Any Probability/Statistic majors among us?
#1
I am working on calculating the probabilities for monsters to spawn in original diablo based on the monster size information in Jarulf's guide. Essentially, monster generation works like spending money within a budget. The total "money" (size) available for monsters per level is 3614; a monter is randomly picked to spawn, and it's "price" (size) is subtracted from the total. The process is repeated until there isn't enough "money" left for any enemy. Taking dlvl 15 as an example, we have:

Code:
Balrog         2200
Azure Drake    1270
Snow Witch      980
Hell Spawn      980
Soul Burner     980
Doom Guard     2120
Steel Lord     2120
Magistrate     2000
Cabalist       2000

For example, suppose Doom Guard is randomly picked. 3600 - 2120 = 1480, therefore Azure Drake, Snow Witch, Hell Spawn, and Soul Burner can still spawn. Once any of these monsters are picked, no more monsters may spawn (not enough size available). In this case, a Soul Burner has a 1/9 * 1/4 = 1/36 chance of being picked.

Alternatively, suppose Snow Witch is randomly chosen. 3600 - 980 = 2620, therefore all monsters except for Snow Witch can still spawn. If Azure Drake is randomly chosen next, 2620 - 1270 = 1350, therefore either Hell Spawn or Soul Burner can still spawn. In this case, however, the Soul Burner now only has as a 1/9 * 1/8 * 1/2 = 1/144 chance of being picked.

How can you determine the overall probability of a particular monster being picked to spawn?
--Lang

Diabolic Psyche - the site with Diablo on the Brain!
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Any Probability/Statistic majors among us? - by the Langolier - 10-14-2009, 12:57 AM

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