The new old war in Korea

[kandrathe]

But even if they're not, the South is a formidable force by itself, fully the equal of the North Korean forces.

I'd agree with that statement. NK has a few aces, which may tip the initial battle to their favor. 1) Seoul gets badly damaged by artillery in the first 24 hours creating a humanitarian crisis which must be dealt with beyond the battle, 2) NK has a full arsenal of chemical and biological weapons, and they will use them, 3) NK's paranoia has caused them to build most of their critical infrastructure in underground bunker complexes, 4) Launch hundreds of missiles at known fixed targets in SK, at Japan, and US fleet, some may be NCB tipped.

In the event of a NK first strike, I would see them destroying the US forces at the DMZ, and most of the SK force, and occupying most of SK before the US is staged to repel them. They would suffer 1/3 to 1/2 of their forces in casualties as well. Eventually, the US would gain air superiority, destroy the command and control structures, bunker complexes, and roll back the NK forces to at least as far north as Pyongyang. What happens north of the 38th parallel depends on China's disposition.

If the US does the first strike, they would be sure to paralyze NK's capability to move, or harm SK very badly.