At The Point of a Bayonet

[Assur]

The Shia are not the good guys, nor are they our friends. They are on their own side, and have their own agenda.

The current emboldening of Iran is exactly what I predicted as a probable bad outcomeof our going to Iraq,. The growth of Shia influence plays directly into the hands of the Shia in Iran, whose Islamic Revolution is the real strategic issue in the Mid East, and has been since 1979.

Occhi

There are no good options in Iraq. There are two realistic possibilies: either a Shia/Kurd alliance takes over and the Sunnis get it in the neck. That will strenghten Iran but would provide an exit strategy for the US. The other possibility is that Iraq splits up into a number of feuding entities a la Lebanon 20 years ago. That wouldn't be so positive for Iran, they have enough minorities of their own, but it also wouldn't profit the US.

Of course it might also happen that everything turns out fine in the long run, i.e. peace and democracy, if US troops stay the course but I wouldn't bet on it. Personally I think that during the presidential elections in 2008 the candidates will fall over themselves to promise a quick American withdrawal.

BTW it's interesting that while everybody is watching Lebanon and Iraq Islamic militias are successfully taking over Somalia and turning it into an emirate.