04-14-2003, 05:39 PM
Albania really isn't a better anti-Italian position. Really. Closer to Italy doesn't mean better. Especially because Italy could then run F IOS-EMS unopposed, ordering F Tun to IOS and setting up a convoy to Syria or Smyrna (which is basically forcing you to make a 50-50 guess each turn or get eliminated early. Plus, not taking Ser would give you only one build to counter that. Taking Ser gives you two builds, which allows you to basically counter any heartland stab since you can build the counter on the spot.
Attack from Bul. I really don't see what kind of Russian backstab could hurt you. A Gal-Rum, F Rum-Bul(ec)? Even if it succeeded, you'd just build in Con and kick him out next turn (all five of your units would be on Bul, he couldn't possibly keep it). And he'd be giving up Bud to take Bul, which means he doesn't even get an extra centre out of the deal. Still, if you're concerned about it, there's no harm in ordering F BLA-Bul(ec), F AEG-Bul(sc), which stands off any attempt on Bulgaria while keeping your fleets in good positions.
Of course, a really devious Italian move would be F IOS-Gre, cutting your support while getting the benefit of your attack to take Tri and Bud (but not letting you have Ser). That's one of those things you'll have to hope doesn't happen, though: if you attack from Gre, an Italian F IOS-Gre will stand off F AEG-Gre and you'll end up with one build either way. Attacking from Bul is your best chance for two builds.
Attacking from Bul also sends a good message to Russia. Should you worry about Russia? I'd have to say no. Not because there isn't a chance that Russia won't ally with Italy and kill you - there is a chance that he'll do that. It's because if Russia allies with Italy and kills you, you're dead. You can't even rely on England and France advancing in time to save you, especially with England's glacially slow offense and the way France is shooting himself in the foot repeatedly (that fleet in Bel will haunt him for a while). My point is, there's really no use contemplating no-win scenarios; Italy and Russia could break off their attack on Austria and go full force against you next turn, but there's really no point in anticipating and ordering a counter on that basis - first, it's unlikely, second, if it happens you're dead anyway. You can't ally with Italy at this point. There are a myriad number of reasons why. I've already mentioned the fleets, but even assuming you agree to hold them all, any land offensive involves him getting Bud and you getting Rum. Past that, Italy is overextended (War is too far with you still in the game) and so he'll switch sides and go right back at you. At worst, you need Russia to say "You two fight it out over the Balkans, I'm going north." At best, he orders his remaining two units to actively assist you against Italy (and probably asks for Vie).
Allying with Russia favours him, but unfortunately for you it's the only game in town. And you'd better take it before Italy does.
Attack from Bul. I really don't see what kind of Russian backstab could hurt you. A Gal-Rum, F Rum-Bul(ec)? Even if it succeeded, you'd just build in Con and kick him out next turn (all five of your units would be on Bul, he couldn't possibly keep it). And he'd be giving up Bud to take Bul, which means he doesn't even get an extra centre out of the deal. Still, if you're concerned about it, there's no harm in ordering F BLA-Bul(ec), F AEG-Bul(sc), which stands off any attempt on Bulgaria while keeping your fleets in good positions.
Of course, a really devious Italian move would be F IOS-Gre, cutting your support while getting the benefit of your attack to take Tri and Bud (but not letting you have Ser). That's one of those things you'll have to hope doesn't happen, though: if you attack from Gre, an Italian F IOS-Gre will stand off F AEG-Gre and you'll end up with one build either way. Attacking from Bul is your best chance for two builds.
Attacking from Bul also sends a good message to Russia. Should you worry about Russia? I'd have to say no. Not because there isn't a chance that Russia won't ally with Italy and kill you - there is a chance that he'll do that. It's because if Russia allies with Italy and kills you, you're dead. You can't even rely on England and France advancing in time to save you, especially with England's glacially slow offense and the way France is shooting himself in the foot repeatedly (that fleet in Bel will haunt him for a while). My point is, there's really no use contemplating no-win scenarios; Italy and Russia could break off their attack on Austria and go full force against you next turn, but there's really no point in anticipating and ordering a counter on that basis - first, it's unlikely, second, if it happens you're dead anyway. You can't ally with Italy at this point. There are a myriad number of reasons why. I've already mentioned the fleets, but even assuming you agree to hold them all, any land offensive involves him getting Bud and you getting Rum. Past that, Italy is overextended (War is too far with you still in the game) and so he'll switch sides and go right back at you. At worst, you need Russia to say "You two fight it out over the Balkans, I'm going north." At best, he orders his remaining two units to actively assist you against Italy (and probably asks for Vie).
Allying with Russia favours him, but unfortunately for you it's the only game in town. And you'd better take it before Italy does.