The new old war in Korea

[Jester]

They won't nuke their own land. They want to occupy the peninsula, so why would they nuke it. They have enough force (baring US intervention) to take what they want without nukes.

North Korea is not exactly humanitarian when it comes to their populace. They want to rule ("unite") Korea, but they quite obviously have no regard for the lives of Koreans, nor the quality of life under their rule. If a few million dead and a little nuclear fallout was the price to pay for conquering the South, I have no doubt they would have paid it by now.

What deters them is the essential certainty that the would be destroyed by even trying. I don't think that the North Koreans have enough force to decisively beat the South, without any intervention at all. Their troop numbers are impressive, but they have serious problems with their economy, their technology. They are not as strong as they appear. South Korea, by contrast, is a rich, highly militarized, technological marvel. They have a smoothly functioning government, over half a million people under arms with millions more in reserve, and a fully modern army. Worldwide, they spend the 11th most on their military, 24 billion per year. That's almost the *total GDP* of North Korea, which is only 28 billion. The North is economically outclassed. If Seoul wasn't so close to the border, the South would hold all the aces.

Defensively, while an invasion of NK would probably cause a nationalistic reaction, they are reviled in SK, which would call up the entirety of its impressive army in a defensive war of survival. I don't think North Korea has the strength to defeat that, except at the cost of mutual annihilation.

I think the North Koreans understand full well how hopeless a fight would be. They maintain their level of militarization as the necessary safeguard against internal rebellion, and to prevent the US or South Korea from getting any ideas about attacking.

-Jester