Mists of Pandaria discussion

[Lissa]

Now, sit down and actually analyze the data.

Yes, let's.

Every single MMO out there with 150k+ subscribers has lost subs in 2011 except Eve and Dofus. And the number of gained subscribers in both Eve and Dofus do not account for the loss of subs in Aion nor WoW (and Rift is losing subs, not gaining them). If WoW was losing subs because of competition, why have they lost so many (almost 1 Million) in the 6 months following the release of Cataclysm if it were really due to competition?

Your argument is nonsense when applied to Rift. You say it "lost" subscribers, but that's silly - Rift only came into existence in 2011. So obviously, its numbers must either be added to the market share (unlikely, because it declined in 2011), or coming from some other game. What game is that? Maybe we should go look at the threads on the Lounge, which tell us that at least some WoW players we all know and love went to play Rift for awhile. Does that not seem a likely source of bleed?

And don't count Aion out. Just because they're decreasing, doesn't mean there is no effect. Absent Aion, some of those three million mostly Korean players might have chosen to say in WoW, or joined WoW. That's all competition, and it affects Blizzard's numbers.

Nobody is arguing that this is exclusively due to competition. Bolty, TD, and others have all suggested the obvious argument: WoW is getting old and boring. Seven years is an awful long time. Some of that 1 million decline are surely WoW players leaving the MMO market entirely. But not all of them - that would imply no other MMO is losing subscribers, when, as you rightly point out, almost all of them are.

Come on Jester, I know you can analyze way better than you have been in this post so far. There is no good reason to see why WoW has lost 800k subscribers when every MMO out there has been losing subs since right around June of this year with the exceptions of Eve and Dofus (which don't account for those lost subs, and again, look at Rifts, it jumped to 500k at it's launch or shortly after, but has already lost 100k before June hit).

WoW has lost 800,000 subscribers since mid-2010, not since mid-2011. The overall market has been declining since the beginning of 2011. Rift began competing in March 2011, when it launched, so that should affect the late 2011 figures. That's half a million entrants into the arena, some of whom we *know* came from WoW, because they're here on the forum.

Look at the data again Jester, look at how Blizzard reacted at Blizzcon, they're losing subs and they have no real competition to blame for those losses.

There is no law saying Blizzard's subs should remain fixed. Indeed, what they have already accomplished is an amazing feat of "defying gravity" - an MMO that retains a colossal subscriber base for seven whole years. The usual lifespan of a game, even an MMO, is a fraction of that length. Losing subscribers after a long time is a perfectly normal thing for a game.

Indeed, one of the major mechanisms by which this happens, is only too obvious from this thread: Novelty wears off, boredom sets in, and expectations rise to unsustainable levels. WoW can't keep its head above water forever, no matter how good their design is. Video games are not eternal. What we are saying, is that this is a natural, slow death that the game is dying. What you seem to be saying is that there was a Cataclysm Cataclysm, and that the stats show it. There wasn't, and they don't.

-Jester

Did you bother to look at the charts at all there Jester? Take another look at Rift, launch in March, pops up to 600k in April/early May, drops to 450k subs in June/July. Now, given, it's only been three months, but that's a drop in subscriptions from it's peak.

Now you say, don't count Aion out. Ummm...4 Million subs in 2009, down to 3 Million subs in 2011.

And then we have WoW, been bouncing between 12 Million and 11.5 between late 2008 (launch of Wrath) to late 2010 (launch of Cata). After 6 months, WoW dropped 800k subs and looks to be continuing downward from information being shown by Blizzard's actions.

You can try and massage the results however you like, but the over-riding situation here is this: WoW is losing subscriptions because of a change in how they do things. It can be seen with the start of Wrath, but stayed pretty constant once is dropped down, but right now, the situation is does not look to be following that with WoW by the way Blizzard is acting.

"Here, have 4 months of play time if you buy the CE of Diablo 3." "Have Diablo 3 free if you pay for a 1 year subscription to WoW." You start to see the point yet? Blizzard is scrambling and they know the player base is not happy with the direction it is going. They are trying to stave off the loss of subscriptions anyway they have, even going so far as to try to mimic The Old Republic's companion aspect. Blizzard is flayling about to try and hold subs and it's not working.

Next week will give us a picture of just how bad the situation is when ATVI releases 3 Quarter results.

My point is, you cannot compare WoW to any other MMO. It is an entirely different beast. You are looking at ants and trying to compare their life cycles to bears. It doesn't work.

How is WoW a different beast from other MMOs? What is your criteria for an MMO that makes such a comparison not work?

I was exaggerating before. You can draw parallels, but don't expect them to apply. WoW is just unlike any other MMO, simply due to its completely massive size.

There is also a fallacy in expecting things to happen simply because they have happened before.

Simply put, wrong. Look at the graphs that were posted. Look at what happens with successful MMOs. They all die out eventually. So far the longest running MMO that has continued to grow is EVE. Given, it's subscriber base is lower than WoW, but you do have to give some credit that they are able to keep people that active for that long without seeing any dips.