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+--- Thread: Curious observation (/thread-9047.html)
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Curious observation - --Pete - 03-26-2004
Hi,
Also, having a birthday in january sucks because I grew up getting birthday or Christmas presents, but not both.
My brother-in-law's birthday is the 27th of December. We make it a point to celebrate his birthday separately from Xmas ;)
Discuss.
Yessir. Done sir. :)
--Pete
Curious observation - whyBish - 03-26-2004
Pete,Mar 27 2004, 09:35 AM Wrote:xWell, thats the stat for a given day, but how many times are you sampling?
--Pete
The chance that there exists a day in the year where no lurker has a birthday
would be much higher.
--Edit Stop quoting whole posts :P
Curious observation - --Pete - 03-27-2004
Hi,
Yes, of course. The probability that someone has a birthday on any particular day is just 1 - (probability that no one has a birthday on that say). The probability that at least one person has a birthday on every day of the year is just that last number to the 365.25 power. So, the probability that there exists at least one day when no one has a birthday is just one minus this last number. Or, at least that's my zeroth order answer without much thought.
For the case of 500 people, the "answers" are
Probability of no birthday on a given day, P1 = (364.25/365.25)^500 = 0.2539
Probability of a birthday on a given day, P2 = 1 - P1 = 0.7461
Probability of a birthday on every day of the year, P3 = P2^365.25 = 3.455e-47
Probability of one or more days without a birthday, P4 = 1 - P3 = virtually 1
If we increase it to 2000 people, we get
P1 = 0.004156
P2 = 0.9958
P3 = 0.2185
P4 = 0.7815
(all calculations done on the Windoz calculator, no intermediate rounding, and answers *not* checked).
All such calculations can be fun. But they are nothing but counting problems. Sampling problems are much more interesting, IMO ;)
--Pete
Curious observation - Obi2Kenobi - 03-28-2004
Quote: We need to have a "Spend time with your SO day" on June 25.SO?
Curious observation - Griselda - 03-28-2004
no terrible acronyms
Curious observation - Obi2Kenobi - 03-29-2004
Well, then. I guess I need to find a significant other to spend time with. A day after my Birth day. :)
Curious observation - Lady Vashj - 03-29-2004
A/S/L? ;)
Curious observation - AtomicKitKat - 03-29-2004
I'm bored, and have no SO, so I might as well list mine here.
23/m/Singapore(South East Asia)
Curious observation - Obi2Kenobi - 03-30-2004
Let's see...
Too young for you/Can't think of witty quip to put here/My house, in front of my computer (like usual)
Curious observation - Lady Vashj - 03-30-2004
Obi2Kenobi,Mar 30 2004, 12:00 AM Wrote:Let's see...How do you know you're too young? I'm barely legal myself.
Too young for you/Can't think of witty quip to put here/My house, in front of my computer (like usual)
I'd be just fine with a straight answer, thankee much.
Where is your house, is what I'd like to know.
Curious observation - Obi2Kenobi - 03-30-2004
Quote: How do you know you're too young? I'm barely legal myself.Because I'm not even "legal." (14)
And my house is in Colorado (USA). :)
Curious observation - AtomicKitKat - 03-31-2004
Obi2Kenobi,Mar 30 2004, 11:16 PM Wrote:Because I'm not even "legal." (14)Naga Trollops!
And my house is in Colorado (USA). :)
Curious observation - Lady Vashj - 03-31-2004
Obi2Kenobi,Mar 30 2004, 11:16 PM Wrote:And my house is in Colorado (USA). :)Colorado, huh? Too far away, all other things being equal (which they're not).
Curious observation - Obi2Kenobi - 03-31-2004
Nifty Tripods