03-02-2003, 02:20 AM
kandrathe,Mar 1 2003, 07:42 PM Wrote:Hmmm, that is one of the problems of having ultra precise devastating weapons. Even when you have bad information, you will hit what you aim at. Not quite. It's what comes from having powerful weapons, only. While the USA's weapons are the most accurate and precise in history, it doesn't mean you hit what you aim at. IIRC, the success rate of laser-guided and other "smart" munitions in the Gulf War was roughly 40%. Assuming improvement, let's put that at, say, 50-55% now, assuming they worked out the kinks in the JDAM guidance system (which, in its first combat trial, which was attacking Iraqi radar stations, accomplished a stunning 0% hit rate).
Don't get me wrong - 50-55% is phenomenally good. Considering a bomb dropped without guidance has a minutely tiny chance of hitting what you aim at, 50% is very good. But it means that yes, smart bombs do miss, and yes, they miss about half the time. It's better in clear weather, worse in cloudy weather. It works out to half.
Unfortunately, the American military's in a bit of a bind here. They can say, "well, our 'smart' munitions hit an incredible 50% of the time!" To which, the typically uninformed media will say "only 50%?!" when they haven't a clue as to how good 50% is, and then they'll turn it into some big mess which the military is better off without having to handle. Or, they can brag about pinpoint accuracy (which they do) and which certainly makes the bomb manufacturers happy (and, more importantly, doesn't get negative media attention), but then some people call that evidence that the American military really is aiming at citizens, or whatever it happens to hit. So they're faced with a choice of setting off the media (something to avoid, even if it is only because of their ignorance) or angering activists by appearing callous, and they chose activists.