04-13-2003, 05:32 AM
Standard Russia-Turkey advice is predicated on the assumption that all players on the board are competitive - i.e., no one's playing for a tie. Alliance players are a blight upon Diplomacy, but something with which we must all live. Whenever introducing the game, I often like to point out that a "tie" is in no way better than a loss: a "tie" means that everyone loses, and playing for a tie means that you're just the largest player that didn't win.
Not everyone sees it that way, of course. Which means that often, other players may have to respond to alliance play with their own. Then you're in a bad position, of course, since if Russia and Italy finish off Austria fast enough, they can do for you and still turn to meet the oncoming Anglo-French horde.
You have two options.
1) Stab Russia. This turn. A Gre-Bul, F AEG-Gre, A Bul-Sev, F BLA C A Bul-Sev. Not a good idea. The chances that you'll come to an agreement with Italy are small. And Russia will likely pull back from the north to defend, kicking the door wide open for jolly old England. If Austria was more competent and England and France weren't solidly allied, I'd recommend this, but I can't with the situation as is.
2) Attack Italy and ally yourself firmly with Russia until the first cracks appear in the England-France alliance. If they never appear, so be it. If England and France are planning on allying until the end of the game, you have a lot more to worry about than Russia getting the better of your alliance.
This turn, sit tight. You could take Ser this turn, but you want to wait, because you can take Ser just as easily on your next turn, and leaving Ser untaken this turn prevents Italy from taking Tri (unless Austria misorders his defence) and slows his tempo. There's one case where Italy gets Tri anyway, which is where Italy goes in with two supports and Russia hits Bud, cutting one. You'll have to assess the probability of that occurring on your own; if it's likely Italy gets Tri anyway, then take Ser.
Assuming Italy doesn't get Tri right away, next turn, support yourself into Serbia. Ten to one that Ionian fleet is going into the Adriatic, and that guarantees Tri even if you don't touch Ser. So this turn, support yourself in place, shuffle a bit and seem nonthreatening. Going around Ser is going to accomplish nothing more than waving a giant "I'M ALLIED WITH AUSTRIA" flag that you don't need waved. Seriously, what does A Gre-Alb, F AEG-Gre get you? You don't gain another support on Serbia, you don't gain a support into the Ionian....
At this point tactics take a backseat. It's the reason why this game isn't called chess on a Europe board. You need to make yourself look like a better choice than Italy as an ally. Driving in a straight line toward Italy does that. Appearing allied with Austria doesn't, because Russia wants Budapest. There's no way you'll reach an accommodation with Italy after Austria's dead: he has fleets, you have fleets and they aren't going to coexist peacefully in the Med. Russia's also a better option because you can convince him to invest more heavily in the north: prod him to build F StP(nc) and go after Norway before England gets too big. It's also imperative to convince Russia that having you on his south flank is better than having a large, hungry and competent Italy.
If your diplomacy's good enough, you have a third option: sit on your five or six centres and make it clear that whoever attacks you first earns your eternal wrath, and that you'll ally with the other one to wipe whoever it was who attacked you from the earth. You have to be pretty confident to do this, though, because there's a possibility that they decide to attack you together and you have to be sure that they aren't thinking that way.
Not everyone sees it that way, of course. Which means that often, other players may have to respond to alliance play with their own. Then you're in a bad position, of course, since if Russia and Italy finish off Austria fast enough, they can do for you and still turn to meet the oncoming Anglo-French horde.
You have two options.
1) Stab Russia. This turn. A Gre-Bul, F AEG-Gre, A Bul-Sev, F BLA C A Bul-Sev. Not a good idea. The chances that you'll come to an agreement with Italy are small. And Russia will likely pull back from the north to defend, kicking the door wide open for jolly old England. If Austria was more competent and England and France weren't solidly allied, I'd recommend this, but I can't with the situation as is.
2) Attack Italy and ally yourself firmly with Russia until the first cracks appear in the England-France alliance. If they never appear, so be it. If England and France are planning on allying until the end of the game, you have a lot more to worry about than Russia getting the better of your alliance.
This turn, sit tight. You could take Ser this turn, but you want to wait, because you can take Ser just as easily on your next turn, and leaving Ser untaken this turn prevents Italy from taking Tri (unless Austria misorders his defence) and slows his tempo. There's one case where Italy gets Tri anyway, which is where Italy goes in with two supports and Russia hits Bud, cutting one. You'll have to assess the probability of that occurring on your own; if it's likely Italy gets Tri anyway, then take Ser.
Assuming Italy doesn't get Tri right away, next turn, support yourself into Serbia. Ten to one that Ionian fleet is going into the Adriatic, and that guarantees Tri even if you don't touch Ser. So this turn, support yourself in place, shuffle a bit and seem nonthreatening. Going around Ser is going to accomplish nothing more than waving a giant "I'M ALLIED WITH AUSTRIA" flag that you don't need waved. Seriously, what does A Gre-Alb, F AEG-Gre get you? You don't gain another support on Serbia, you don't gain a support into the Ionian....
At this point tactics take a backseat. It's the reason why this game isn't called chess on a Europe board. You need to make yourself look like a better choice than Italy as an ally. Driving in a straight line toward Italy does that. Appearing allied with Austria doesn't, because Russia wants Budapest. There's no way you'll reach an accommodation with Italy after Austria's dead: he has fleets, you have fleets and they aren't going to coexist peacefully in the Med. Russia's also a better option because you can convince him to invest more heavily in the north: prod him to build F StP(nc) and go after Norway before England gets too big. It's also imperative to convince Russia that having you on his south flank is better than having a large, hungry and competent Italy.
If your diplomacy's good enough, you have a third option: sit on your five or six centres and make it clear that whoever attacks you first earns your eternal wrath, and that you'll ally with the other one to wipe whoever it was who attacked you from the earth. You have to be pretty confident to do this, though, because there's a possibility that they decide to attack you together and you have to be sure that they aren't thinking that way.