May News/Discussions

[Taelas]

Hi,

Frankly, I have no stake in this discussion, being a complete newbie in WoW. However, when I see an example of mathematics being tortured, I must speak out. Lets start with:

<_<Tortured?

If complex tasks are not an issue, then why bring up complex tasks at all?

I didn't say it wasn't an issue. I said it wouldn't be done for 25 people at once.

But to go one step further, the complexity of a task is only slightly related to the probability of success. Simple example; dancing a waltz is more complicated than walking a tightrope, yet the probability of failure in the population at large and with equal amounts of instruction is very likely greater for the tightrope.

It is still related.

And I wouldn't immediately agree that the chance of success is greater with the waltz than the tightrope with equal amounts of instruction.

Let's say five people have the same task. They each have a 20% chance of completing it. The chance for overall success (i.e., the task getting completed at least once) is 1-(1-.2)^5 ~ 67.23%.

25 people increase this to 1-(1-.2)^25 ~ 99.62%.

OK, these results are just as meaningless as yours.

:huh:

This has literally nothing to do with what I was talking about. I specifically said they had different tasks. Obviously it will not apply when they have the same task... though I have never heard about any encounter where different raid members are working to achieve a goal and only one has to succeed -- except for healing and to a lesser extent, dealing damage. This is not a problem when considering the shift between 10 and 25-man raids, as it's solved simply by scaling down the healing and damage required.

Together they represent some kind of boundaries between the cases of everyone having the same task and each person having a different task. Just where raids fall on that continuum is not clear to me, and probably wouldn't be if I'd done four raids a day since beta. And of course, the numbers for probability of success have been plucked out of thin air (not my first thought, but I'm trying to be nice).

The situations I am talking about exists. The situations you are talking about do not. Magtheridon comes to mind, as do the Four Horsemen. The only way to reduce the complexity of these fights is to change the encounter.