10-06-2006, 08:03 PM
Quote:I'm trying to figure out how to get the information I need to carry out two related tasks ...
1. Knowing exactly which prefix or suffix is desired, and what ilvl my input charm is, I would like to be able to calculate the average number of pgems needed to roll that prefix of suffix in the horadric cube.
2. If I would be happy enough with any one of a set of magical suffixes or prefixes to stop re-rolling a charm, I would like to be able to calculate the average number of pgems needed to roll one of the prefixes or suffixes viewed as "good enough to stop re-rolling" in the horadric cube.
Other questions I'd like to be able to address ...
How many pgems would I need to budget to have a 75% chance of getting a desired prefix or suffix, or one of a set of desired prefixes or suffixes? How many pgems would I need to "budget" to have a 90% chance of getting the desired prefix or suffix, or one of a set of desired prefixes or suffixes?
If I have some way of finding out the odds of any given prefix or suffix appearing on each type of charm for a given input ilvl, that's all I need. I can work out the statistics from there. Any help anybody here could provide in finding out how to access the information I would need to get started would be appreciated.
First, you can use something like this affix calculator to find the probabilities. Assuming the different desired affixes are mutually exclusive (that is, they all are or include a prefix, or they all are or include a suffix), you can just add up all the probabilities to get a single probability of a desired affix combination. If either a prefix or a suffix would be sufficient, it gets a bit messier to calculate.
Let P be the probability of a desired affix combination (if you have a 5% chance, P is .05).
3/P would be the average number of perfect gems needed to get such an affix combination.
3*ln(1-Q)/ln(1-P) would be the number of perfect gems needed to have the probability Q of getting the desired affix. Just plug in .75 or .9 to get those values.