12-16-2009, 04:00 PM
Quote:Will a group crazy enough to really end it all ever come to power? I wouldn't say never, but I people that fanatical usually have a hard time getting political power, which at least takes some degree of pragmatism. Never say never, though.A charismatic leader with a twisted message can bring a nation of conditioned zealots to the mass suicide of total war, and justify the most terrible of atrocities. Looking at the aggressions of the recent past centuries that was true of China, the Soviet Union, Japan, Italy, Turkey, Great Britain, France or Germany. I believe certain conditions need to exist in order for that to happen. What is missing in Iran is an overwhelming majority of the people willing to follow their leadership in that direction. I get the sense that there is a conservative group of about 30% who is anti-western, a more liberal group of about 30% (the protesters we see) who desire Iran to more westernized (in the good sense), with a middle group who is unmotivated by either direction but would probably desire they emerge from the pariah status as long as it didn't erode their "way of life". They are definitely impacted by their perceived need to be the stewards of Shia Islam, just as the Saudi's are hampered by their role with Mecca and Medina, and the Israeli's are with Jerusalem.
Come to think about it... We all seem to have that conservative / liberal / middle of the road issue in our societies, as well as varying levels of support for individual liberty. It must be a normal national angst. There is a normal push and pull between those who desire continuity of traditions and see that as stable, versus those who want to "make changes for the better". I would guess that most problems occur in nations when the middle 40% decide to move too far toward either pole.