The new old war in Korea

[Jester]

I think you give too much creedence to how quickly aircraft can get on station. While the SKs and US could get some planes on station quickly, they won't have an overwhelming force and aircraft can only carry so much ordinance.

I don't know how long it would take. But given the number of carrier groups the US has, the extent of their bases and friendly bases in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea, I would guess that North Korea would never have control of the skies, even in a pre-emptive strike, and that total air superiority would be achieved within a week. SK already has 600 modern planes, more than enough to deal with NK's outdated air force.

Also, artillery doesn't have to directly destroy things to cause a lot of problems. All the artilery has to go is cause enough structural damage to large enough buildings to bring down multiple buildings unless the damaged build goes straight down (must as the World Trade Center towers went straight down). A large building crashing into another large building can bring down both building and potentially bring down more buildings, effectively a domino effect.

Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't want to live in Seoul the day the North Koreans go to war. It would probably be hell on earth. But even the worst case of destruction for Seoul would not break South Korea.

Likewise, the goal in modern warfare is not to kill your enemy, it is to wound them so that you end up taking the wounded out of the fight and 2 to 3 others that are tending to the wounded. Why kill someone when you can take four out by just wounding one severly enough?

Because North Korea has no long game. They are surrounded, outnumbered, outgunned, outpowered. They cannot feed their people, and would likely be unable to feed the military within a few months of war. They can't bleed South Korea to death. They need to win fast, and that means not just burdening the South Koreans with causalties, but breaking their backs strategically. And I don't think they have the muscle to manage it.

Again, you're not recognizing several facets here. You're looking at a straight up numbers game and not considering other factors.

Strange, that seems to be what you're doing, claiming North Korea would win, when their *single* advantage is numbers. On every other front, they're losing. Badly.

Superior technology helps, but as been proven before, a technologically inferior force can defeat a technologically superior force if properly used (take a look at some of the tactics the Russians used against the Germans in WW2, the Russians were technologically inferior in several battles, but due to the sheer number of forces available they were able to prevail.

Human Wave tactics were not very effective even in WWII. The Germans nearly destroyed the Russians, despite an enormous advantage in numbers. They only failed because a) the Americans provided the Soviets technology, expertise, and resources in staggering quantities, b) Russia in winter is colder than a witch's tit, c) Hitler's strategic interference was ruinous, and most importantly, d) Germany, not the USSR, was surrounded by its enemies.

Times have changed since then, and sheer volume has become even less effective. North Korea, not South Korea, is cut off from the rest of the world. Both the US and South Korean militaries are highly competent, while North Korea is no doubt plagued by all the problems of a highly politicized, internally-focused army.

The deck is stacked against North Korea. They have only a middling short game, based on sheer numbers. In the medium term, they've got no chance. The only question is how much damage they could do in the meantime.

-Jester