Trade Skill Question

[Lissa]

In general, orange = chance to skill up of 100%, yellow is 66%, and green is around 33%.

There's a catch.  This doesn't hold true across the board.  For some skills this works like clockwork.  For some other stuff, the yellow can drift down into the 50% category and some green recipes will drift down into the 10% range.  It's hard to really calculate variation from mean with such small data sets, though.  I've had some cooking recipes that stayed in the 10% range through several hundred attempts, though, so while it's possible its a statistical anomoly, it could just be the recipe.
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Orange isn't 100% all the time. The closer you get to yellow, there are chances to fail, I have seen it occur once or twice. It's fairly rare for Orange to fail, but, there is a chance if you're at the cusp of the recipe going yellow.

From my observation, it doesn't follow at set percentage, it is a sloping scale. When the recipe first becomes availabe you get 100% (this is while orange) and then slopes downward to 0% at grey. As such, Orange you will see is something like 100% when initial and about 90 to 95% when just about to turn Yellow. Then just as the recipe turns Yellow it takes the previous Orange mark and continues to slope downward to around 50% just when the recipe is about to go Green. Once it hits Green it goes from about 50% and continues to slope toward 0% when it finally goes Grey.