So, about Georgia...

[Occhidiangela]

I'm looking for our NATO expert, here.

The Georgians seem to have been mistakenly expecting support in this endeavour (Or have seriously misexpected Russia's response) - otherwise, they wouldn't have invaded (Not going to say they attacked first).

Not overly convinced by accusations of ethnic cleansing made by both sides... Quite convinced that they are more then happy to use cluster rockets in civilian areas.

What's your take, Occhi?

My take is the Georgian leadership took a risk, and the Russians called their bluff. So, people died. NATO membership for Georgia is, IMO, now a bit further away. Seems Bush and his team have wanted to get Georgia into NATO, as part of eastward expansion, and Russia has taken an opportunity to say "Guys, we are back, we are big, and we are no longer your doormat. Pay attention." Vlad Putin will be around for a long time, president or no. He's got power, he's got charm, he's got popular support, and he knows how to use it.

The oil pipeline plays into the Bush team's interest in Georgia as an ally, of course, but what interests me more is how the Turks play into this. So far, not so much. Getting Transcaucasus oil to market requires deals and multilateral participation, and each of the nations in the area has one reason or another not to trust the others.

Looking at a map, Georgia is neither Northern, nor Atlantic, and not part the general European land area, contiguous to "europe" proper, and as such is an odd fit for NATO in the First place.

Estonia? Makes sense. Georgia? Not so much, save the oil.

There was a good article in New York times recently on how Condi Rice sent some mixed signals, or so the authors state, and that Georgia's president felt that meant he had top cover.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/13/washin...lo.html?em

WASHINGTON — One month ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi, Georgia, for a high-profile visit that was planned to accomplish two very different goals.
-snip-
Ms. Rice’s aides say, she warned President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia not to get into a military conflict with Russia that Georgia could not win. “She told him, in no uncertain terms,

Trouble is, other public rhetoric from the Bush team was openly supportive of Georgia and anti Russian. Bush administration, for its part, tries to have it both ways. No surprise.

Back in May the Russians shot down a Georgian UAV that they said was in Russian airspace. Might have been, might not. The South Ossetians are most definitely more sympathetic to Russia than Georgia, so one has to wonder who in the hell drew the lines on the map when the USSR broke down.

Dumb lines on the map is part of the problem, which is not unique to the old Soviet republics. The leadership in Europe are not going to expend blood and treasure on Georgia, no, they are not, so making it part of NATO, with article V protection, makes zero political sense.

Occhi