great reading of Germany. He correctly surmised that Germany would respond to a possible F Hel-Kie with a supported drive back into Kiel, and took advantage of it.

Germany resembles a child. Blindly lashing out in whatever direction concerns him, with seemingly random amounts of force. Anyway, he's going to go down hard, and hopefully he sees that. Which means, of course, that it's time to deal. I'd offer help in exchange for a disband of F Lvn. If he doesn't want to deal, that's all right. Hold the fort against France and Germany and eventually ONE of them will see the light - neither can make any progress against you, since you can lock up the seas with three fleets, and Germany's forces are incredibly depleted.

France and Italy both seem not to understand the fundamental rule that a hold is the worst order to issue. If Italy had done F IOS-EMS he'd have a build. He seems interested only in not losing, and France only seems to order half his units each season.

Turkey-oops. And Austria is displaying considerably more tactical acumen than I had previously seen. Keep your eye on this one.

[Rhydderch Hael]

...Germany resembles a child.&nbsp; Blindly lashing out in whatever direction concerns him, with seemingly random amounts of force.&nbsp; Anyway, he's going to go down hard, and hopefully he sees that.&nbsp; Which means, of course, that it's time to deal.&nbsp; I'd offer help in exchange for a disband of F Lvn.&nbsp; ...

Unfortunately, the German's retreat decision was most...unwise. The German disbanded Livonia and retreated the Denmark fleet into the Skagerrak.

If he had retreated to the Baltic, I would have easily tabled a deal with Germany on the promise of British army support of a German play on Moscow, a trade of St. Petersburg for Holland in a war against France, and non-aggression so he could (with that tottering Turkish player's allying himself to Germany) take out my biggest rival now: Austria. Thus, closing the German front, I could pay attention to the still-strong but noncommital French.

But the Skag...it skunks the deal. Only way I can tender this alliance would be to first smash the remaining German fleet, then proceed with the deal. Once Germany's capacity the threaten Scandinavia is gone (by the loss of naval power), the deal can go forth. The problem is how to try and strike up a deal right after tearing that last Fleet to shreds.

[Skandranon]

But the Skag...it skunks the deal. Only way I can tender this alliance would be to first smash the remaining German fleet, then proceed with the deal. Once Germany's capacity the threaten Scandinavia is gone (by the loss of naval power), the deal can go forth. The problem is how to try and strike up a deal right after tearing that last Fleet to shreds.

Well, with a more reasonable player I'd point out that I had a stranglehold on Scandinavia, and that one little fleet wasn't going to do anything, and that Germany REALLY needs another army right now, leading to an arranged annihilation of the fleet. Of course, this Germany will probably react "Destroy MY unit? No! Diediedie, &c".

You could do it for him. F Hel-NTS, F Nwy-SKA, F Den S F Nwy-SKA, A Swe S F Den would destroy it given any move other than A Kie-Den, which I doubt he'll do with the Austrian in Munich. Then, I suppose you could point out to him after the fact that he needs another army to stop Austria.

And this looks to be one of the tiny minority of games where Austria does well without a Germany. A lethargic Italy, incompetent Turkey, and Russia in civil.

[BanditAngel]

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~cbattey/diplomacy/ Has been updated with the latest moves.
A Bul-Ser & A Gre S A Bul-Ser occured to me, but I'm not sure if it would be wise to attack Austria quite so early. If I don't go with that it seems like A Gre-Alb & F Aeg-Gre to get in to position for striking Italy.

France made a bad retreat and lost an army, which makes me feel a lot better. 5 armies I can deal with, but 6 was just dominating that region far too much for my comfort. Of course he's just going to build it back in Fall I expect, but by then the rest of us will be a bit bigger, and so he wouln't have a huge advantage.

Still not sure about the long-term game. Joining the France-English alliance seems like the smart move, since I've heard from you guys that Russia-Turkey heavily favors Russia. That's not a decision I need to make for a while, however. I'm also worried that the France-English alliance is basically planning on playing to a tie between the two, after crushing me. The person who runs the game says that they often end with a tie, so I wouldn't be too suprised to see people playing towards one this game.

[Skandranon]

Standard Russia-Turkey advice is predicated on the assumption that all players on the board are competitive - i.e., no one's playing for a tie. Alliance players are a blight upon Diplomacy, but something with which we must all live. Whenever introducing the game, I often like to point out that a "tie" is in no way better than a loss: a "tie" means that everyone loses, and playing for a tie means that you're just the largest player that didn't win.

Not everyone sees it that way, of course. Which means that often, other players may have to respond to alliance play with their own. Then you're in a bad position, of course, since if Russia and Italy finish off Austria fast enough, they can do for you and still turn to meet the oncoming Anglo-French horde.

You have two options.

1) Stab Russia. This turn. A Gre-Bul, F AEG-Gre, A Bul-Sev, F BLA C A Bul-Sev. Not a good idea. The chances that you'll come to an agreement with Italy are small. And Russia will likely pull back from the north to defend, kicking the door wide open for jolly old England. If Austria was more competent and England and France weren't solidly allied, I'd recommend this, but I can't with the situation as is.

2) Attack Italy and ally yourself firmly with Russia until the first cracks appear in the England-France alliance. If they never appear, so be it. If England and France are planning on allying until the end of the game, you have a lot more to worry about than Russia getting the better of your alliance.

This turn, sit tight. You could take Ser this turn, but you want to wait, because you can take Ser just as easily on your next turn, and leaving Ser untaken this turn prevents Italy from taking Tri (unless Austria misorders his defence) and slows his tempo. There's one case where Italy gets Tri anyway, which is where Italy goes in with two supports and Russia hits Bud, cutting one. You'll have to assess the probability of that occurring on your own; if it's likely Italy gets Tri anyway, then take Ser.

Assuming Italy doesn't get Tri right away, next turn, support yourself into Serbia. Ten to one that Ionian fleet is going into the Adriatic, and that guarantees Tri even if you don't touch Ser. So this turn, support yourself in place, shuffle a bit and seem nonthreatening. Going around Ser is going to accomplish nothing more than waving a giant "I'M ALLIED WITH AUSTRIA" flag that you don't need waved. Seriously, what does A Gre-Alb, F AEG-Gre get you? You don't gain another support on Serbia, you don't gain a support into the Ionian....

At this point tactics take a backseat. It's the reason why this game isn't called chess on a Europe board. You need to make yourself look like a better choice than Italy as an ally. Driving in a straight line toward Italy does that. Appearing allied with Austria doesn't, because Russia wants Budapest. There's no way you'll reach an accommodation with Italy after Austria's dead: he has fleets, you have fleets and they aren't going to coexist peacefully in the Med. Russia's also a better option because you can convince him to invest more heavily in the north: prod him to build F StP(nc) and go after Norway before England gets too big. It's also imperative to convince Russia that having you on his south flank is better than having a large, hungry and competent Italy.

If your diplomacy's good enough, you have a third option: sit on your five or six centres and make it clear that whoever attacks you first earns your eternal wrath, and that you'll ally with the other one to wipe whoever it was who attacked you from the earth. You have to be pretty confident to do this, though, because there's a possibility that they decide to attack you together and you have to be sure that they aren't thinking that way.

[Baylan]

Hello, after reading this thread I became somewhat interested in Diplomacy. I started looking up a few things on google until low and behold, I came across the instruction manual. So before I take a big jump into the land of Diplomacy I was wondering what do you suggest for the (extremely) new player? Soak up as much as possible, reading topics like this and then play - or perhaps the play as much as possible approach?

Also, what do the (nc) and the (sc) after certain moves mean?

Thanks for your time, and good luck in your games!

[Skandranon]

Hello, after reading this thread I became somewhat interested in Diplomacy. I started looking up a few things on google until low and behold, I came across the instruction manual. So before I take a big jump into the land of Diplomacy I was wondering what do you suggest for the (extremely) new player? Soak up as much as possible, reading topics like this and then play - or perhaps the play as much as possible approach?

Absolutely get into some games and start playing. Nothing teaches like experience. My advice is to get into some games and start losing. Not on purpose, but you probably will :) Everyone loses a lot starting out. I had an appalling record for my first thirty or so games. I lost them all (that's not uncommon, wins are rare) but eighteen or nineteen were eliminations, which aren't that common either.

One of the best things to do is to keep your diplomatic correspondence, in e-mail games. You can learn a lot by reading what you said and what they said. Hindsight is 20/20, and keeping correspondence can help you learn what to say and learn when people are probably lying to you.

There's a fairly small list of newbie mistakes that everyone can describe, but no one notices the flaws in their own game until they've suffered from their mistakes. Two of the most important are not stabbing enough, and stabbing too much, and you really don't know what's too much until you've done too much, and you can't really describe what's not enough until it's happened to you. It's all experience. The more and the sooner, the better :)

A good place to check for an e-mail game is www.diplom.org - click e-mail Diplomacy and it'll get you started right away.

The (nc) and (sc) notations refer to the north and south coasts. Three provinces have coasts: St. Petersburg, Spain, and Bulgaria (Bulgaria has east and south coasts). They're to prevent illogical fleet moves. For example, St.Petersburg borders the Barents Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia, but you can't order F BAR-StP, then F StP-GoB, since that would imply that the ships somehow made it over land from the north to the south. Likewise, a fleet in Norway can only go to the north coast of St.Petersburg; even though Norway borders StP, to be able to order it to the south coast would involve having the fleet sail through all of Scandinavia.

So whenever ordering a fleet to any one of those three provinces, the order specifies the coast with the notation (nc) (sc) or (ec) depending. Since most of the time you can only reach one coast at a time - only two moves offer a choice of coast: MAO-Spa, and Con-Bul - many judges accept orders like F Nwy-StP since they reason that the player wouldn't be ordering to the south coast. Don't count on it, though. Electronic judges are particularly finicky about coast specification.

[BanditAngel]

Well, Russia just said it wants to hit Budapest while I take Serbia, so I think my course of action is pretty much settled. My thoughts with moving in to Albania was to prevent Austria from retreating to there (it didn't occur to me that a coordinated attack was going to take out all three supply centers, thus finishing them off). It would have also been a bit better of an anti-Italian position, but I'm not going to do that when Russia wants me to hit Austria.

As for being a new player: I'm learning a *lot* just by playing, and none of this discussion made sense until a couple of turns ago, just because I'd never really played and understood any of the strategic thinking involved. Not to mention that the only way to get better at the diplomacy aspect is practice :) The only advice I can offer is not to overextend yourself, since I already did that once and it hurt. Also, be careful with your wording. A crafty player will pervert your wording and try and use it agains't you - I lost Rumania because I didn't know either of those :)

Anyways, it seems like A Gre-Ser, F Aeg-Gre, A Bul S A Gre-Ser is my best bet, but I don't know. I could attack from Bul instead, but I'm feeling paranoid about leaving myself open to a Russian backstab with a move like that. Still, attacking from Bul would be a better position to take out the Italians, and attacking from Greece tells Russia that I'm not feeling very trusting. Should I worry about Russia?

[Skandranon]

Albania really isn't a better anti-Italian position. Really. Closer to Italy doesn't mean better. Especially because Italy could then run F IOS-EMS unopposed, ordering F Tun to IOS and setting up a convoy to Syria or Smyrna (which is basically forcing you to make a 50-50 guess each turn or get eliminated early. Plus, not taking Ser would give you only one build to counter that. Taking Ser gives you two builds, which allows you to basically counter any heartland stab since you can build the counter on the spot.

Attack from Bul. I really don't see what kind of Russian backstab could hurt you. A Gal-Rum, F Rum-Bul(ec)? Even if it succeeded, you'd just build in Con and kick him out next turn (all five of your units would be on Bul, he couldn't possibly keep it). And he'd be giving up Bud to take Bul, which means he doesn't even get an extra centre out of the deal. Still, if you're concerned about it, there's no harm in ordering F BLA-Bul(ec), F AEG-Bul(sc), which stands off any attempt on Bulgaria while keeping your fleets in good positions.

Of course, a really devious Italian move would be F IOS-Gre, cutting your support while getting the benefit of your attack to take Tri and Bud (but not letting you have Ser). That's one of those things you'll have to hope doesn't happen, though: if you attack from Gre, an Italian F IOS-Gre will stand off F AEG-Gre and you'll end up with one build either way. Attacking from Bul is your best chance for two builds.

Attacking from Bul also sends a good message to Russia. Should you worry about Russia? I'd have to say no. Not because there isn't a chance that Russia won't ally with Italy and kill you - there is a chance that he'll do that. It's because if Russia allies with Italy and kills you, you're dead. You can't even rely on England and France advancing in time to save you, especially with England's glacially slow offense and the way France is shooting himself in the foot repeatedly (that fleet in Bel will haunt him for a while). My point is, there's really no use contemplating no-win scenarios; Italy and Russia could break off their attack on Austria and go full force against you next turn, but there's really no point in anticipating and ordering a counter on that basis - first, it's unlikely, second, if it happens you're dead anyway. You can't ally with Italy at this point. There are a myriad number of reasons why. I've already mentioned the fleets, but even assuming you agree to hold them all, any land offensive involves him getting Bud and you getting Rum. Past that, Italy is overextended (War is too far with you still in the game) and so he'll switch sides and go right back at you. At worst, you need Russia to say "You two fight it out over the Balkans, I'm going north." At best, he orders his remaining two units to actively assist you against Italy (and probably asks for Vie).

Allying with Russia favours him, but unfortunately for you it's the only game in town. And you'd better take it before Italy does.

[BanditAngel]

I see your point about Albania, thanks for explaining. I wasn't even thinking about F IOS-EMS.

Looks like I'll be moving in from Bul. I think having my fleets standoff agains't Bul would send a bad sign to Russia, since he's the only one that could possibly attack, so I don't think I'll do that. As you said, if he and Italy decide to backstab me, I'm dead, so no use worrying over it.