world cup thread

[Kevin]

Personally, I think Portugal is overrated even though they have the world's currently best player in their ranks, and I don't know if the Ivory Coast can really be considered to be a secret contender for the championship. But they are stronger than the teams Argentina, England, Germany etc. have to compete with.

So I don't really follow the sport closely (I don't follow most sports closely) but I do understand the game, I played a few years, and I've even coached a youth team (that was 0-4 when I took over and finished 7-4 I was proud of that).

So I went to the FIFA ranking page to get rankings but then realized that using the points they use might be a better indicator as there didn't seem to be a huge difference between team #16 and team #32 (a 99 point spread, and another 90+ point spread between #9 and #15) . Trying to pick the strongest group became interesting.

I've got the average numeric ranking and the average point rankings for each group.

Code:

A              31.25   807.5        E                26  891.75
France             9    1044        Netherlands       4    1231
Uruguay           16     899        Cameroon         19     887
Mexico            17     895        Denmark          36     767
South Africa      83     392        Japan            45     682

B                 22  888.75        F                37  797.75
Argentina          7    1076        Italy             5    1184
Greece            13     964        Paraguay         31     820
Nigeria           21     883        Slovakia         34     777
South Korea       47     632        New Zealand      78     410

C              19.25   926.5        G                34 1000.25
England            8    1068        Brazil            1    1611
United State      14     957        Portugal          3    1249
Slovenia          25     860        Ivory Coast      27     856
Algeria           30     821        North Korea     105     285

D              18.25  928.75        H              20.5 1013.25
Germany            6    1082        Spain             2    1565
Serbia            15     947        Chile            18     888
Australia         20     886        Switzerland      24     866
Ghana             32     800        Honduras         38     734

You can look at the average difference in teams (where Group C has the least variation) or you can look at power.

Based on those rankings it comes down to thresholds. If say you need to be at least an 875 rating to be considered a true threat to advance and at least an 800 to be a dark horse then you can clearly see some groups with 2 and some with 3 contenders. But if you can believe the numbers, Group G while very top heavy doesn't look at tough.

The "Group of Death" has Brazil and Portugal (even if over rated by a lot) actually looking like they have a clear path as they both have 2 other teams they should clearly beat, unless the Ivory Coast pulls off a huge upset.

But if you look at Group A with France, and then Uraguay and Mexico are basically the same team based on rankings. So you have 3 teams there that all look like it wouldn't be a surprise if they beat each other and you add in the host team (and based on the history of the event being the host does seem to be a legit bump) and that group starts to look hard to get one of those 2 spots. I think it would be considered an upset if Uraguay beat France, but not a huge upset.

The mention of Germany and England being in "easy" groups seems interesting as well as they are in the two best "top to bottom" groups. Now the Netherlands and Italy? They got easy groups, they are both in groups where the bottom team is quite weak and in the case of Italy, the #2 and #3 teams are worse than pretty much every team in the groups that England and Germany got. Based on differences in rating, England is the weakest favorite, being only 111 points better than the #2 team in their bracket, though if you consider being the favorite based on advancing they are 208 points better than the third team in their pool, based on that France is the weakest favorite, followed by Argentina, Germany, then England.

Match-ups play a part as well, but I don't have the knowledge to look at that. If this were American football I have the knowledge to say that a weak team like Detroit might have a legit chance vs a strong team like Green Bay because they have upgraded their receiving ability in the middle of the field where Green Bay is weakest at coverage and their new running back can potentially exploit the problems GB has in outside containment. Detroits new defensive line should be able to get some pass run on the GB quarterback and slow down the middle of the field running game that GB prefers. That being said, the extreme weakness in the secondary of Detroit will be easily exploited by the GB receivers, but I wouldn't be surprised by a close game even though GB might be a 12-4 team and Detroit a 4-12 team next year. I can't do that kind of analysis for World Cup teams.

But based on the rankings and if you are looking at chance to advance out of the group stage, Italy and Netherlands should be really excited at their easy draws. Spain looks like they won't have a lot of issues, and as I mentioned it would take a major upset to stop both Brazil and Portugal.

England, Germany, and Argentina look to be in the realm of only minor upsets stopping them. France has 2 other strong mid tier teams to contend with and either of them beating France is not out of the question. I would say based on the rankings, France has the toughest road to advancing to the next round, but England and Germany are in pools were the bottom team beating the top team would be the least shocking.

So my outsider view is opposite.

Now if you want to talk about the chances for the "2nd best" team in each group advancing or one of the non favorites then that changes. The "#3" with the best chance would certainly not be Ivory Coast, having Brazil and Portugal in that group really is brutal. Based on rankings I'm very curious as to how Group A will shake out. That looks like quite the potential 3 way battle there.