Gradual Reduction in MF Effectiveness

[Jarulf]

>So you roll a die 100 times and it comes up a 5 or a 6
>only 1 out of every 6 times.


So basically you got it 17 times.


>Then roll a die 100 more times. This next time you do it
>a 5 or a 6 only comes up 1 out of every 10 times.

So now, only 10 times.


>Then roll it 100 more times. Now a 5 or a 6 is coming up
>only 1 out of 1very 20 times.

And only 5 times. But what if it came out as a 1 (changed from 5), 5 times now but only 1 time above. The your "decrease" does in fact not exist and you are drawing conclusions on the wrong data. For the game you based it not on the number of times the game wanted to drop a unique, but rather on how many was failed or not. VERY different thing. You might as well base it on the number of chickens you saw in town. Well, not really, but almost. And I think that in many cases, this is what people might have seen or other similar effects.


>If it is true that a gradual slide off is happening this
>slide off will show up if you count only the 6es or if you
>count both the 6es and the 5-changed-to1-es.

But you need a LOT more samples then. And since people usually do very few (comparable), it is MUCH harder to draw conclusions if you do not count all.