The new old war in Korea

[Lissa]

You do realize who small SK is right? A week to move forces into position, the NKs could be at the tip of the peninsula before them. Likewise, it will take hours for properly equipped planes in Japan and Okinawa to get to Korea to assist. It also takes time to arm the planes as well as only a few planes are ready to go at a given time, most are not fueled and not armed and that will take time as well. You're talking a minimum response from Japanese and Okinawa based aircraft of atleast 6 to 8 hours, a lot can happen in that short amount of time.

North Korea is not going to conquer South Korea in eight hours, or even a week. It's not going to happen. SK has a formidable armed forces, with technological superiority, along a fortified border. They know exactly where the attack will be coming from. They watch the border with every eye they have, from space, from the DMZ, from every angle they know. They have been planning for this attack since the days of their grandfathers. The North Koreans are *not* just going to roll their tanks from the DMZ to the tip of the peninsula before the South Koreans and the US can get their pants on. This is the no.1 contingency, something they've been planning for, that everyone is aware of.

Yet, your comments make you think that within 15 minutes of NK launching an assault that SK would have air superiorty. The point is Jester, it's not as simple as you portait that SK would be able to instantly pull off a repulsion from a NK first strike. You cannot get that many aircraft in the air that quickly to defend and try to take air superiorty. In order to have air superiorty that quickly, you would literally have to have the majority of your air forces fully fueled with ordinance already onboard and your pilots sitting in the cockpits or in ready shacks to get into the planes and be in the air within a minute or two of the attack. I guarentee that NK has thought through things as well and I'm sure they would use missiles with crattering warheads to remove the SK air fields as well.

Remember, as much as the SKs have been preparing for this possibility, so have the NKs.

Let me ask you this Jester, have you looked at NKs forces? I think you might be a little surprised at their technological levels for their equipment if you did.

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Again, I suggest you go look at the NK forces. They're not as backwater as you may think when it comes to their military.

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Again, go do some research on some of the weapon systems the NKs use, you might be surprised at just what they could accomplish.

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I wouldn't take that bet. The US and SK does have some of a technological advantage, but it's not as huge a gap as you seem to think. From the way you talk, you think NK is using WW2 and equipment from the 50s, this is not the case. They are a lot more modern that you realize.

They do remarkably well for an impoverished technological backwater that discourages innovation and education. They spend 1/3 of their GDP on the military - and yet it still doesn't amount to more than 1/3 of what the South Koreans spend, on fewer troops, while only spending a few % of GDP. The North Korean Army just does not stack up against the world's most advanced nations, and that's exactly who their opponents are: the US, South Korea, Japan, and probably NATO as well.

Plus, they have an enormous military to equip. Once they start losing vehicles and equipment, they're going to have to fall back on something. They don't have the production capacity to replace their armaments, and what little they have will be blown into oblivion within weeks. That means using their stockpiles, and yes, their stockpiles include a hell of a lot of outdated equipment, including old Korean War material.

It's not just about having modern weapons, although they are well behind in that as well. It's about being able to produce them, replace them, fight with them, deal with your enemies' technology. They're behind on expertise, they're behind on training (Have you seen the estimates of their pilot's flight time? They're going to get blown away by US fliers, guaranteed.), they're behind on everything. This is not a reason to disregard their obviously enormous military power, but they are not, man for man, as effective as South Korea. I doubt they're even 2 or 3 to one, which is where they'd need to be to win at all, let alone decisively.

I bet it would cause some severe problems with C&C however. SK's government is based in Seoul and a good amount of their military leadership is going to be there as well to interface with the civillian government. A strike on Seoul could have dire consequences for the SK military.

What, you think with Seoul being where it is, that the South Koreans just plum forgot about the possibility of a strike on the capital? Question no. 1 for war with North Korea is: "What do we do when they attack Seoul right off the bat?" If they don't have an answer for that obvious question, then maybe they deserve to get beaten. But they're definitely not that stupid. If they don't have solid contingencies in place for the fall of Seoul, I would be absolutely shocked.

-Jester

Again Jester, let me reiterate. Look up NKs weapons systems. They are not as backwater as you think they are (they have Russian and Chinese weapon systems from the late 90s and also have weapon systems that they have modified for their use). The US hasn't seen significant improvements in their weapon systems since the late 90s either (most of the upgrades to US weapon systems have been tweaks and software, the only new weapon system added to the US arsenal, and the SKs don't have it, is the F22 Raptor with the closest base being Elmendorf in Alaska). The only advantage the SKs and US have on the NKs in weapon systems is the human element, the SKs and US are better trained, but the weapon systems for both NK and SK along with US theatre forcers are closer than you think.