So, just what are we talking about?

[LiquidDamage]

b= belief g = god y =yes  n = no
b/g

1.  yy = good outcome:  harps, coffee, guinness, no slow cooker

2.  ny = bad outcome:   no coffee, no guinness, yes slow cooker

3.  nn= good (or good enough) outcome: proven correct, no coffee, no guinness, worms chow down, finis

4.  yn= good outcome (or is it neutral outcome?  Is eternal disappointment a bad outcome?)  No coffee, No guinness, worms chow down, No Harps but felt good about the Faith?

Sorry, this is still a fallacy. From lemming's site:

From A Handbook of Logical Fallacies:
FALSE ALTERNATIVE
   Assuming that only one alternative exists in a given situation, when in
fact, other and usually more fundamental alternatives exist also. This is
frequently expressed by the question, "What other explanation could there
be?"

There are an extremely large number of possibilities that should also be accepted as possible truths, if you are going to accept any particular god as a possibility. The options are not "believe in God" and "don't believe in God", with truth possibilities being far more than "God exists" and "God doesn't exist".

Under the current existing religions, I don't believe there is a single one that says "believe in God and go to heaven". The most common version I have heard of Christianity requires that you believe that Jesus is God and your savior, and that he died for your sins. If this is true, then mere belief in God isn't going to get you into heaven. So, adherence to a particular religion's requirements for getting in to heaven should be what you replace "belief in god" with. If we do this, you aren't batting anywhere near .500. I don't think you need me to come up with a list of current religions, or the incompatible denominations in each, in order to show that there aren't only two options, or two results. There are a heck of a lot of possibilities and options, and our odds of meeting the right one aren't very good.

Furthermore, it is entirely possible (and I think very likely) that not one of the current religions is remotely correct, and "the truth" is something we may not even be able to comprehend.

For all I know, I might go to hell because God is a member of some powerful extra-dimensional race that makes universes for fun, and he really, really hates people that argue religion and politics on message boards. Hell may also consist of a planet entirely made of ice cream, because said race views being forced to eat ice cream as a horrible torture. Silly, yes, but I don't see it as any less silly than the options presented by any current religion regarding heaven, hell, and how to get in to each.