Quote:Where do you think the largest market is now for Tobacco grown in the SE USA? It is still too high in the USA, but imagine what it might be like without the propaganda. One issue is that they get teens hooked, at an age when teens believe themselves to be invulnerable, and by the time they are in their 40's and thinking about mortality it is too late and the damage has been done.That's an interesting question. What *would* it be like without the propaganda, on either the pro or anti smoking side? If I had my counterfactual crystal ball, I'd check, but sadly, I left it back home. It would be very interesting if the problem was far worse without the government campaign, but far better without the corporate ads. It would also be very interesting if the problem was much the same without it. But how are we going to distinguish between those possibilities? The econometricist in me wants some kind of regression to figure this one out. :)
There is also the possibility that misconceived advertising actually backfires. One of the major issues of smoking is (of course) peer pressure. But advertising that emphasizes "don't give in to peer pressure" sends the message that smoking is popular, but you shouldn't do it anyway. Kids probably hear half that message, and I don't think it's the right half. Similar things may pertain with drunk driving ads: scaring the hell out of people about consequences is one way to go about things, but a better way would probably be to make the activity seem unpopular. Weirdly, people seem more hung up about things that are socially embarrassing than things that are lethal.
-Jester
Edit: And, of course, someone's already checked. Looks like a smallish effect, but definitely there.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10982571