Hi,
Considering the number of engineers that I met while working on weapons design that were ignorant of CEP, is it any wonder that the population at large and, especially, the media does not understand the concept? When the vast majority of the practitioners of in a field only "understand" a concept on the basis of some published tables and some standard tests ("test" is engineerese for "experiment", as in "flight test"), how can they explain the concepts to people who've had even less math than they?
And therein lies a major problem. In the USA the population at large through their duly elected representatives decides their destiny. As Jefferson was found of pointing out, the basis for representative democracy is education. However in his day a single individual could compass all that was known. The situation has changed a bit in that even a "specialist" in a field seldom knows, or even can know, more than one or two sub-fields in any detail. In the rest of his field he is little more knowledgeable than the informed layman. The "Renaissance Man" died with the Renaissance, a victim of his successor's ability to acquire new knowledge.
Many of the decisions made by politicians, based on the combined ignorance (of other fields) and prejudice (within their field) of their advisers, have been wrong. These decisions have effected both the life we live and the life we will live. The fields effected are no longer just the technical fields. Agricultural policy, foreign policy, economics, even education and transportation have all been effected by decisions made in ignorance. And, yet to a large degree that ignorance is incurable and inescapable. It is the a simple consequence of the vastness of the total knowledge compiled to date by humanity and the limits of how much any one individual can learn.
So, what is the solution? An end to representative government where we turn the decision making more and more to the "experts"? This is becoming more and more the actual case. Aside from the fact that few experts have no agenda, there is the question of how to determine a true expert in the first place. Many of the events, at least in science, of the past few decades indicate that many "experts" are but plausible frauds. The true experts are too absorbed in their field to take time to educate or advise. It is easy to fault them for this, overlooking the fact that it is exactly their single minded devotion to their field that makes them experts. No, government by "experts" is not a pleasant prospect.
Frankly, I am at a loss for a solution of this problem. None of the proposals which I've seen seem to both be likely to work and still maintain a representative democracy. While the concept of more and better education is valid and valuable in itself, the amount needed to be mastered for a true understanding of a complex and technological world is too great to expect many, if any, to achieve. The application of the staff principle to a civilian government appears attractive, but can rapidly degenerate into bureaucracy (which we are already seeing) and nepotism. Other, more radical solutions, appear even worse.
So, what does all this have to do with the "hostages" and the situation in Iraq? I suspect that the situation itself has grown to the proportions it has because of ignorance: the willful ignorance of the world at large of the behavior of Saddam and Iraq over the twelve years since the end of the Gulf War of '91 (I don't buy your numbering, Occhi, in that that region has had wars since before recorded history. If were to keep track of all of them, then we'd be into six digit numbers). The ignorance of the American administration, both in trying the transparent terrorism bluff and in failing to prepare the world through diplomacy (read "propaganda") prior to going this route. The ignorance of the media on both sides, neither of which has given a balanced overview of the situation. The ignorance of many in the world of both the intentions and the capabilities of the military forces of the United States. And, finally, the ignorance of the self styled hostages both as to their importance and to their ability to effect the course of events.
The Ugly American by Burd!ck and Lederer has been in print over forty years. The incompetence of American foreign policy described in this book are still alive and well. I sometimes suspect that those in the government think this is a textbook on how to run a foreign policy rather than a cautionary tale on what to avoid. Again, just plain old fashioned ignorance.
--Pete
PS EDIT To the list of ignorance, let me add the ignorance of self styled censors that force me to employ a "!" in the name of an author to avoid a word that is, amongst other things, the common nickname of many men called "Richard". Simple tests are made up by simple people.
Considering the number of engineers that I met while working on weapons design that were ignorant of CEP, is it any wonder that the population at large and, especially, the media does not understand the concept? When the vast majority of the practitioners of in a field only "understand" a concept on the basis of some published tables and some standard tests ("test" is engineerese for "experiment", as in "flight test"), how can they explain the concepts to people who've had even less math than they?
And therein lies a major problem. In the USA the population at large through their duly elected representatives decides their destiny. As Jefferson was found of pointing out, the basis for representative democracy is education. However in his day a single individual could compass all that was known. The situation has changed a bit in that even a "specialist" in a field seldom knows, or even can know, more than one or two sub-fields in any detail. In the rest of his field he is little more knowledgeable than the informed layman. The "Renaissance Man" died with the Renaissance, a victim of his successor's ability to acquire new knowledge.
Many of the decisions made by politicians, based on the combined ignorance (of other fields) and prejudice (within their field) of their advisers, have been wrong. These decisions have effected both the life we live and the life we will live. The fields effected are no longer just the technical fields. Agricultural policy, foreign policy, economics, even education and transportation have all been effected by decisions made in ignorance. And, yet to a large degree that ignorance is incurable and inescapable. It is the a simple consequence of the vastness of the total knowledge compiled to date by humanity and the limits of how much any one individual can learn.
So, what is the solution? An end to representative government where we turn the decision making more and more to the "experts"? This is becoming more and more the actual case. Aside from the fact that few experts have no agenda, there is the question of how to determine a true expert in the first place. Many of the events, at least in science, of the past few decades indicate that many "experts" are but plausible frauds. The true experts are too absorbed in their field to take time to educate or advise. It is easy to fault them for this, overlooking the fact that it is exactly their single minded devotion to their field that makes them experts. No, government by "experts" is not a pleasant prospect.
Frankly, I am at a loss for a solution of this problem. None of the proposals which I've seen seem to both be likely to work and still maintain a representative democracy. While the concept of more and better education is valid and valuable in itself, the amount needed to be mastered for a true understanding of a complex and technological world is too great to expect many, if any, to achieve. The application of the staff principle to a civilian government appears attractive, but can rapidly degenerate into bureaucracy (which we are already seeing) and nepotism. Other, more radical solutions, appear even worse.
So, what does all this have to do with the "hostages" and the situation in Iraq? I suspect that the situation itself has grown to the proportions it has because of ignorance: the willful ignorance of the world at large of the behavior of Saddam and Iraq over the twelve years since the end of the Gulf War of '91 (I don't buy your numbering, Occhi, in that that region has had wars since before recorded history. If were to keep track of all of them, then we'd be into six digit numbers). The ignorance of the American administration, both in trying the transparent terrorism bluff and in failing to prepare the world through diplomacy (read "propaganda") prior to going this route. The ignorance of the media on both sides, neither of which has given a balanced overview of the situation. The ignorance of many in the world of both the intentions and the capabilities of the military forces of the United States. And, finally, the ignorance of the self styled hostages both as to their importance and to their ability to effect the course of events.
The Ugly American by Burd!ck and Lederer has been in print over forty years. The incompetence of American foreign policy described in this book are still alive and well. I sometimes suspect that those in the government think this is a textbook on how to run a foreign policy rather than a cautionary tale on what to avoid. Again, just plain old fashioned ignorance.
--Pete
PS EDIT To the list of ignorance, let me add the ignorance of self styled censors that force me to employ a "!" in the name of an author to avoid a word that is, amongst other things, the common nickname of many men called "Richard". Simple tests are made up by simple people.
How big was the aquarium in Noah's ark?