Wow Kerry took the Florida primary!

[kandrathe]

At this point a candidate now needs to look at electoral votes. If the candidate takes the state(meaning he has a majority popular votes within that state), he gets the electoral votes from that state. New York, Florida, Texas, and California have the largest populations, and therefore electoral votes. The sum of the rest is significant, and some medium sized states like Michigan, Illinois, New Jersey, and many of the southern states have a big influence as well. If Bush were broadly popular, then I'd say he would be re-elected. The incumbent has an advantage historically, but I sense a huge anger among liberal democrats. Yet, I saw that same polarized anger against Ronald Reagan, and he seemed to have no trouble getting re-elected. You need to look then at large constituencies, like the elderly, the working class, etc. and sense where they might be leaning.

Kerry also has some baggage to distance himself from if he can;
Veterans Against Kerry Ad