Quote:I was counting on some clear statements from the IMF, the WTO, and the GATT, but you show me a link where 'suggest' and 'estimated' make up the most negative claims. Not that I disagree with this. Finding tubes doesn't always mean there are WMD, as we all know ;)
There is no such thing as a smoking gun here, no 'WMD' to find. A currency has a hypothetical market valuation, and, absent a perfect market, that valuation cannot be directly measured, period. All ways of trying to get at that problem are 'suggestions' and 'estimates', because *there is no real value to be measured.* If you can find a credible economist who thinks that the Yuan is not being held down, tell me, because I know I can find a whole raft, from left wing to right wing to politically uncaring, who think it is.
Here's the WTO trade report from 2008 on China. Try the section from page 30 to 33 of the 'economic environment' section. The 'crawling peg' created by heavy capital controls prevents the Yuan from appreciating substantially against the dollar. The WTO, being a neutralist arbitrator organization, reports the concerns that this is offering a protectionist advantage to China, but does not decide on them. Nevertheless, the outlines of what is going on are spelled out well enough.
If you're looking for a confession from the Chinese, it's not going to be forthcoming. If you're looking for a condemnation from a trade organization, that's also not going to happen, it's not what they're for. If you're looking for an objective measure of currency valuation, that doesn't exist. All we have is the evidence at hand: Heavy currency controls, a basically pegged currency, and an enormous sectoral imbalance towards exports in the Chinese economy.
Since nobody is talking about going to war over this, the standard of proof required is lower than, say, finding WMDs. All I want to know is what's going on, and I feel confident we have enough to know which way the wind is blowing.
-Jester
Afterthought: What *isn't* within China's rights? It's a sovereign nation. They can do as they please, short of starting wars. There is no international body that gives them "rights", they just act however they want until someone stops them, like most countries. The question was whether what they were doing is *fair*, which is a very different measure.