06-02-2011, 02:08 AM
The Bin Laden thread turned into a look at the population imbalances in India and other developing areas of the world and it got me to thinking. Proposed population growth for the world is projected to hit 9 Billion by 2050, but I've also heard about the male to female imbalance ratio in China due to the one child law. So I decided to do a little search on wikipedia and found the following article:
Human Sex Ratio
Something to note is the various imbalances throughout the world. As can be seen, most western culture countries show an imbalance towards females while certain other cultures show imbalance towards males while others show no imbalance what-so-ever.
The one hypothesis I can see for why western culture has so many females to males could be attributed to wars, in the US the US Civil War and World War II having significant effects on the male population (600,000+ killed in the US Civil War and several hundred thousand in World War II) while Western Europe (and Australia/NZ) saw a whole male generation wiped out during World War I, the Russian and former Soviet countries seeing a large drop due to Stalin killing a proported 50+ Million of his own people, and the Bushido code professed by Japan (win or die).
Now with China and India, two countires that also took part in World War II, there is a cultural propensity for having a male child to carry on the family name. In the case of China specifically with it's one child law, this has led to female children being placed in orphanages and then being adopted out of country most of the time (pre-mid 80s) or abort (post mid-80s) until recently where the Chinese have cracked down families trying to get rid of female children. Then there is the loss of life during the Cultural Revolution (on the order of 30 to 40 Million). Now the article professes the ration of being 1.19 Males to Females, but this number comes from the Chinese government who is known to hide facts to make things look better. I have heard personal accounts of the ratio being much, much worse with number more like 1.5 or even higher (I've heard as high as 2 to 1 in worst case senario) Males to Females. Now India does not have the 1 child law like China, but there has been a push for something similar to reign in the rampant population growth there as well, but again, the culture wants males over females.
Another aspect to look at as well is the epidemic of AIDS in Africa where literally in some nations, 20% to 25% of the population is infected in some way.
So given this information, I'm not sure I can truly see the global population hitting the 9 Billion mark, there will start to be a definite slow down in the areas where population is growing quickly (China this is already occuring, but will likely also be seen in India and Africa due to other factors).
Looking at China specifically, with 10% of the population never procreated (using China's numbers) and the other 90% only replacing one of the two parents, this means that China's population will start to fall significantly over the next 3 to 4 generations (the next generation only reaching roughly 500 Million with the follow on generation likely being around 230 to 250 Million for the following generation and finally 115 to 125 Million for the generation after that assuming the 1 child law stays in effect). In 60 years, China's population should be below what it is now. The US is projected to only add 150 Million to the 300 Million already in the US now by 2050 and Europe will likely see similar numbers as the US (roughly half of the present population being added to the numbers now). To me, the 9 Billion number isn't looking quite as realistic given other factors (we may have a cure for AIDS by then, we may have too little farm land to feed populations causing starvation, we could have wars over resources as it's already being seen concerning water flowing through the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, the Yellowstone Caldera might erupt taking out a large number of the population in the US and Canada immediately with a large amount of people dying due to a volcanic winter due to the ash cloud created much like Krakatoa, and other aspects).
Is anyone else somewhat skeptical about the 9 Billion population figure?
Human Sex Ratio
Something to note is the various imbalances throughout the world. As can be seen, most western culture countries show an imbalance towards females while certain other cultures show imbalance towards males while others show no imbalance what-so-ever.
The one hypothesis I can see for why western culture has so many females to males could be attributed to wars, in the US the US Civil War and World War II having significant effects on the male population (600,000+ killed in the US Civil War and several hundred thousand in World War II) while Western Europe (and Australia/NZ) saw a whole male generation wiped out during World War I, the Russian and former Soviet countries seeing a large drop due to Stalin killing a proported 50+ Million of his own people, and the Bushido code professed by Japan (win or die).
Now with China and India, two countires that also took part in World War II, there is a cultural propensity for having a male child to carry on the family name. In the case of China specifically with it's one child law, this has led to female children being placed in orphanages and then being adopted out of country most of the time (pre-mid 80s) or abort (post mid-80s) until recently where the Chinese have cracked down families trying to get rid of female children. Then there is the loss of life during the Cultural Revolution (on the order of 30 to 40 Million). Now the article professes the ration of being 1.19 Males to Females, but this number comes from the Chinese government who is known to hide facts to make things look better. I have heard personal accounts of the ratio being much, much worse with number more like 1.5 or even higher (I've heard as high as 2 to 1 in worst case senario) Males to Females. Now India does not have the 1 child law like China, but there has been a push for something similar to reign in the rampant population growth there as well, but again, the culture wants males over females.
Another aspect to look at as well is the epidemic of AIDS in Africa where literally in some nations, 20% to 25% of the population is infected in some way.
So given this information, I'm not sure I can truly see the global population hitting the 9 Billion mark, there will start to be a definite slow down in the areas where population is growing quickly (China this is already occuring, but will likely also be seen in India and Africa due to other factors).
Looking at China specifically, with 10% of the population never procreated (using China's numbers) and the other 90% only replacing one of the two parents, this means that China's population will start to fall significantly over the next 3 to 4 generations (the next generation only reaching roughly 500 Million with the follow on generation likely being around 230 to 250 Million for the following generation and finally 115 to 125 Million for the generation after that assuming the 1 child law stays in effect). In 60 years, China's population should be below what it is now. The US is projected to only add 150 Million to the 300 Million already in the US now by 2050 and Europe will likely see similar numbers as the US (roughly half of the present population being added to the numbers now). To me, the 9 Billion number isn't looking quite as realistic given other factors (we may have a cure for AIDS by then, we may have too little farm land to feed populations causing starvation, we could have wars over resources as it's already being seen concerning water flowing through the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, the Yellowstone Caldera might erupt taking out a large number of the population in the US and Canada immediately with a large amount of people dying due to a volcanic winter due to the ash cloud created much like Krakatoa, and other aspects).
Is anyone else somewhat skeptical about the 9 Billion population figure?
Sith Warriors - They only class that gets a new room added to their ship after leaving Hoth, they get a Brooncloset
Einstein said Everything is Relative.
Heisenberg said Everything is Uncertain.
Therefore, everything is relatively uncertain.
Einstein said Everything is Relative.
Heisenberg said Everything is Uncertain.
Therefore, everything is relatively uncertain.