06-17-2003, 11:41 PM
davcol,Jun 17 2003, 10:15 PM Wrote:I get an expected value of 6.63 Lums per run. That means (roughly) 6.5 million Countess runs to get that Zod. :) Your 37 runs to get an Um rune has one flaw-you can't downgrade the runes. The 6.63 "Lum's worth" of runes is very heavily weighted towards the higher runes, Vex alone counts for 3.44 of this, Gul 1.72, and so on. The higher runes also have an extremely low chance of dropping, so to approach the 6.63 runs you need to do millions upon millions of runs. Of course if you hit the jackpot with a vex on your first run, your average Lum value per run is astronomical :D .
But on the other hand its only 37 runs to get an Um and 330 for that Ist. Discounting the extra ingredients, and assuming the drop chances stay the same, I'd say we will be seeing a lot more higher level runes on the 1.1 ladder.
To actually make your own Um, you can look at the expected Lum value of Um runes and lower that drop. This is a meager 0.326, which translates into 745 runs to build your own Um. This is about half what you'd need to do without upgrading, and will require plenty of auxiliary ingrediants for the cube. It's also essentially guaranteed that you'll have an Um at the end of your 745 runs (or thereabouts), and that's what's nice for the masochists in the audience :blink: . Making an Ist works out to about 1486 runs and a kings ransom in auxiliary ingredients.