Trade Skill Question

[savaughn]

Description says it all. I remember that Allakhazam used to list some of the skill levels when each formula turned green and then gray, but they don't seem to list it there anymore and I haven't found another place that does.

Is there some other reference that still had this data?

Related Question: Anyone know what the formula is for a chance to skill up? Here's what I know:

Red: can't do it :(
Orange: always skill up
Yellow: almost always skill up -> medium chance to skill up
Green: medium chance -> no chance at all
Gray: no chance

I'm guessing that the Yellow/Green division is at about 50% chance and that there is some formula for chance to skill up at various skill levels between when a skill turns yellow and when it turns gray.

With the above two bits of information, it should be possible to figure out the chance to skill up on any recipe at any given skill level.
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In general, orange = chance to skill up of 100%, yellow is 66%, and green is around 33%.

There's a catch. This doesn't hold true across the board. For some skills this works like clockwork. For some other stuff, the yellow can drift down into the 50% category and some green recipes will drift down into the 10% range. It's hard to really calculate variation from mean with such small data sets, though. I've had some cooking recipes that stayed in the 10% range through several hundred attempts, though, so while it's possible its a statistical anomoly, it could just be the recipe.