03-30-2003, 06:41 AM
Firstly, you're really lucky that France failed to order. Playing unsupported to ENG while moving out of Lon was a pretty big risk, and if France had ordered at all, you might have been looking at the Convoy of Death and having to play a guessing game with London and Wales (you could order the self-bounce, but that would freeze you out of Denmark).
But, you took a risk and the gamble paid off - unexpectedly, but things happen like that sometimes. A good gamble to take.
Germany made a mistake by going to Lvn, but it's not critical. RUSSIAN F GOB will be gone next turn and going to Lvn gives him the ability to retreat Den to BAL and make your life very miserable.
Anyway, you can take Denmark this turn with your HEL fleet and arrange the self-standoff, which denies Germany a build. You could go in from NTS as well, but a forward-retreat to SKA would be hard to deal with in that case - you'd have to simultaneously cover NTS, since an unopposed F SKA-NTS would hurt very much, and support Den against a possible F SKA-Den, A Kie S F SKA-Den.
Even if you go in with the Hel fleet, there is a problem in keeping Germany from taking Den back. Once the Warsaw capture removes the GOB fleet, he'll be able to generate a 50-50 chance to take either Sweden or Denmark every turn. He'll order F GOB-Swe, A Kie-Den every turn, throwing support from F BAL (retreated from Den) randomly at one of them, forcing you to guess his support to keep your centre (and incidentally, forcing you to go into SKA).
If Austria keeps A Mun tied down, Germany probably won't leave Hol uncovered. That means you can buy a few turns with F NTS S F Den, F Den S Swe, A Swe H, F StP(nc) H. As long as the Austrian army runs rampant in the German rear, he'll have to devote at least two armies to guarding War, Ber and Mun. Hmmm. This calls for some negotiation. You're absolutely right about panic, and if you can keep the German forces spread thin, he won't make progress.
On the other side, you can pretty much stop France this turn with F NAO-MAO, F ENG H, F NTS S F ENG. No matter what he orders the Denmark build is F Lvp and you have the three-fleet stalemate. F IRI S F ENG and France is stuck no matter what he does. At that point it should be clear to him that the result of continued alliance with Germany will result in Germany getting all the builds, which should make France more...receptive. If you've stopped Germany, too, all you have to do is sit back and wait for the best offer, since if neither of them can make headway against you, then their only option is to deal.
Naturally, I rarely consider cases of serendipitous good fortune :) Should Germany vacate War he'll have put the screws on his own offensive effort for a little while. If you can bluff Germany into ordering the Sil standoff and getting Austria to order the support for War (a finesse move if ever there was one!) great, but counting on that's no good.
Turkey...! What happened to HIM? Over half his units stand there looking pathetic while Austria sinks a sword into him. I say "sword" because the attack is far too obvious to be termed a "backstab". Never heard of supporting "just in case", I see. Well, Turkey's learning the consequences of blindfolding himself in a room full of daggers. I'd gamed out some possibilities where Turkey defended properly and drove hard for a solo win, but that's all out the window now. Which only goes to show that when projecting what beginners will do, experienced players like myself can make perfectly logical assumptions which bear absolutely no relation to what they're going to do.
It looks like cooperation to me; the operative move is AUSTRIAN A Tri-Bud - moving *away* from the area of highest tension. Which means that Turkey's in a bit of a bind right now. Against experienced players he'd be in more than a bind, he'd be dead after A Apu-Smy, F IOS C A Apu-Smy, F AEG C A Apu-Smy, and A Rum-Bul, A Ser S A Rum-Bul, F Gre S A Rum-Bul. As it is he might still come out of this alive through some failure to grasp the correct tactical move on Austria's part (probably an attempt to support Rum in place), or an attempt by Italy to take Greece.
The potential Austro-Italian alliance has good points and bad points. You seem to have gotten in Austria and Italy's good graces, so it might not be such a bad thing for you. OTOH, committing against Turkey may mean that Italy won't go against France and that Austria will pull in his marauder. It'll be interesting to see how this turns out.
But, you took a risk and the gamble paid off - unexpectedly, but things happen like that sometimes. A good gamble to take.
Germany made a mistake by going to Lvn, but it's not critical. RUSSIAN F GOB will be gone next turn and going to Lvn gives him the ability to retreat Den to BAL and make your life very miserable.
Anyway, you can take Denmark this turn with your HEL fleet and arrange the self-standoff, which denies Germany a build. You could go in from NTS as well, but a forward-retreat to SKA would be hard to deal with in that case - you'd have to simultaneously cover NTS, since an unopposed F SKA-NTS would hurt very much, and support Den against a possible F SKA-Den, A Kie S F SKA-Den.
Even if you go in with the Hel fleet, there is a problem in keeping Germany from taking Den back. Once the Warsaw capture removes the GOB fleet, he'll be able to generate a 50-50 chance to take either Sweden or Denmark every turn. He'll order F GOB-Swe, A Kie-Den every turn, throwing support from F BAL (retreated from Den) randomly at one of them, forcing you to guess his support to keep your centre (and incidentally, forcing you to go into SKA).
If Austria keeps A Mun tied down, Germany probably won't leave Hol uncovered. That means you can buy a few turns with F NTS S F Den, F Den S Swe, A Swe H, F StP(nc) H. As long as the Austrian army runs rampant in the German rear, he'll have to devote at least two armies to guarding War, Ber and Mun. Hmmm. This calls for some negotiation. You're absolutely right about panic, and if you can keep the German forces spread thin, he won't make progress.
On the other side, you can pretty much stop France this turn with F NAO-MAO, F ENG H, F NTS S F ENG. No matter what he orders the Denmark build is F Lvp and you have the three-fleet stalemate. F IRI S F ENG and France is stuck no matter what he does. At that point it should be clear to him that the result of continued alliance with Germany will result in Germany getting all the builds, which should make France more...receptive. If you've stopped Germany, too, all you have to do is sit back and wait for the best offer, since if neither of them can make headway against you, then their only option is to deal.
Naturally, I rarely consider cases of serendipitous good fortune :) Should Germany vacate War he'll have put the screws on his own offensive effort for a little while. If you can bluff Germany into ordering the Sil standoff and getting Austria to order the support for War (a finesse move if ever there was one!) great, but counting on that's no good.
Turkey...! What happened to HIM? Over half his units stand there looking pathetic while Austria sinks a sword into him. I say "sword" because the attack is far too obvious to be termed a "backstab". Never heard of supporting "just in case", I see. Well, Turkey's learning the consequences of blindfolding himself in a room full of daggers. I'd gamed out some possibilities where Turkey defended properly and drove hard for a solo win, but that's all out the window now. Which only goes to show that when projecting what beginners will do, experienced players like myself can make perfectly logical assumptions which bear absolutely no relation to what they're going to do.
It looks like cooperation to me; the operative move is AUSTRIAN A Tri-Bud - moving *away* from the area of highest tension. Which means that Turkey's in a bit of a bind right now. Against experienced players he'd be in more than a bind, he'd be dead after A Apu-Smy, F IOS C A Apu-Smy, F AEG C A Apu-Smy, and A Rum-Bul, A Ser S A Rum-Bul, F Gre S A Rum-Bul. As it is he might still come out of this alive through some failure to grasp the correct tactical move on Austria's part (probably an attempt to support Rum in place), or an attempt by Italy to take Greece.
The potential Austro-Italian alliance has good points and bad points. You seem to have gotten in Austria and Italy's good graces, so it might not be such a bad thing for you. OTOH, committing against Turkey may mean that Italy won't go against France and that Austria will pull in his marauder. It'll be interesting to see how this turns out.