Two Florida school officials won't go to jail for praying

[kandrathe]

You didn't say "corporate tax revenues". You said "revenues". That changes it from approximately right to very wrong - which was my whole point.

No. What I said was vague. If you want to split hairs, then the overall tax revenue are not down 60%... yet. Corporate tax revenues are down 60%, which is why we lost 4 million jobs. Then, individual tax revenues drop when people run out of money.

Okay, so, despite the fact that you have no actual numbers to support your assertion, you just kind of add stuff up, get a number less than half what you claimed, and then murmur a few vague phrases without support, and the number almost doubles to "getting close to 60%"?

No, I gave you real numbers. Real numbers that indicate a trend. That trend leads to federal tax revenues being down substantially for FY 2008, 2009, 2010, and maybe 2011. Now couple that with equal levels of state tax revenue declines. States that cannot borrow money, or print money as the Feds do.

The numbers you gave earlier, in the excel spreadsheet, which are known quantities, show that 2008 was almost identical to 2007.

I checked again, and you are nearly correct. I wouldn't say that -4% PIT and -15% CIT are hardly equal.

We'll have the numbers for the 2009 fiscal year soon enough. If they're as high as 30%, that would be extremely bad. If they're as high as 60% (heck, I'll sport you: 50% drop, from 2007 numbers) I'll humbly apologize for questioning you. But for the moment, it seems to me like you're exaggerating enormously.

Will it get to -50 or -60? It appears to be on track to do that baring a miraculous turn around in the economy.

My guess? Just under 20% drop in 2009 (fiscal), which combined with almost no drop in 2008 fiscal, makes... well, it makes about 20%.

-4% 2008 overall, and my guess is -30% at least for 2009. This fall, and early spring will reveal about 20 to 30 states are insolvent, especially the heavily tax dependent states. Put another way, 7 US states were solvent before the bailout.

Here is another factor to consider in round 2 of our failed economy; failing regional banking.

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