08-15-2003, 03:21 PM
If you want to see what an effective bit of multilateral cooperation can do for the efforts to curb terrorism, check this out:
Bad Guy Caught
If you want to see "fear as a motivator" at it worst, consider:
Fear Mongering
The man portable, hand held, Infra Red guided anti aircraft missile has been around for about a generation. The Soviet SA-7 was an early effective model, though easily defeated by flares and other IR counter measures, while the SA-13 and the U.S. Stinger variants took a "good idea" and improved upon it in terms of the missile's ability to hit what it want to, the plane, and not something else.
Thousands and thousands of the simple yet effective SA-7 were produced and were held in the inventories of many nations, not to mention "non nation" parties.
Stingers were provided to the mujahadeen in Afghanistan during the 80's, and it was common knowledge by the mid 1990's that some hundreds, or even up to a thousand (pick your source and its credibility) were still, shall we say, "unaccounted for." For the last 10-20 years, it could have happened any day of the week, in any city on the planet. I doubt the Russians have 100 % accountability of every SA-13/7
The 'threat' is as old as the terroristberation movements sponsored by the Soviets in the late 1970's, and has thus been around for a generation, but was not well publicized. Those of us who knew looked at the odds and figured:
why worry? Odds are, it won't be me. Life is too short to drive yourself nuts over those things. A similar approach to terrorist attacks for the normal citizen, or for that matter, being in an aircraft accident while on travel. Odds are against it happening to me, don't worry. If you can't stop worrying, either get more Guinness, or see a shrink. ;)
Last year, there was an interesting story from Kenya about a suspected attempt to use an SA-7 to take down an airliner there. A recent arrest in the US of a British arms dealer handling hand held missiles makes headlines.
Why? To whose benifit is it to "heighten" fear? A terrorist. What is the f****ing point of having a "terror threat level" with its color codes, etc? None, except a message that supports the agenda of the terrorist, the perpetuation of fear, and someone who want to benefit from fear mongering. The 1993 attack on the WTC was a massive wake up call: hey, some one is trying to blow you up. The OKC bombing was a massive wake up call: hey, someone took a Hollywood/Clancy Novel idea and put it to work. What's so special about New York, folks? This is an 'threat.' Maybe the likelihood is seen as higher since 9-11, but I'd guess otherwise. Post 9-11, the efforts to get more help from more international players on tracking down and getting hands on terrorists has been, slowly but surely, having some positive results.
Practical solutions to the hand held missile? Few, given the nature of a rear or forward quarter IR shot on a turbo fan engine the state of the art of IR seeker heads.
To defeat an IR missile, you need to
1. see it or know it is coming
2. fly a flight profile that allows you to deceive it (standard departure from an Airport aint it)
3. get beyond its effective range and-or ceiling
4. use countermeasures, both active and passive
5. build aircraft with low IR signatures
Any, all, or a combination of these steps can mitigate or reduce the effectiveness of an IR missile attack of the Stinger-SA-7 variety.
Some problems:
1. Smarter and smarter seeker heads are deception resistant. The U.S. and the French both make some lovely technology along this line.
2. Civil airliners fly predictable patterns. This allows for setting up shots in optimal geometries for the sweetest pK. Given the generaly short range of the hand held IR missile, security personnel can put down a template and know the most likely areas from which a missile fired is likely to be attempted and effective, and can thus concentrate search or suppression measures is finite areas.
3. The aircrew in the typical airlliner can't see the rear quarter missile (that cockpit aint no green house) and can not maneuver a pig like a 747 to avoid the seeker heads on even crude missiles like the SA-7.
4. Flares are generaly deployed once missile launch is detected. Ya gotta see it to defeat it.
5. IR suppression equipment is expensive to back fit into existing aircraft, and has its own shortcomings.
So, what to do? Work on intelligent security measures. And, don't spread panic. Whoops, once again the media and others are the dupes of the terrorist.
Fear mongering plays into the hands of the terrorist, whose field of battle is the human mind.
Bad Guy Caught
If you want to see "fear as a motivator" at it worst, consider:
Fear Mongering
The man portable, hand held, Infra Red guided anti aircraft missile has been around for about a generation. The Soviet SA-7 was an early effective model, though easily defeated by flares and other IR counter measures, while the SA-13 and the U.S. Stinger variants took a "good idea" and improved upon it in terms of the missile's ability to hit what it want to, the plane, and not something else.
Thousands and thousands of the simple yet effective SA-7 were produced and were held in the inventories of many nations, not to mention "non nation" parties.
Stingers were provided to the mujahadeen in Afghanistan during the 80's, and it was common knowledge by the mid 1990's that some hundreds, or even up to a thousand (pick your source and its credibility) were still, shall we say, "unaccounted for." For the last 10-20 years, it could have happened any day of the week, in any city on the planet. I doubt the Russians have 100 % accountability of every SA-13/7
The 'threat' is as old as the terroristberation movements sponsored by the Soviets in the late 1970's, and has thus been around for a generation, but was not well publicized. Those of us who knew looked at the odds and figured:
why worry? Odds are, it won't be me. Life is too short to drive yourself nuts over those things. A similar approach to terrorist attacks for the normal citizen, or for that matter, being in an aircraft accident while on travel. Odds are against it happening to me, don't worry. If you can't stop worrying, either get more Guinness, or see a shrink. ;)
Last year, there was an interesting story from Kenya about a suspected attempt to use an SA-7 to take down an airliner there. A recent arrest in the US of a British arms dealer handling hand held missiles makes headlines.
Why? To whose benifit is it to "heighten" fear? A terrorist. What is the f****ing point of having a "terror threat level" with its color codes, etc? None, except a message that supports the agenda of the terrorist, the perpetuation of fear, and someone who want to benefit from fear mongering. The 1993 attack on the WTC was a massive wake up call: hey, some one is trying to blow you up. The OKC bombing was a massive wake up call: hey, someone took a Hollywood/Clancy Novel idea and put it to work. What's so special about New York, folks? This is an 'threat.' Maybe the likelihood is seen as higher since 9-11, but I'd guess otherwise. Post 9-11, the efforts to get more help from more international players on tracking down and getting hands on terrorists has been, slowly but surely, having some positive results.
Practical solutions to the hand held missile? Few, given the nature of a rear or forward quarter IR shot on a turbo fan engine the state of the art of IR seeker heads.
To defeat an IR missile, you need to
1. see it or know it is coming
2. fly a flight profile that allows you to deceive it (standard departure from an Airport aint it)
3. get beyond its effective range and-or ceiling
4. use countermeasures, both active and passive
5. build aircraft with low IR signatures
Any, all, or a combination of these steps can mitigate or reduce the effectiveness of an IR missile attack of the Stinger-SA-7 variety.
Some problems:
1. Smarter and smarter seeker heads are deception resistant. The U.S. and the French both make some lovely technology along this line.
2. Civil airliners fly predictable patterns. This allows for setting up shots in optimal geometries for the sweetest pK. Given the generaly short range of the hand held IR missile, security personnel can put down a template and know the most likely areas from which a missile fired is likely to be attempted and effective, and can thus concentrate search or suppression measures is finite areas.
3. The aircrew in the typical airlliner can't see the rear quarter missile (that cockpit aint no green house) and can not maneuver a pig like a 747 to avoid the seeker heads on even crude missiles like the SA-7.
4. Flares are generaly deployed once missile launch is detected. Ya gotta see it to defeat it.
5. IR suppression equipment is expensive to back fit into existing aircraft, and has its own shortcomings.
So, what to do? Work on intelligent security measures. And, don't spread panic. Whoops, once again the media and others are the dupes of the terrorist.
Fear mongering plays into the hands of the terrorist, whose field of battle is the human mind.
Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the Men 'O War!
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
In War, the outcome is never final. --Carl von Clausewitz--
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum
John 11:35 - consider why.
In Memory of Pete
