The new old war in Korea

[kandrathe]

So, in case you missed the news lately, South Korea (with US Navy help) raised the debris of a ship that mysteriously exploded and sunk a while ago, and found evidence of a North Korean torpedo. South Korea reacted to this news with a full arsenal of diplomatic measures, outlined in this article. And, rather than attempting to defuse a situation with a simple "We regret this incident, and apologize for the mistake", in which they are clearly seen by the entire world as the provocateurs, the DPRK has issued the following insane saber rattle;

"The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, accordingly, formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the north and the south and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation.

In this connection, the following measures will be taken at the first phase:

1. All relations with the puppet authorities will be severed.
2. There will be neither dialogue nor contact between the authorities during (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak's tenure of office.
3. The work of the Panmunjom Red Cross liaison representatives will be completely suspended.
4. All communication links between the north and the south will be cut off.
5. The Consultative Office for North-South Economic Cooperation in the Kaesong Industrial Zone will be frozen and dismantled and all the personnel concerned of the south side will be expelled without delay.
6. We will start all-out counterattack against the puppet group's 'psychological warfare against the north.
7. The passage of south Korean ships and airliners through the territorial waters and air of our side will be totally banned.
8. All the issues arising in the inter-Korean relations will be handled under a wartime law.

There is no need to show any mercy or patience for such confrontation maniacs, sycophants and traitors and wicked warmongers as the (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak group."

I wonder what is in store for the follow on phases... Any thoughts? I suspect the first will be a name change to the "The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea".

[Lissa]

Well, it's not really a new war, it's a war that has never concluded.

As to what's going on, NK is wanting attention again, they don't think they're getting as much play on the world stage as they think they should. Thing is, if this does come to blows, China may tell NK that they're on their own this time. China is annoyed quite a bit with NK.

What will happen next is anyone's guess, but no matter what NK does right now, they're in a lose lose situation.

[Ashock]

So, in case you missed the news lately, South Korea (with US Navy help) raised the debris of a ship that mysteriously exploded and sunk a while ago, and found evidence of a North Korean torpedo. South Korea reacted to this news with a full arsenal of diplomatic measures, outlined in this article. And, rather than attempting to defuse a situation with a simple "We regret this incident, and apologize for the mistake", in which they are clearly seen by the entire world as the provocateurs, the DPRK has issued the following insane saber rattle;

"The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, accordingly, formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the north and the south and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation.

In this connection, the following measures will be taken at the first phase:

1. All relations with the puppet authorities will be severed.
2. There will be neither dialogue nor contact between the authorities during (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak's tenure of office.
3. The work of the Panmunjom Red Cross liaison representatives will be completely suspended.
4. All communication links between the north and the south will be cut off.
5. The Consultative Office for North-South Economic Cooperation in the Kaesong Industrial Zone will be frozen and dismantled and all the personnel concerned of the south side will be expelled without delay.
6. We will start all-out counterattack against the puppet group's 'psychological warfare against the north.
7. The passage of south Korean ships and airliners through the territorial waters and air of our side will be totally banned.
8. All the issues arising in the inter-Korean relations will be handled under a wartime law.

There is no need to show any mercy or patience for such confrontation maniacs, sycophants and traitors and wicked warmongers as the (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak group."

I wonder what is in store for the follow on phases... Any thoughts? I suspect the first will be a name change to the "The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea".

It's simple, really. Last year, NK lost an exchange with SK.
This year, they are taking revenge.... because they know that with the US having a toothless government, there is no one to stop them from doing whatever they want, or almost whatever they want. They know we will give them warnings about giving them more warnings and they are laughing at us.

[kandrathe]

Well, it's not really a new war, it's a war that has never concluded.

As to what's going on, NK is wanting attention again, they don't think they're getting as much play on the world stage as they think they should. Thing is, if this does come to blows, China may tell NK that they're on their own this time. China is annoyed quite a bit with NK.

What will happen next is anyone's guess, but no matter what NK does right now, they're in a lose lose situation.

I would think that China will do what is in the best interest of China, and not really care about world reaction this time. No one will mount an opposition to China. I think it might still be a toss up as to whether China will shrug, or get involved. If they do get involved, then it would be stale-mate again.

You are right about the lose - lose situation in NK. They are really just China's crazy tool, which occasionally get used to beat up the Asian market for China's gain. I read an article in the Guardian about this perhaps being Obama's war mistake, just as Iraq was Bush's war mistake.

[Jester]

Here's the NKDH: the North Korean Diplomatic Heuristic.

1) Make an agreement not to be crazy anymore, in exchange for nice stuff.
2) Act crazy.
3) Repeat.

As to whether this becomes "Obama's dumb war", I think this is a nonsensical comparison. Obama is not looking to attack North Korea. If NK does not fire the first shot* neither the US nor South Korea is going to pull the trigger. If North Korea does commit to a war, the US would be obligated to defend, not least by the fact that US troops are already on the front lines. That wouldn't be a stupid war, that would be a necessary war.

-Jester

*That is to say, forces a war, rather than just sinking a ship.

[Lissa]

Well, it's not really a new war, it's a war that has never concluded.

As to what's going on, NK is wanting attention again, they don't think they're getting as much play on the world stage as they think they should. Thing is, if this does come to blows, China may tell NK that they're on their own this time. China is annoyed quite a bit with NK.

What will happen next is anyone's guess, but no matter what NK does right now, they're in a lose lose situation.

I would think that China will do what is in the best interest of China, and not really care about world reaction this time. No one will mount an opposition to China. I think it might still be a toss up as to whether China will shrug, or get involved. If they do get involved, then it would be stale-mate again.

Thing is, China's quite annoyed with Pyongyang has been doing. China has told them in so many words to shape up or get no help. Pyongyang refuses to shape up, so China will just let them twist in the wind. Besides, if KJI is stupid enough to attack and NK gets beat down, that's one less nuclear armed state near China that China needs to worry about (and yes, China does not like that NK has nukes, not one bit).

You are right about the lose - lose situation in NK. They are really just China's crazy tool, which occasionally get used to beat up the Asian market for China's gain. I read an article in the Guardian about this perhaps being Obama's war mistake, just as Iraq was Bush's war mistake.

They haven't been listening to China for most of the past decade. Since they refuse to listen to China and pose a potential threat (because of their Nukes), China won't stand up for them.

And like Jester said, if NK fires the first shot, this is a defensive action by the US and would be looked on favorably by the US populous much as Afghanistan is far more favorably looked upon by the US populous than Iraq.

[NuurAbSaal]

That wouldn't be a stupid war, that would be a necessary war.

-Jester

The nukes make this case "interesting". With how little is known about the actual goings-on in North Korea, and given their extreme rhetoric (and possible/probable insanity of their leader/puppet), I think usage of nuclear weaponry is far more likely in a Korean war scenario than anywhere else in the world.

And that's scary. Doesn't make the possible war less necessary, but kind of makes you wish for alternatives in getting rid of the crazies in NK.

take care
Tarabulus

[Jester]

I think usage of nuclear weaponry is far more likely in a Korean war scenario than anywhere else in the world.

I think you're right, but there's an important caveat. Unlike most other nuclear-armed powers, NK has pretty shoddy capacity. This isn't Russia vs. US, It's-all-over-but-for-the-roaches nuclear war. It might be a few million people dying in Seoul. But, for a nuclear war, it wouldn't be large-scale.

Not that Armageddon really needs a range of distinctions to clarify just how bad it would be. A new Korean war would be a massive bloodbath, even if it didn't just turn into a gigantic nuclear crater.

I think China would probably cut North Korea loose, rather than risk being vaporized by the US. But that would be pretty small consolation.

-Jester

[Chesspiece_face]

A new Korean war would be a massive bloodbath, even if it didn't just turn into a gigantic nuclear crater.

-Jester

Even in the best case scenario it would be a massive bloodbath. NK has essentially no domestic infrastruture or food production. The 23 million people that live there do so completely beholden to the regime. Even if it were somehow possible that an altercation with NK could be accomplished with only casualties to the NK regime it would end up causing the greatest humanitarian crisis the world has seen with millions of refugees flooding into the surrounding countries and end up requiring the cooperation of muliple Asian states who have nothing but animosity towards each other.

[Crusader]

Take the hypothetical case that NK goes batshit crazy (more then usual) and throws a nuke on SK vaporising a city there. How would the world respond? NK and SK would go to full-scale war again, that's a given. But would the US (NATO) nuke NK in retailliation? Doubtful, especially if China forbids it (and it will because the fallout will likely spill over China), because full-scale nuclear war between USA vs. China = end of the world scenario. Not only that, but China owns the USA financially with it's massive debts and can bankrupt it at will. Would the USA (NATO) invade NK with China's consent? Perhaps, but what then? Another endless war like Iraq and Pakistan is the last thing the USA needs or can afford. That's the knot the USA is twisted in. Because China probably won't allow the USA to invade it's neighbour the USA is severely limited in it's options.

Would the world intervene? Possibly. The UN will condemn it (yawn) and impose massive sanctions, as far as veto holder China will allow. Would NATO mobilise for war? Again, only so far as China allows it, because NATO will not risk war with China. I think that in the end it comes down to the question how pissed off China will be at NK and if it will withdraw it's support. The moment it does, NK will be crushed, but that may not be in the best interest of China.

Discuss.

[--Pete]

Hi,

I think that in the end it comes down to the question how pissed off China will be at NK and if it will withdraw it's support. The moment it does, NK will be crushed, . . .

I'll skip the rest and just make a comment on this point. The only ways NK will be crushed is if either China does the crushing or the USA remembers Napoleon's saying about omelets. As long as we go to war and try to hurt nobody, so long will we have these never ending wars.

--Pete

[Taelas]

I hope that if ANY nukes are dropped the rest of the world bands together to descend upon the one who dropped the nuke like a tidal wave. If a nuke counterstrike would destroy their capability to launch another nuke, then that's what I think should happen. A nuclear war would have to be stopped quickly and decisively before it escalates, and it is in everyone's best interest to see that this happens.

Launching a nuke is probably the most suicidal thing North Korea could attempt.

[Jester]

But would the US (NATO) nuke NK in retailliation? Doubtful, especially if China forbids it (and it will because the fallout will likely spill over China), because full-scale nuclear war between USA vs. China = end of the world scenario

If North Korea drops a *nuclear weapon* on one of the world's largest cities, then all bets are off. Not even China has the diplomatic clout to deal with the results of that - a holocaust of 10 million people, just blown away.

Besides, the response makes no sense. If the US launched a few of their own in retaliation at North Korea what incentive could China possibly have to turn a moderately bad situation into a global armageddon? Spite? To preserve their reputation? We're talking about total destruction.

Not only that, but China owns the USA financially with it's massive debts and can bankrupt it at will.

Not even close. The US owes China about one trillion dollars (about 3/4 of a trillion officially) and that's denominated in US dollars, which the US government can legally print. If the US was faced with a major *strategic* choice like nuclear war, the money would not stand in their way, nor would China have enough leverage to "bankrupt" the US. A single year of big spending, or the DoD budget for two years, would be enough to wipe the books clean. A strategic inflation would also help vaporize that debt, although at a price.

Discuss.

I think you vastly overstate Chinese diplomatic clout. They are powerful, but they are not the emperors of the universe. If North Korea unilaterally starts a nuclear war, China's UN veto isn't going to stop the retaliation. Think of 3000 September 11ths, all at once. That's the kind of disaster the international community would be faced with.

China would cut NK loose.

-Jester

[Nystul]

I think you vastly overstate Chinese diplomatic clout. They are powerful, but they are not the emperors of the universe. If North Korea unilaterally starts a nuclear war, China's UN veto isn't going to stop the retaliation. Think of 3000 September 11ths, all at once. That's the kind of disaster the international community would be faced with.

Absolutely. The situation would be dictated by military strategy and I think things would happen very quickly. I don't know enough about North Korea's capabilities to speculate on whether they would face immediate nuclear retaliation, but there would be something happening to try to immediate disrupt their military capabilities, and that would just be the start. Of course their would be diplomacy with China, but there wouldn't be time for posturing. Chinese government could possibly save face by condemning North Korea's atrocity, but in any case they would have nothing to gain by counterattacking the U.S or European nations.

For what it's worth, I don't think the North Korean regime is really that crazy. They have their own warped forms of posturing and propaganda and trying to get a bigger seat at the table. I don't think they are crazy enough to open war with a nuclear strike.

[kandrathe]

Some things to consider about war with the DPRK;

* 1.2 million man army with 2/3rds of them stationed within 60 miles of the DMZ, along with thousands of tanks and APC's. 11,000 240mm multiple rocket launchers and 170mm self-propelled guns aimed at Seoul alone. They can mobilize this force with 24 hours notice.
* probably have enriched enough material for >10 and < 25 nuclear warheads (with about 2.5 to 5 Kt yields)
* They are the world's largest exporter of ballistic missiles and technology, and have hundreds of (Hwasong 5, 6) SCUD type (570km), and many dozens of No-Dong type missiles (1500km), and a couple dozen Taepodong type (2300+ Km) type missiles.
* The paranoia of the leadership means that even a small surgical strike to cripple their Yongbyon reactor would most likely be viewed as a prelude to total war, and the DPRK response would be unpredictable.
* North Korea would most likely expend their nuclear arsenal attacking targets off the peninsula, namely aiming at Japan, US bases, and other targets valued most highly by the west. Hence, why we have deployed batteries of Patriot-AC2 anti-missile defenses around the region.
* They might expect to sweep through the peninsula with their conventional forces, or just take Seoul as a bargaining chip.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/o...n-5027.htm

There would be no need to retaliate with nuclear weapons, since we have overwhelming conventional forces to destroy North Korea. But, I don't think China would stay out of it. I think they would still use NK as a tool to manipulate the situation to their advantage. I think they would mobilize a sizable force (16th group army, possibly two others in the Shenyang Military Command), and be ready at the border, or even move into North Korea.

[Jester]

If North Korea has 10 to 25 nuclear weapons in the 2.5-5 kiloton range, that's peanuts in the world of nuclear weaponry. Those are at best tactical weapons, and while raining them down on Seoul would no doubt cause hundreds of thousands of casualties, they would fail to even destroy the whole city. Even Fat Man and Little Boy were three to five times larger than those. A single US Ohio-class sub can carry about forty times that much firepower.

Now, nuclear war is nuclear war, and it should be avoided at almost any cost. But surely NK is not crazy enough to try and use that dismal amount of firepower to start a war against the whole world.

There would be no need to retaliate with nuclear weapons, since we have overwhelming conventional forces to destroy North Korea.

North Korea is a fortress. I do not doubt that the US alone, regardless of international support, could grind them into a fine paste, but there would be serious costs involved. I'd even give the South Korean army pretty good odds, without US support.

In the event of a first-strike, the door to nuclear retaliation would have been opened by the only act that could ever really justify it - an unprovoked nuclear attack against civilian targets. I would certainly hope for a conventional, rather than nuclear solution, but even I could see why nukes would be on the table, if Seoul was incinerated.

But, I don't think China would stay out of it. I think they would still use NK as a tool to manipulate the situation to their advantage. I think they would mobilize a sizable force (1-2 million), and be ready at the border, or even move into North Korea.

What would China be playing for, deploying millions of troops to defend a regime that just committed the largest single atrocity in human history?* Hoping to score some diplomatic brownie points by backing the international pariah? Hoping to prop up a regime that gains them nothing, in exchange for royally pissing off the entire world? I don't see what advantage they could possibly gain in this scenario. They might extract some value out of acquiescing to an invasion, but they wouldn't gain anything by mobilizing against it.

-Jester

*Yes, I understand I am speaking in absolute, not relative terms.

[Lissa]

Something a lot of people need to realize here, NK doesn't need to use a Nuke to devastate Seoul, Seoul is within artillery range of the DMZ (actually under maximum artillery range). NK could easily demolish Seoul with use of rocket and cannon based artillery without ever going to WMDs.

Likewise, KJI wants to control all of the Korean Peninsula, so he wouldn't want to use a nuke if he wants to take over the land there. He would definitely go convential on the Korean Peninsula, and, with the fact that he has one of the largest military forces in the world (1.2 Million places him in the top 5, if not the top 3), it would be enough to occupy SK fully and still have enough home guard forces to deal with potential troublemakers in the North. Even though NK equipment is old and outdated, enough equipment can help win.

If the NKs are going to go nuclear on this, they're going to use a missile and either hit Japan, some part of western Alaska, or try for Hawaii. We know that their missiles are good enough to hit Japan and could reach some low population areas of western Alaska, but Hawaii is the big question.

[Jester]

Something a lot of people need to realize here, NK doesn't need to use a Nuke to devastate Seoul, Seoul is within artillery range of the DMZ (actually under maximum artillery range). NK could easily demolish Seoul with use of rocket and cannon based artillery without ever going to WMDs.

If the South Koreans and the US just sat there and took it, sure. But the North Koreans would find themselves with a pretty small window of opportunity. They'd lose control of the skies almost immediately. They're already surrounded by sea. The DMZ is, ironically, the most militarized spot on earth, and the pushback by land would happen within a week.

So, they'd have to bring a hell of a lot of artillery to bear on Seoul, because they wouldn't get very long to get the job done before the Americans would be in Pyongyang.

He would definitely go convential on the Korean Peninsula, and, with the fact that he has one of the largest military forces in the world (1.2 Million places him in the top 5, if not the top 3), it would be enough to occupy SK fully and still have enough home guard forces to deal with potential troublemakers in the North. Even though NK equipment is old and outdated, enough equipment can help win.

Sure, North Korea is in the top 5, in terms of deployment. But South Korea is not so far behind, and their principal ally is the US. Modern war is also not primarily about human waves, but about the smart use of combined arms, technological superiority, and supplies. Compare military budgets, rather than troop strengths. There, the South Koreans are far ahead, and that's even before we talk about the US.

North Korea has no chance of holding the peninsula. If things go maximally well for them, they can force a war of mutual devastation, but even that would involve catching the South Koreans with their pants down, which is very unlikely on that most watched of borders.

If the NKs are going to go nuclear on this, they're going to use a missile and either hit Japan, some part of western Alaska, or try for Hawaii. We know that their missiles are good enough to hit Japan and could reach some low population areas of western Alaska, but Hawaii is the big question.

While not to minimize the devastation of a nuclear assault, the North Koreans are simply not capable of truly massive destruction in Hawaii. Even if everything goes to plan with their missiles, they just don't have the firepower. They might kill tens or even hundreds of thousands of people, but they would be hard pressed to even decimate (see: other thread) the population of Hawaii, let alone wipe it out. Even if they hit smack dab in the middle of Honolulu, it's just not that large.

-Jester

[kandrathe]

If North Korea has 10 to 25 nuclear weapons in the 2.5-5 kiloton range, that's peanuts in the world of nuclear weaponry. Those are at best tactical weapons, and while raining them down on Seoul would no doubt cause hundreds of thousands of casualties, they would fail to even destroy the whole city. Even Fat Man and Little Boy were three to five times larger than those. A single US Ohio-class sub can carry about forty times that much firepower.

Yes, they are small. And, probably unreliable as well. I think the impact would be in the psychological effect of launching a nuke at US bases in Japan, or a major city, at Guam, or Alaska (Shemya, Cobra Dane). What purpose did Saddam have for launching SCUDS into Isreal? The purpose of NK's nuclear arsenal is to provide deterrence. It does not give them strategic advantage on the peninsula, but are used to hold the US at bay. The reason for launching one or two would be to let the US know that the stakes for continuing may be too high. Note: http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/prolif97/pg7.gif NK missiles aren't known for their accuracy, so I doubt they could hit anything as far away as Hawaii, or deep into Alaska, but they would try. To accomplish their goals, a successful launch and consequent explosion would be sufficient.

Now, nuclear war is nuclear war, and it should be avoided at almost any cost. But surely NK is not crazy enough to try and use that dismal amount of firepower to start a war against the whole world.

I don't think they see themselves against the world, just the traitors to the South and the US.

North Korea is a fortress. I do not doubt that the US alone, regardless of international support, could grind them into a fine paste, but there would be serious costs involved. I'd even give the South Korean army pretty good odds, without US support.

I'd describe NK more as a powder keg, ready to explode if anyone lights a match. Estimates are that the first 24 hours of conflict would see SK loses of 1-2 million, and NK would have about double that. That is the consequence of 60 years of a divided Korea standing with cocked pistols held to each others skulls.

In the event of a first-strike, the door to nuclear retaliation would have been opened by the only act that could ever really justify it - an unprovoked nuclear attack against civilian targets. I would certainly hope for a conventional, rather than nuclear solution, but even I could see why nukes would be on the table, if Seoul was incinerated.

They won't nuke their own land. They want to occupy the peninsula, so why would they nuke it. They have enough force (baring US intervention) to take what they want without nukes.

What would China be playing for, deploying millions of troops to defend a regime that just committed the largest single atrocity in human history?* Hoping to score some diplomatic brownie points by backing the international pariah? Hoping to prop up a regime that gains them nothing, in exchange for royally pissing off the entire world? I don't see what advantage they could possibly gain in this scenario. They might extract some value out of acquiescing to an invasion, but they wouldn't gain anything by mobilizing against it.

China wants expansion, and to rightfully regain the Goguryeo. This would be the perfect excuse to expand their empire into new territory, and set up a true puppet communist regime they can control.

China's Intentions in the DPRK

[TheDragoon]

Even if they hit smack dab in the middle of Honolulu, it's just not that large.

And that's even pretty suspect given the lack of accuracy by the North Korean missiles. Most likely if they tried, it would end up 100's if not 1000's of miles off course, splashing down in the ocean.

I did a quick search and found an interesting table of distances from North Korea: 5,600km to Anchorage, 7,100km to Honolulu and 7,900 km to Seattle. Given the current missiles that North Korea has, the Taepo Dong 1 could hit Japan or Guam while Taepo Dong 2 (suspected of up to 6,900km) would likely still fall short of Honolulu.