05-25-2008, 04:20 PM
Hi,
Frankly, I have no stake in this discussion, being a complete newbie in WoW. However, when I see an example of mathematics being tortured, I must speak out. Lets start with:
25 people increase this to 1-(1-.2)^25 ~ 99.62%.
OK, these results are just as meaningless as yours. Together they represent some kind of boundaries between the cases of everyone having the same task and each person having a different task. Just where raids fall on that continuum is not clear to me, and probably wouldn't be if I'd done four raids a day since beta. And of course, the numbers for probability of success have been plucked out of thin air (not my first thought, but I'm trying to be nice).
Final point and summary: this really isn't a question of mathematics. Pick your conclusion, generate your premises and it is all meaningless. Aside from that, the overall discussion is very interesting.
--Pete
Frankly, I have no stake in this discussion, being a complete newbie in WoW. However, when I see an example of mathematics being tortured, I must speak out. Lets start with:
Quote:Make those tasks complex, and the chance of success drops like a rock for all involved.If complex tasks are not an issue, then why bring up complex tasks at all? Did you just happen to have an extra red herring around? But to go one step further, the complexity of a task is only slightly related to the probability of success. Simple example; dancing a waltz is more complicated than walking a tightrope, yet the probability of failure in the population at large and with equal amounts of instruction is very likely greater for the tightrope.
Would Blizzard make an encounter where 25 people have to complete complex tasks? Probably not. But then, they wouldn't make 10-man encounters where 10 people have to complete complex tasks, either.
Quote:Let's say five people have different tasks. They each have a 99% chance of completing their own. The chance for overall success is .99^5 ~ .9510, or 95.10%.Let's say five people have the same task. They each have a 20% chance of completing it. The chance for overall success (i.e., the task getting completed at least once) is 1-(1-.2)^5 ~ 67.23%.
25 people increase this to .99^25 ~ .7778, or 77.78%.
25 people increase this to 1-(1-.2)^25 ~ 99.62%.
OK, these results are just as meaningless as yours. Together they represent some kind of boundaries between the cases of everyone having the same task and each person having a different task. Just where raids fall on that continuum is not clear to me, and probably wouldn't be if I'd done four raids a day since beta. And of course, the numbers for probability of success have been plucked out of thin air (not my first thought, but I'm trying to be nice).
Final point and summary: this really isn't a question of mathematics. Pick your conclusion, generate your premises and it is all meaningless. Aside from that, the overall discussion is very interesting.
--Pete
How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?