06-17-2003, 10:24 PM
This new formula got the mathematician in me to thinking about how much being able to upgrade runes will really help game play.
So I went over to diabloii.net and used their calculator to find the chances of the Countess dropping various runes in a single player hell game. I actually have no idea if these numbers can be trusted, but I'm assuming they are correct.
So with these probabilities in hand I computed the expected value in Lum runes for a single Countess run. I chose Lum runes since they are in the middle of the list. Using Els makes the numbers get out of hand in a hurry. So in this scale a Lum is 1, a Ko is 3, an Io is 1/3 and so forth.
I get an expected value of 6.63 Lums per run. That means (roughly) 6.5 million Countess runs to get that Zod. :)
But on the other hand its only 37 runs to get an Um and 330 for that Ist. Discounting the extra ingredients, and assuming the drop chances stay the same, I'd say we will be seeing a lot more higher level runes on the 1.1 ladder.
-davcol
So I went over to diabloii.net and used their calculator to find the chances of the Countess dropping various runes in a single player hell game. I actually have no idea if these numbers can be trusted, but I'm assuming they are correct.
So with these probabilities in hand I computed the expected value in Lum runes for a single Countess run. I chose Lum runes since they are in the middle of the list. Using Els makes the numbers get out of hand in a hurry. So in this scale a Lum is 1, a Ko is 3, an Io is 1/3 and so forth.
I get an expected value of 6.63 Lums per run. That means (roughly) 6.5 million Countess runs to get that Zod. :)
But on the other hand its only 37 runs to get an Um and 330 for that Ist. Discounting the extra ingredients, and assuming the drop chances stay the same, I'd say we will be seeing a lot more higher level runes on the 1.1 ladder.
-davcol