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[Skandranon]

Fixing Germany down while I play "twist the nipple of Brest" with the French is going to be a problem. There is no diplomatic channel between Berlin and London, but I have smoked out one spy holding Germany's ear.

F Hel is the only thing nailing A Hol in place as long as the Austrian "intervention" is in play. Once F Hel ---> NtS is enacted, the German-French understanding would allow A Hol ---> Kiel. I could probably bait F Pru to eye St. Petersburg and thus keep him out of the Baltic, but I have no idea on how to keep the French and Germans fixed in the Low Countries. The French-Italian war, I could strike up (given that Germany has serenaded both nations to his own ends, and I'm sure Italy would not like learning about France-Germany while Italy-Germany was going so well with the Munich deal, but that nixxes my covert "messenger" to Berlin).

And as to Turkey: his build was an Army in Constantinople!  :rolleyes:

Yes, the German-French problem is something you're pretty much going to have to wait on. Your objective is to hold tight until someone on the other side of the board can come to your rescue, or until you can entice one of France or Germany to turn on the other.

And your assumption regarding F Hel is wrong. Unless the German player can read your mind, he won't know you're pulling F Hel to NTS until it's there, meaning the A Hol-Kie move takes place in the Fall - when you're already launching a supported attack on Denmark.

On the other hand, you really HAVE to play to NTS, because the Germans have a move that could really ruin your day: F Den-NTS! Realizing that Austria doesn't present an immediate threat, F Pru-Bal, A Mun-Kie, A Sil-Mun defends himself while F Den sails into the North Sea. Hello, Edinburgh! And not just with the fleet. F NTS C A Hol-Edi, or even C FRENCH A Bel-Edi, and it's game over England.

You could block the NTS move with F Lon. But that gives you only F Wal and F Lvp to stop the French. Again, the French have the two possibilities I outlined above. If the French go to the Channel, the only defensive plan you can order would have to be F Lvp-Wal, F Wal-Lon, to avoid having an army (presumably A Pic) convoyed into Wales or London. You could order Lvp to IRI or NAO, but then that puts your Wales fleet in the unenviable position of having a 50-50 guess, with a failure meaning that a French army lands (and you lose).

And if they don't go to the Channel and go for the backdoor play to NAO, the only way to stop that is Lvp-NAO. In other words, if you play to NTS with Lon, you no longer have the luxury of ordering one defence that stops both attacks. That said, everyone has to take risks somewhere, and if you guess correctly for just one turn you can take Den, slap down a new fleet in Lvp or Lon and freeze France in his tracks.

One thing that might play in your favour is that newbies are rarely eager to make good moves if it involves uncovering a supply centre. Despite the fact that F Den-NTS doesn't necessarily lose Den (with F Pru-BAL, A Mun-Kie he can bounce you and keep Den), Germany may not be contemplating this move. You could gamble and not play to NTS, but if he does and you don't you can't stop him from taking Edi.

Either way you're in defensive mode. You have to take Denmark since it's an extremely defensible territory, only one German army can get adjacent to it. Then clog the waters near France with fleets and hopefully one of them gets frustrated enough to go for the other. I'd start working on that now, like reopening that contact with Germany.

Actually, you know what's uglier than France supporting Italy against Austria?

These moves combined with Turkey's build of A Con.

Italy: F IOS-EMS, F Nap-IOS
Austria: A Tri-Ser, A Ser-Gre, A Tyl-Tri, A Gal-Bud, F Gre-AEG

If Turkey does what I expect him to do and takes Moscow, continuing to move his armies north and west, Italy and Austria will be ready to administer quite the surprise. And if Italy and Austria kick off against Turkey, that leaves absolutely no one to come and rescue you...meaning you're in for a long, grinding defence.